feat: prediction market endpoint — agent manifest milestone

src/app/api/v1/predictions/agent-manifest-milestone/route.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,115 @@
+import { NextResponse } from "next/server";
+import { getAttributionMetrics } from "@/lib/attribution-health";
+import { getGDPHistory } from "@/lib/gdp-history";
+
+export const dynamic = "force-dynamic";
+
+const QUESTION = "Will 100 agents declare wallets via the Agent Wallet Manifest before August?";
+const TARGET = 100;
+const DEADLINE = new Date("2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z");
+const MANIFEST_GUIDE = "https://www.zettaai.co/manifest";
+
+export async function GET() {
+  const [metrics, history] = await Promise.allSettled([
+    getAttributionMetrics(),
+    getGDPHistory(30),
+  ]);
+
+  const current =
+    metrics.status === "fulfilled"
+      ? metrics.value.manifest_attributed_agents
+      : 0;
+
+  const totalAgents =
+    metrics.status === "fulfilled" ? metrics.value.total_agents : 0;
+
+  const discoveredNotManifest =
+    metrics.status === "fulfilled" ? metrics.value.discovered_agents : 0;
+
+  const unattributed =
+    metrics.status === "fulfilled" ? metrics.value.unattributed_agents : 0;
+
+  const now = new Date();
+  const deadlinePassed = now >= DEADLINE;
+  const daysRemaining = deadlinePassed
+    ? 0
+    : Math.ceil((DEADLINE.getTime() - now.getTime()) / (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24));
+
+  // Resolution: target hit (YES) or deadline passed with target not hit (NO)
+  const targetHit = current >= TARGET;
+  const resolved = targetHit || deadlinePassed;
+  const resolution: "YES" | "NO" | null = resolved
+    ? targetHit ? "YES" : "NO"
+    : null;
+
+  // Trend from GDP history snapshots (attributed_agents field)
+  const snapshots =
+    history.status === "fulfilled" ? history.value : [];
+
+  // Snapshots are newest-first; find the one closest to 7 days ago
+  const sevenDaysAgo = Date.now() - 7 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
+  const oldSnapshot = snapshots
+    .filter((s) => new Date(s.snapshotted_at).getTime() <= sevenDaysAgo)
+    .at(0); // newest snapshot that is at least 7 days old
+
+  const delta7d = oldSnapshot != null ? current - oldSnapshot.attributed_agents : null;
+
+  // Rate: change per day over available window
+  let ratePerDay: number | null = null;
+  let projectedByDeadline: number | null = null;
+  let onTrack: boolean | null = null;
+
+  if (oldSnapshot != null && delta7d != null) {
+    const windowDays =
+      (now.getTime() - new Date(oldSnapshot.snapshotted_at).getTime()) /
+      (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24);
+    ratePerDay = windowDays > 0 ? Math.round((delta7d / windowDays) * 100) / 100 : 0;
+    projectedByDeadline =
+      !deadlinePassed && ratePerDay != null
+        ? Math.round(current + ratePerDay * daysRemaining)
+        : null;
+    onTrack = projectedByDeadline != null ? projectedByDeadline >= TARGET : false;
+  }
+
+  const progressPct = Math.min(100, Math.round((current / TARGET) * 100));
+
+  return NextResponse.json(
+    {
+      question: QUESTION,
+      metric: "agents_with_manifest_declared_wallets",
+      current,
+      target: TARGET,
+      deadline: DEADLINE.toISOString(),
+      days_remaining: daysRemaining,
+      progress_pct: progressPct,
+      resolved,
+      resolution,
+      outcome: resolution,
+      trend: {
+        delta_7d: delta7d,
+        rate_per_day: ratePerDay,
+        projected_by_deadline: projectedByDeadline,
+        on_track: onTrack,
+        note:
+          snapshots.length < 2
+            ? "Insufficient snapshot history for trend — check back after daily snapshots accumulate"
+            : null,
+      },
+      context: {
+        total_agents_in_registry: totalAgents,
+        manifest_attributed: current,
+        discovered_not_manifest: discoveredNotManifest,
+        unattributed,
+        definition:
+          "manifest_attributed = agent has ≥1 manifest-declared wallet of type eoa or treasury_contract, verified via .agent/wallets.json",
+        manifest_guide: MANIFEST_GUIDE,
+      },
+      generated_at: now.toISOString(),
+    },
+    {
+      headers: {
+        "Cache-Control": "public, s-maxage=300, stale-while-revalidate=600",
+      },
+    },
+  );
+}