Hormuz Gambit — Geopolitical & Geoeconomics Analyst Platform

Game-theoretic analysis of the 2026 Iran War and Iran's de-dollarisation strategy.

Introdction to use analyst platform for strategic briefing and event classification

Workstreams.1.mov

🚀 Deploy to GitHub Pages

1. Push this entire folder to a GitHub repository
2. Go to Settings → Pages → Source: Deploy from branch → main → / (root)
3. Live at https://yourusername.github.io/hormuz/index.html

---

📁 File Structure

github_site/
├── index.html             ← Public portal with breaking news banner
├── admin.html            ← Admin control panel (parameter calibration)
├── params.json           ← Shared parameters file (AI analysis + Brent)
├── README.md
│
├── eq4/                  ← Equation 4: U.S. accommodation vs escalation
│   ├── index.html
│   ├── css/style.css
│   └── js/main.js
│
├── eq5/                  ← Equation 5: Iran closure decision
│   ├── index.html
│   ├── css/style.css
│   └── js/main.js
│
├── eq7/                  ← Equation 7: Swing producer cascade
│   ├── index.html
│   ├── css/style.css
│   └── js/main.js
│
├── eq8/                  ← Equation 8: Dollar hegemony decay
│   ├── index.html
│   ├── css/style.css
│   └── js/main.js
│
└── eq12/                 ← Equation 12: Sanctions relief threshold
    ├── index.html
    ├── css/style.css
    └── js/main.js

---

⚙️ Admin Panel Workflow

The admin.html panel manages model parameters via AI calibration:

1. Setup (One-Time)

Get free API keys:

• Guardian API: https://open-platform.theguardian.com/access/ (12,000 req/day)
• Anthropic API: https://console.anthropic.com/ (Claude calibration)

Enter keys in admin panel → Click "Save keys" (stored in browser localStorage only)

2. Calibration Workflow

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  1. Fetch Brent Oil Price                        │
│     • Auto-scrapes oilprice.com (every 5 min)    │
│     • Fallback: Yahoo Finance                    │
│     • Manual override available                  │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
           ↓
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  2. Fetch Headlines                              │
│     • Guardian API (customizable keywords)       │
│     • Auto-labeled by equation (Eq.4-12)        │
│     • 24h lookback (configurable)               │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
           ↓
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  3. Run Claude Calibration                       │
│     • AI analyzes headlines + Brent price        │
│     • Updates 12 model parameters               │
│     • Provides justifications + confidence       │
│     • Stores changelog (learning tool)           │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
           ↓
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  4. Review & Publish                            │
│     • View changelog history (insights)         │
│     • Add analyst notes                         │
│     • Download params.json                       │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
           ↓
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  5. Deploy to GitHub                            │
│     • git add github_site/params.json           │
│     • git commit -m "Update params"             │
│     • git push                                  │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
           ↓
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  6. Portal Auto-Updates                         │
│     • index.html fetches params.json (10 min)   │
│     • All equation pages update                 │
│     • Banner shows dynamic AI analysis          │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

📊 Model Parameters (12 total)

Symbol	Name	Range	Description
c	Credibility	0.0-1.0	Iran closure threat credibility (0=bluff, 1=certain)
E	Base escalation cost	1-15	U.S. military intervention base cost
m	Geographic multiplier	1.0-5.0	Hormuz chokepoint impact (~3.0 = 20% global oil)
H	Hegemony loss	1-12	U.S. dollar dominance erosion
G	Iran yuan gain	1-15	Iran benefit from yuan adoption
S	Sanctions cost	1-15	Iran economic damage from sanctions
Sr	Sanctions relief	0-25	Sanctions relief amount (OFAC/SWIFT)
k	Cascade switchers	0-10	Swing producers switching to yuan
nu	Network gain	1-8	Utility gain per yuan switcher
Ps	U.S. guarantee value	5-20	U.S. security guarantee value to allies
rhoI	Iran decay rate	0.005-0.15	Iran's erosion rate from yuan settlements
n	Swing states	0-5	Number of swing producer states

Derived Metrics:

