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Reconcile Round 3 pipeline with main and restore reproducible tests - #3
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…m with code Work in progress: README.md and METHOD.md still carry the old numbers and are rewritten in the next commit, once the bake-off is rerun on this build. Data - fourth_down.py fetches every play-by-play season from 2015 instead of reading whatever was cached; a fresh clone used to build 4 of 12 seasons and median-impute the two coach features without a warning. - games.csv comes from nflverse/nfldata over HTTPS. Downloads are atomic with a timeout. Parity and season coverage now fail the build instead of printing. reports/data_manifest.json records the input hashes. Evaluation - backtest.py gets a real offline --self-check (it used to run the full backtest and overwrite the tracked CSV), a per-season feature coverage assert, and new tracked outputs: component skill (FG/PAT R2 and within-week rho), variance decomposition, season-level tests (t, df 7; Wilcoxon; sign; cluster bootstrap) and binned calibration with Brier skill, slope and AUC. - New score_boards.py scores the published 2026 boards against results, with commit and push provenance per game. Weeks 3 and 4 are restored to their first-committed versions. - New experiments: ridge re-test of the three feature families with noise and shuffled controls, and the 50+ willingness analysis, which previously had no code. Weekly board - predict_week.py no longer hard-codes a Windows path (it crashed on import on Linux/macOS); the site file is opt-in via --site-out or KICKER_SITE_JS. Regenerated weeks train only on earlier games, and an existing board is never overwritten without --force. - weekly-board.yml commits each board before Thursday kickoff. Repo - pyproject.toml, requirements matching the real imports, pytest over every module's self-check with network blocked, repo hygiene tests, CI. - scripts/run_pipeline.py runs the current pipeline (it raised ImportError). - Legacy R script, its CSVs, the old config and the v1-harness outputs move to legacy/. Feature-family scripts and logs move to experiments/. - Docstrings: retracted claims, dead CLI flags and process chatter removed; the multiple-testing family split is described as decided after the first run. The orphaned infographic is removed. - docs/ describe the current pipeline. MIT license.
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Merges main into the reproducible pipeline branch, restores full offline test suite passing 22/22, and preserves historical reports and week 8 predictions.