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Generalize paired-seed confirmation and close Conv1D profile experiments - #124
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janhelcl merged 13 commits intoSep 9, 2026
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janhelcl
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feature/xc-weather-profile-agl-mask
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feature/ml-experiment-platform
September 9, 2026 06:09
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Summary
glideator-ml confirm-seeds xcto accept multiple controls while training the candidate only once per seedConfirmation result
The AGL/mask candidate does not clear the frozen conventional MLP promotion bar:
Against the plain CNN, AGL/mask is also slightly worse on BCE/Brier; only ROC-AUC shows a small signal (
+0.000191, 4/5 wins).Decision
Reject AGL/mask as a promotion candidate and stop the current Conv1D family. Do not tune convolution width/depth/kernel size or add another coordinate channel to this architecture. The frozen conventional MLP remains the promotion reference.
Keep both CNN configs as reproducible negative experiments. Preserve AGL/masking as possible inputs for a different encoder family.
The next vertical-profile hypothesis should use a shared per-pressure-level encoder with simple ordered aggregation; level attention comes later as a separate experiment.
Harness improvement
A two-control five-seed confirmation now takes 15 trainings rather than 20: 5 candidate + 5 per control. The same candidate run for each seed is paired with both controls, preserving the statistical comparison while avoiding duplicate training.