Ship review quorum reliability: hatch approval burned by magic-close false positive; opus seats unusable (exclude/hold/expired) #243

What

During PR #242 ship (2026-11-06) the review-quorum Guard-B (agent-tools ci/ship/shiplib/quorum_skipci.py:341, hatch check :361) had zero usable seats and its hatch escape burned an owner approval: (1) the owner's Telegram hatch approval was consumed by a magic-close refusal triggered by the phrase 'do not close' inside the PR body — the approval should only be consumed when the ship actually proceeds, and the magic-close check should run before the approval is requested; (2) claude:claude-opus-5-5 CLI seat's only account (invntrm@gmail.com) is excluded by omp_accounts.exclude; (3) omp:anthropic/claude-opus-5-5 seat is held at 'USAGE UNKNOWN' because the alex.mex.ux account has no 5-hour window and the completion-probe path does not clear the hold (7-day usage 76% is under the 80% cap); (4) the third omp account (mextner@gmail.com) is disabled with an expired refresh token.

Why (motivation)

The quorum gate is the only remaining merge blocker for ready PRs (PR #242 was fully green 2026-11-06 and could not ship for these reasons); a one-owner approval flow that silently burns approvals erodes trust in the gate.

User impact

Ready, fully verified PRs can be blocked for days (codex quota until 2026-11-09) with no honest machine-review path and no working hatch.

Cost of inaction

Every future ship that lacks a codex/claude seat will hit the same wall and need ad-hoc human intervention.

Acceptance criteria

• A granted Telegram hatch approval is never consumed by a refusal that happens after the approval (magic-close and all other refusal checks run before the approval request, or the approval is re-usable until a ship succeeds)
• An omp Anthropic account under the 7-day cap becomes usable when its 5-hour window is unobservable: the probe path clears the USAGE UNKNOWN hold, or the hold has a documented manual clear
• At least two live review seats exist at all times (documented rotation: exclude list, hold handling, refresh-token re-login for mextner@gmail.com)

Screenshots

(none)

Deploy

Deployed: no

Links

• (none)

Skipped gates

• links: Cross-repo findings for agent-tools tracked here per repo convention for ops tickets
• msgref-quote: Observed directly in session logs and review seats/health output on 2026-11-06
• screenshots: CLI/tooling behavior evidenced by command output, not UI