• E* (Effective escalation cost): E × [1 + c(m−1)]
• Dominance margin: G + S - Sr (positive = trap active)
• Sr coverage: Sr/(G+S) × 100%

Learning Workflow:

After 10 calibrations, you notice:
• Eq.5 headlines (attacks) → Always boost 'c' (HIGH confidence)
• Eq.12 headlines → Only move 'Sr' when containing "OFAC/SWIFT"
• Eq.7 headlines (yuan switching) → Gradual 'H'/'G' increases
• Brent >$90 → c parameter jumps significantly

Use these insights to:
✓ Refine search keywords
✓ Write better analyst notes
✓ Understand model sensitivity
✓ Predict parameter moves

---

🔒 Data Privacy

Data Type	Storage	Shared?
API Keys	Browser localStorage	❌ Never (private)
Changelog	Browser localStorage	❌ Never (learning tool)
Parameters	GitHub (params.json)	✅ Yes (public)
Headlines	Session memory	❌ No (cleared on refresh)

Zero server costs - everything runs in browser or GitHub Pages.

---

🆕 Adding a New Analysis

1. Create folder: /eqXX/
2. Add files:
   • index.html (copy from existing eq folder)
   • css/style.css (shared stylesheet)
   • js/main.js (equation-specific logic)
3. Update index.html in root:
   • Change .card.coming to .card.live
   • Add correct href to /eqXX/
4. Ensure equation page fetches params.json:

   fetch('../params.json')
     .then(r => r.json())
     .then(p => {
       // Use parameters in visualization
     });

---

📑 Analyses

see Article https://persian-gulf.medium.com/the-hormuz-strait-coalition-why-a-naval-coalition-cannot-break-irans-trap-f05cd274bf95

ID	Equation	Status	Path	Description
001	E* = E×[1 + c(m−1)]	✅ Live	/eq5/	Hormuz Commitment Device
002	a* = argmax min U_A	✅ Live	/eq4/	U.S. Dominant Strategy
003	Gs + kν > Ps(1−δ)^k	✅ Live	/eq7/	Swing Producer Cascade
004	Sr ≥ G+S	✅ Live	/eq12/	Sanctions Relief Threshold
005	H_{t+1} = H_t(1−ρI−nt·ρS)	✅ Live	/eq8/	Hegemony Decay

---

🛠️ Tech Stack

• Frontend: Pure HTML/CSS/JavaScript (no frameworks)
• APIs:
  • Guardian API (news headlines)
  • Anthropic Claude API (AI calibration)
  • oilprice.com scraper (Brent crude)
  • Yahoo Finance fallback (Brent crude backup)
• Storage:
  • localStorage (API keys, changelog)
  • GitHub Pages (params.json, static site)
• Deployment: GitHub Pages (zero cost, auto-updates)

---

🎯 Key Features

✅ Auto-scraping Brent price (every 5 minutes)
✅ Guardian API integration (headline fetching)
✅ Claude AI calibration (parameter updates)
✅ Changelog tracking (learn from past calibrations)
✅ Manual overrides (full control)
✅ Dynamic banner (shows AI analysis from params.json)
✅ Slower scrolling (60s cycle for readability)
✅ Bigger fonts (15px for visibility)
✅ Zero server costs (browser + GitHub Pages)
✅ Privacy-first (API keys never leave browser)
✅ Real-time portal updates (params.json auto-fetch)

---

📄 License

MIT License - Free to use and modify for research purposes.

---

🔗 Links

• Admin Panel: /admin.html
• Public Portal: /index.html
• Guardian API: https://open-platform.theguardian.com/
• Anthropic Claude: https://console.anthropic.com/
• GitHub Pages Docs: https://docs.github.com/en/pages

---

📅 Scenario Timeline

Date	Event
28 FEB 2026	Crisis begins - Hormuz closure
23 MAR 2026	Trump-Iran talks signal, Brent volatile

Current Crisis Metrics:

• Brent $105+ (up 18% on invasion)
• Trap Status Active (dominance margin > 0)
• Primary Threat Military escalation + Bab al-Mandan leverage