Polymarket Edge Bot

Detects mispriced sports markets on Polymarket using value-bet signals from The Odds API. Buys when a statistically significant edge exists; exits positions when the signal disappears.

Setup

npm install
cp .env.example .env

Update src/config.ts

See .env.example for full list with defaults.

Run

# Development
npm run dev

# Production
npm run build && npm start

How it works

1. Startup: Fetches the funder wallet's USDC balance on-chain, hydrates team knowledge and open positions, fetches active Polymarket sports markets from Gamma API
2. Polling: Every 30s, polls /v3/value-bets?bookmaker=Polymarket for markets with positive expected value. Extracts odds event details and feeds them to the matcher
3. Market matching: Maps Polymarket markets to Odds API events using team knowledge (deterministic); falls back to Claude Haiku for new/unmatched events
4. Sizing: Quarter Kelly by default — bet = bankroll × (edge / (1 − price)) × 0.25, capped at MAX_KELLY_PCT
5. Exits: Every 5 minutes, checks open positions. If the value-bet signal disappears (event no longer in /v3/value-bets), evaluates P&L thresholds: take profit, cut loss, lock gains, or exit after prolonged absence
6. Maintenance: Every 5 minutes, refreshes Gamma markets, re-syncs positions from Data API, refreshes on-chain USDC balance, prunes expired matches

Architecture

poller.ts          — Polls /v3/value-bets, sizes signals, feeds odds events to matcher
market-matcher.ts  — Deterministic + LLM fallback matching (Polymarket ↔ Odds API)
team-knowledge.ts  — Team abbreviation resolution, h2h outcomeMap cache
exits.ts           — Exit logic: value-bet presence check + P&L thresholds
executor.ts        — GTD/FAK order placement via Polymarket CLOB
user-stream.ts     — Authenticated WS for fill confirmations
position-tracker.ts — Open position tracking (Data API + WS updates)
order-tracker.ts   — Resting orders + signal metadata

Storage

No database. All state is in-memory with JSON file persistence in ./data/:

• match-table.json — Polymarket ↔ Odds API event mappings
• team-knowledge.json — Team abbreviations + h2h outcomeMap cache
• trades.jsonl — Append-only signal/trade log
• errors.jsonl — Error log

Deploy

Long-running process on Railway. Use a Railway volume mounted at /data/ so match-table.json and trades.jsonl survive deploys. Positions are hydrated live from the Data API on startup.