Skip to content

Internals: follow agi's design for the Caruso reads - #135

Merged
mspinola merged 2 commits into
mainfrom
claude/internals-credit-dividend-adjusted
Sep 24, 2026
Merged

mspinola merged 2 commits into
mainfrom
claude/internals-credit-dividend-adjusted

Conversation

@mspinola

@mspinola mspinola commented Sep 24, 2026 •

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Owner

Summary

Two changes, both the same decision: agi's /market is the authority on what the four M-106 exposure reads are; this page decides how they are drawn. Recorded at the top of market_internals, because cot-analyzer cannot import agi (private repo, public consumer) and so a restatement that drifts is a defect here rather than a difference of opinion.

1. The credit leg reads the dividend-adjusted series

JNK distributes about 6.7% a year in monthly instalments of roughly 0.56% of its price, so every ex-dividend date puts a notch in the raw price that has nothing to do with credit, and the 20-day average test reads it as a breakdown. The comment justifying the split tier had the mechanism backwards: the notch is a discontinuity the trailing average smooths over 20 sessions, so it opens a gap rather than cancelling.

raw vs adjusted verdict disagrees, last year 24.6% of sessions
disagreements over two years 98
of those, raw says risk off and adjusted says risk on 98
the opposite direction 0

One-directional because a recurring downward notch can only push a price under its average. JNK has never made a capital-gains distribution, so the total tier is exactly the dividend-adjusted series. Caruso states the adjustment as a condition of the read (M-10a); agi's jnk_leg preserves the worked example where the raw series inverted the July 2026 conclusion.

Up/down volume and the asset table stay on prices as traded, checked rather than assumed: the notch flips the up/down classification on 0 of QQQ's sessions and 1 of SPY's over two years.

2. Two definitions follow agi

  • Up/down volume turns at one, not at an invented 0.95–1.05 dead zone. agi's updown_volume calls one "the ratio's own definition" rather than a threshold, since the ratio is up volume over down volume. A session at 1.02 read "Balanced" here and "net buying" there. The heavy tiers stay as this page's own emphasis and move no verdict.
  • The FOMO chart is a year, agi's zoom, not a month. A month shows the last wiggle; the zone visits the read exists to locate are only legible against a year of them. Month ticks, a thinner line for the density, caption says "Past year".

Rendering stays ours, per the page's own style: the credit card draws a price and its average where agi draws the gap, and the reads sit in cards rather than a gauge row.

Test plan

  • Full suite 880 passed, ruff clean.
  • New tests: the tier per read with the reasoning; the single-session regression (a gently rising price plus one distribution-sized drop flips the raw verdict and not the adjusted one); the centre line at one with no neutral band.
  • Rendered against the live store and checked at card width.

The TradingView twin gets the credit fix in mspinola/npf#472.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

mspinola and others added 2 commits September 23, 2026 22:04
JNK distributes about 6.7% a year in monthly instalments of roughly 0.56% of
its price, so every ex-dividend date puts a notch in the raw price that has
nothing to do with credit conditions, and the 20-day average test reads that
notch as a breakdown. The comment justifying the split tier had it backwards:
the notch is a discontinuity the trailing average smooths over 20 sessions, so
it opens a gap rather than cancelling.

Measured on the live store: over the last year the raw and adjusted verdicts
disagree on 24.6% of sessions, and over two years the disagreement is 98
sessions of raw-says-risk-off against 0 the other way, since a recurring
downward notch can only push a price under its average. JNK has never made a
capital-gains distribution, so the total tier is exactly the dividend-adjusted
series. Today both tiers say risk off, so nothing on screen moves.

Caruso states the adjustment as a condition of the read (M-10a); agi's jnk_leg
preserves the worked example where the raw series inverted the July 2026
conclusion.

Up/down volume and the asset table stay on prices as traded, checked rather
than assumed: the notch flips the up/down classification on 0 of QQQ's
sessions and 1 of SPY's over two years, against 98 for JNK.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
agi's /market screen is the authority on what each of the four M-106 exposure
reads IS; this page decides how they are drawn. Recorded at the top of the
module, because cot-analyzer cannot import agi (private repo, public consumer)
and a restatement that drifts is a defect here rather than a difference of
opinion.

Two definitions change to match:

* up/down volume turns at one, not at an invented 0.95-1.05 dead zone. agi's
  updown_volume calls one "the ratio's own definition" rather than a threshold,
  since the ratio is up volume over down volume. A session at 1.02 read
  "Balanced" here and "net buying" there. The heavy tiers stay as this page's
  own emphasis and move no verdict.
* the FOMO chart is a year, agi's zoom, not a month. A month shows the last
  wiggle; the zone visits the read exists to locate are only legible against a
  year of them. Month ticks, a thinner line for the density, and the caption
  says "Past year".

Rendering stays ours: the credit card draws a price and its average where agi
draws the gap, and the reads sit in cards rather than a gauge row.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@mspinola mspinola changed the title Internals: the credit leg reads the dividend-adjusted series Internals: follow agi's design for the Caruso reads Sep 24, 2026
@mspinola
mspinola merged commit 39446f9 into main Sep 24, 2026
3 checks passed
@mspinola
mspinola deleted the claude/internals-credit-dividend-adjusted branch September 24, 2026 04:24
Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment

Labels

None yet

Projects

None yet

Development

Successfully merging this pull request may close these issues.

1 participant