Seventh paper in the complexity-econ series. Introduces input-output sectoral coupling into the SFC-ABM engine via a 6×6 technical coefficients matrix calibrated from GUS symmetric I-O tables (2015/2019). Discovers a sharp first-order phase transition at critical coupling strength κ_c ≈ 0.93, universal across BDP levels.
- Critical coupling strength κ_c ≈ 0.93: sharp 1st-order phase transition in I-O pass-through, universal across BDP levels. Below κ_c, I-O is a mild perturbation of baseline (±3 pp adoption). Above κ_c, Leontief cascade dominates---deflation spiral, mass unemployment (87%), NPL explosion.
- Transition is BDP-independent: same κ_c at BDP=500 and BDP=2000. At κ=1.0, cascade triggers even at BDP=0 (natural AI adoption seeds the supply chain feedback loop).
- Reentrant inverted-U survives: the adoption peak at BDP≈500 from Paper-04 is preserved for all I-O variants below κ_c. At κ=1.0, the reentrant peak shifts to BDP≈2250.
- Manufacturing is the hub sector: backward linkage BL=2.04, forward linkage FL=2.69---highest in both directions, consistent with Acemoglu et al. (2012) cascade theory.
- Empirically grounded range κ ∈ [0.75, 0.90]: produces +10% unemployment amplification, consistent with Baqaee & Farhi (2020) estimates. The cascade at κ ≥ 0.95 is an artifact of fixed A, instantaneous pass-through, and capacity-proportional revenue.
- Three propagation channels: demand (Keynesian), supply chain (Leontief), and credit (SFC/Minsky) interact nonlinearly through the intermediate market.
| Campaign | Simulations | Description |
|---|---|---|
| C1 Validation | 300 | No-IO vs IO baseline, 5 BDP levels × 2 modes × 30 seeds |
| C2 Scale Sweep | 660 | 11 κ levels (0.0--1.0) × 2 BDP (500, 2000) × 30 seeds |
| C3 BDP Phase | 2,520 | 21 BDP levels (0--5,000) × 4 I-O variants × 30 seeds |
| C4 Sectoral | 150 | 5 BDP levels × κ=0.85 × 30 seeds |
| Total | 3,630 |
Fig 1. Adoption and unemployment vs κ at BDP=500 and BDP=2000 (left: terminal, right: time evolution). Green band marks empirical range κ ∈ [0.75, 0.90]. The κ=1.00 trajectory diverges catastrophically after M30.
Fig 2. I-O flows vs coupling strength (left: terminal, right: timeseries at BDP=2000). Flows peak at κ≈0.85 then collapse---at κ=1.00, firms bankrupt cascadingly through the supply chain and flows drop to zero.
Fig 3. Adoption vs BDP for four I-O variants (left: terminal, right: timeseries for no-IO baseline). The reentrant inverted-U is preserved across all sub-critical I-O strengths.
Fig 4. Unemployment vs BDP (left: terminal, right: timeseries). Clear post-shock bifurcation: BDP=0 rises fastest (no compensation), BDP=5000 also high (inflation-induced tightening).
Fig 5. Inflation vs BDP (left: terminal, right: timeseries). All BDP paths converge to deflation post-shock. BDP=5000 delays onset by ~20 months but ends at -20%.
Fig 6. I-O flows at κ=0.85 (left: terminal bar chart, right: timeseries). Higher BDP reduces I-O volume---UBI-sustained demand dampens adoption, hence fewer automated firms purchasing intermediate inputs.
analysis/ — 6 Python scripts generating figures
figures/ — Generated PNG figures (200 DPI)
latex/ — Paper source (XeLaTeX + biblatex)
simulations/
scripts/ — 4 campaign runner scripts + run_all.sh
results/ — Terminal + timeseries CSV files (European format: ; separator, , decimal)
- Engine: complexity-econ/core (Scala 3.5.2, sbt)
- Analysis: Python 3 (matplotlib, numpy, pandas)
- Paper: XeLaTeX + biblatex
# Build the engine JAR first
cd ../core && sbt assembly
# Run all simulation campaigns
cd simulations/scripts && bash run_all.sh
# Generate all figures
for f in analysis/python/fig*.py; do python3 "$f"; done
# Compile paper
cd latex && xelatex paper_en.tex && biber paper_en && xelatex paper_en.tex && xelatex paper_en.tex| # | Paper | DOI |
|---|---|---|
| 01 | The Acceleration Paradox | 10.5281/zenodo.18727928 |
| 02 | Monetary Regime & Automation | 10.5281/zenodo.18740933 |
| 03 | Empirical σ Estimation | 10.5281/zenodo.18743780 |
| 04 | Phase Diagram & Universality | 10.5281/zenodo.18751083 |
| 05 | Endogenous Technology & Networks | 10.5281/zenodo.18758365 |
| 06 | Heterogeneous Households | pending |
| 07 | I-O Sectoral Coupling | pending |
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