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Correct forecast demand inflation and explain shortage dates - #11
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mindtheflo
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October 19, 2026 15:07
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A regular workday could be forecast as a quota shortage because the recency-weighted daytime baseline was multiplied by the daily profile again, normal activity was treated as an additional burst, and clipping the uncertainty band moved its midpoint above expected demand.
Normalize the amplitude against the same observed hourly profile, measure bursts against expected recent activity, and keep central demand fixed when sensitivity bounds are clipped. Provider headings now explain the limiting allowance, central shortage date and projected weekly-plan usage; the diagnostic CLI exposes the same evidence separately from conservative whole-band shortages.
Validation: 72 Swift tests pass, including a 20-point daily schedule forecast consistently from morning, noon and evening; existing acceleration, renewals, provider isolation and abstention checks pass. Release build, strict code-signature validation and Gatekeeper assessment pass. The signed build is installed locally and its forecast help was verified through native accessibility readback.
Test: Native macOS app; no HTTP preview. Run
swift testandswift run cpamc-quota-check. In Juice Bar, hover a provider heading for forecast details. No merge or platform release performed.