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docs(register): reframe C-37/C-38 as near-term preconditions for probabilistic reconciliation - #46

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Jun 24, 2026
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Append-only register notes (counts unchanged, 41/24/17) reflecting this session's cross-repo reframe of the reconciliation effort.

Why

  • FAO (rusty_bucket) needs no reconciliation — pure-grid ensemble aggregated up, sums by construction.
  • The imminent UN-agency deliverable is an FAO-like grid ensemble that does reconcile against a CM model, with ~1024 pooled draws → probabilistic reconciliation, not pgm_cm_point.
  • The views-postprocessing reconciler is already probabilistic-ready (vectorized over samples, bit-exact at S=1000) — so the open work is in the consumer (pipeline-core) plus two preconditions:

Changes

  • C-37 (sample-alignment): reframed from "deferred" to an active design gate — does the deliverable reconcile grid draws to a country point total (no alignment) or to country draws (needs defined alignment; CM models are point-only/independent today)? Gates pipeline-core#200.
  • C-38 (memory residual): the chunk-by-time obligation is now near-term — to be honored and dry-run-measured by pipeline-core#200's PredictionFrameEnsembleManager consumer.

No reconciler code change. Companion to the cross-repo issue updates (vpp #31/#39/#40/#41/#45, pipeline-core #194/#200, views-reporting #72/#149, views-models #143/#77/#144).

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

…abilistic reconciliation

Cross-repo investigation re-aimed the reconciliation effort: FAO (rusty_bucket)
sums by construction and needs no reconciliation, but an imminent UN-agency
deliverable is a frames-based grid ensemble that DOES reconcile against a CM
model with ~1024 pooled draws — i.e. probabilistic, not pgm_cm_point. The
reconciler is already probabilistic-ready, so:

- C-37 (sample-alignment): now an active design gate for that deliverable
  (grid draws -> country point total vs aligned country draws), gating
  pipeline-core#200.
- C-38 (memory residual): the chunk-by-time obligation is now near-term, to be
  honored + dry-run-measured by pipeline-core#200's PFE consumer.

Append-only notes; counts unchanged (41/24/17).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Polichinel merged commit 5165429 into development Jun 24, 2026
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Polichinel deleted the docs/register-reconciliation-reframe branch June 24, 2026 05:45
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