Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the daily rainfall in six districts of West Bengal to study if there is any change in consistency of Monsoon rainfall over time. This will help to find any change in distribution of rainfall over years. Another purpose of this study is to forecast Monsoon rainfall of upcoming years based on past rainfall data. We employ Regression analysis technique to detect trend in the Monsoon variance. Apart from Regression analysis, we also consider a non-parametric approach by performing Mann-Kendall Test to detect trend in Monsoon variance. Then we fit ARIMA model to forecast rainfall in Monsoon for next 10 years. The variance of Monsoon rainfall shows a significantly increasing trend for the districts Manbhum Purulia and South 24 Parganas. It shows a significantly decreasing trend for Darjeeling. For Nadia, Monsoon variance is stable over 120 years and no proper conclusion can be made for Coochbehar and Malda. There is an indication that distribution of Monsoon rainfall has been changed in some certain regions of West Bengal. More detailed study can reveal more aspects of change in distribution of Monsoon rainfall in West Bengal.