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ChrisRackauckas merged 1 commit into from
Sep 12, 2026
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Parameterize scenario2 intervention times #344

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30 changes: 20 additions & 10 deletions docs/src/scenarios/scenario2.md
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -84,19 +84,25 @@ function f(ts, p = nothing)
tstop - tstart
end

@parameters intervention_start = 0.0 intervention_stop = 90.0
start_intervention = (t == intervention_start) => [β₁ => β₁ / 2, β₂ => β₂ / 2, β₃ => β₃ / 2]
stop_intervention = (t == intervention_stop) => [β₁ => β₁ * 2, β₂ => β₂ * 2, β₃ => β₃ * 2]
@named opttime_sys = ODESystem(
eqs, t, [S, E, I, cumulative_I, R, H, D, T, η],
[p; intervention_start; intervention_stop];
discrete_events = [start_intervention, stop_intervention]
)
opttime_sys = structural_simplify(opttime_sys)
opttime_prob = ODEProblem(opttime_sys, [], [0.0, 90.0])
opttime_prob = remake(opttime_prob; u0 = u60)

function g(res, ts, p = nothing)
tstart = ts[1]
tstop = ts[2]
start_intervention = (t == tstart) => [β₁ => β₁ / 2, β₂ => β₂ / 2, β₃ => β₃ / 2]
stop_intervention = (t == tstop) => [β₁ => β₁ * 2, β₂ => β₂ * 2, β₃ => β₃ * 2]
@named opttime_sys = ODESystem(eqs, t;
discrete_events = [
start_intervention,
stop_intervention
])
opttime_sys = structural_simplify(opttime_sys)
prob = ODEProblem(opttime_sys, [], [0.0, 90.0])
prob = remake(prob; u0 = u60)
prob = remake(
opttime_prob;
p = [intervention_start => tstart, intervention_stop => tstop]
)
sol = solve(prob, saveat = 0.0:1.0:90.0, tstops = [tstart, tstop])
hospitalizations = vec(sol(0.0:1.0:90.0, idxs = H))
if SciMLBase.successful_retcode(sol.retcode)
Expand All @@ -115,12 +121,16 @@ min_intervention_timespan = solve(optprob,
OptimizationMOI.MOI.OptimizerWithAttributes(NLopt.Optimizer,
"algorithm" => :GN_ORIG_DIRECT,
"maxtime" => 60.0))
@assert isfinite(min_intervention_timespan.objective)
min_intervention_timespan.u
```

```@example scenario2
res = zeros(92)
g(res, min_intervention_timespan.u)
@assert all(isfinite, res)
@assert maximum(res[1:91]) <= 0.05
@assert res[92] >= 0.0
maximum(res[1:91])
```

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