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Internals: follow agi's design for the Caruso reads - #135
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JNK distributes about 6.7% a year in monthly instalments of roughly 0.56% of its price, so every ex-dividend date puts a notch in the raw price that has nothing to do with credit conditions, and the 20-day average test reads that notch as a breakdown. The comment justifying the split tier had it backwards: the notch is a discontinuity the trailing average smooths over 20 sessions, so it opens a gap rather than cancelling. Measured on the live store: over the last year the raw and adjusted verdicts disagree on 24.6% of sessions, and over two years the disagreement is 98 sessions of raw-says-risk-off against 0 the other way, since a recurring downward notch can only push a price under its average. JNK has never made a capital-gains distribution, so the total tier is exactly the dividend-adjusted series. Today both tiers say risk off, so nothing on screen moves. Caruso states the adjustment as a condition of the read (M-10a); agi's jnk_leg preserves the worked example where the raw series inverted the July 2026 conclusion. Up/down volume and the asset table stay on prices as traded, checked rather than assumed: the notch flips the up/down classification on 0 of QQQ's sessions and 1 of SPY's over two years, against 98 for JNK. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
agi's /market screen is the authority on what each of the four M-106 exposure reads IS; this page decides how they are drawn. Recorded at the top of the module, because cot-analyzer cannot import agi (private repo, public consumer) and a restatement that drifts is a defect here rather than a difference of opinion. Two definitions change to match: * up/down volume turns at one, not at an invented 0.95-1.05 dead zone. agi's updown_volume calls one "the ratio's own definition" rather than a threshold, since the ratio is up volume over down volume. A session at 1.02 read "Balanced" here and "net buying" there. The heavy tiers stay as this page's own emphasis and move no verdict. * the FOMO chart is a year, agi's zoom, not a month. A month shows the last wiggle; the zone visits the read exists to locate are only legible against a year of them. Month ticks, a thinner line for the density, and the caption says "Past year". Rendering stays ours: the credit card draws a price and its average where agi draws the gap, and the reads sit in cards rather than a gauge row. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Summary
Two changes, both the same decision: agi's
/marketis the authority on what the four M-106 exposure reads are; this page decides how they are drawn. Recorded at the top ofmarket_internals, because cot-analyzer cannot import agi (private repo, public consumer) and so a restatement that drifts is a defect here rather than a difference of opinion.1. The credit leg reads the dividend-adjusted series
JNK distributes about 6.7% a year in monthly instalments of roughly 0.56% of its price, so every ex-dividend date puts a notch in the raw price that has nothing to do with credit, and the 20-day average test reads it as a breakdown. The comment justifying the split tier had the mechanism backwards: the notch is a discontinuity the trailing average smooths over 20 sessions, so it opens a gap rather than cancelling.
One-directional because a recurring downward notch can only push a price under its average. JNK has never made a capital-gains distribution, so the total tier is exactly the dividend-adjusted series. Caruso states the adjustment as a condition of the read (M-10a); agi's
jnk_legpreserves the worked example where the raw series inverted the July 2026 conclusion.Up/down volume and the asset table stay on prices as traded, checked rather than assumed: the notch flips the up/down classification on 0 of QQQ's sessions and 1 of SPY's over two years.
2. Two definitions follow agi
updown_volumecalls one "the ratio's own definition" rather than a threshold, since the ratio is up volume over down volume. A session at 1.02 read "Balanced" here and "net buying" there. The heavy tiers stay as this page's own emphasis and move no verdict.Rendering stays ours, per the page's own style: the credit card draws a price and its average where agi draws the gap, and the reads sit in cards rather than a gauge row.
Test plan
The TradingView twin gets the credit fix in mspinola/npf#472.
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