Emergent chat_message volume — 11 in 24h

Problem

chat_message series emerged from zero: 11 chat_message events observed in the trailing-24h window.

Evidence

chat_message_24h: {
"current": 11,
"median_7d": 0,
"median_28d": 0,
"ratio_vs_28d": null,
"z_score_28d": 2.457536881921515,
"history_days_28d": 29,
"low_confidence": false,
"max_28d": 19,
"emerged_from_zero": true,
"emerged_from_zero_magnitude_floor": 9.5,
"emerged_from_zero_significant": true,
"informational_only": false,
"dormant_exempt": true
}

Baseline comparison

current=11 median_7d=0 median_28d=0 ratio_vs_28d=null z_score_28d=2.457536881921515 history_days_28d=29

Change correlation

unexplained: I checked change_context — there is a merge touching src/CouponHubBot/ (dd977b8: "FEEDBACK_GITHUB_ISSUES flag gates /feedback GitHub issues (default off)") and ArgoCD shows recent deploys, but those changes do not plausibly explain a new burst of chat messages. Classified as unexplained and filing for investigation.

Evidence

{
  "current": 14,
  "median_7d": 0,
  "median_28d": 0,
  "ratio_vs_28d": null,
  "z_score_28d": 3.256986752703803,
  "history_days_28d": 29,
  "low_confidence": false,
  "max_28d": 19,
  "emerged_from_zero": true,
  "emerged_from_zero_magnitude_floor": 9.5,
  "emerged_from_zero_significant": true,
  "informational_only": false,
  "dormant_exempt": true
}

Baseline comparison

chat_message_24h: current=14 median_7d=0 median_28d=0 ratio_vs_28d=null z_score_28d=3.256986752703803 history_days_28d=29 low_confidence=false

Change correlation

Attributed — the merge 2da6f0f ("CouponHubBot: repeat the "add coupons" nag, window tunable via bot_setting"; #467) plausibly explains increased chat activity. Recent ArgoCD deploy id=217 (deployedAt=2026-09-07T09:52:34Z) is within the 72h window.

Result: attributed to recent change; not filing a new issue for this traffic/volume series.

Monitor update — coupon — chat_message emerged from zero

Evidence (verbatim series entry):
current=45, median_7d=0, median_28d=0, ratio_vs_28d=null, z_score_28d=11.673451794474904, history_days_28d=29, low_confidence=false, max_28d=19, emerged_from_zero=true, emerged_from_zero_magnitude_floor=9.5, emerged_from_zero_significant=true, informational_only=false, dormant_exempt=true

Change correlation: attributed — merges to main touching src/CouponHubBot/ in the preceding 72h plausibly explain this. Closest candidate: commit 2da6f0f — "CouponHubBot: repeat the "add coupons" nag, window tunable via bot_setting (#467)".

Action: attributed to the change above; no new issue filed.

Problem
Emergent chat message volume still active (traffic spike).

Evidence

chat_message_24h: current=47 median_7d=0 median_28d=0 ratio=null z_score_28d=8.978627093337538 history_days_28d=28 emerged_from_zero=true emerged_from_zero_significant=true dormant_exempt=true

Change correlation
At least one merge touched src/CouponHubBot/ in the preceding 72h (2da6f0f: repeat the "add coupons" nag; dd977b8: FEEDBACK_GITHUB_ISSUES flag). ArgoCD deploys at 2026-09-07T09:52:34Z and 2026-09-07T13:22:58Z. The most-recent PR 2da6f0f ("add coupons" nag) plausibly increases user interactions; classification: attributed — not filing a new issue.

Problem

chat_message_24h emerged from zero: inbound chat messages to the bot in the trailing-24h window increased from zero to a non-trivial value.

Evidence (series: `chat_message_24h`)

current=45 median_7d=0 median_28d=0 ratio_vs_28d=null z_score_28d=6.99515429516715 history_days_28d=29 low_confidence=false max_28d=47 emerged_from_zero=true emerged_from_zero_magnitude_floor=23.5 emerged_from_zero_significant=true informational_only=false dormant_exempt=true

Change correlation

Checked change_context: merges to main touching src/CouponHubBot/ in preceding 72h:

2da6f0f CouponHubBot: repeat the "add coupons" nag, window tunable via bot_setting (CouponHubBot: repeat the "add coupons" nag, window tunable via bot_setting #467)
dd977b8 CouponHubBot: FEEDBACK_GITHUB_ISSUES flag gates /feedback GitHub issues (default off) (CouponHubBot: FEEDBACK_GITHUB_ISSUES flag gates /feedback GitHub issues (default off) #465)

ArgoCD deploy history (preceding 72h):

id=217 revision=55570eb6... deployedAt=2026-09-07T09:52:34Z
id=218 revision=10443315... deployedAt=2026-09-07T13:22:58Z
id=216 revision=642f77f7... deployedAt=2026-09-05T15:11:23Z

Classification: attributed (traffic/volume series). A user-facing change landed in the preceding 72h (2da6f0f / PR #467) that plausibly increases bot-visible messaging; per monitor rules a traffic/volume finding that is attributed to a recent deploy is not filed as a new issue. This comment records the active observation and attribution.

Problem

Traffic/volume series chat_message_24h emerged from zero (non-dormant traffic spike observed).

Evidence (series, verbatim)

"chat_message_24h": { "current": 44, "median_7d": 0, "median_28d": 0, "ratio_vs_28d": null, "z_score_28d": 5.9609899457734175, "history_days_28d": 29, "low_confidence": false, "max_28d": 47, "emerged_from_zero": true, "emerged_from_zero_magnitude_floor": 23.5, "emerged_from_zero_significant": true, "informational_only": false, "dormant_exempt": true }

Change correlation

attributed (not filed): merges to main touching src/CouponHubBot/ in the preceding 72h include 2da6f0f — "repeat the "add coupons" nag" (PR #467), which plausibly increases user-facing bot messages/nags. This is a traffic/volume series and the change explains the rise, so the correct action is attributed (do not open a new finding for an explained volume increase).

Monitor run comment — chat_message emerged-from-zero (attributed)

Evidence (verbatim)

chat_message_24h: current=36 median_7d=0 median_28d=0 ratio=null z_score_28d=4.295559046855243 history_days_28d=29 emerged_from_zero=true emerged_from_zero_significant=true

Change correlation

attributed — recent merges touching src/CouponHubBot/ in the preceding 72h: 3e22545 (#472), 2da6f0f (#467), dd977b8 (#465); recent ArgoCD deploys id=219 and id=220. No issue will be filed for this traffic/volume shift.

Problem

chat_message_24h emerged from zero (unexpected increase in chat-event count).

Evidence (verbatim)

"chat_message_24h": {
  "current": 33,
  "median_7d": 0,
  "median_28d": 0,
  "ratio_vs_28d": null,
  "z_score_28d": 3.6806246506080056,
  "history_days_28d": 29,
  "low_confidence": false,
  "max_28d": 47,
  "emerged_from_zero": true,
  "emerged_from_zero_magnitude_floor": 23.5,
  "emerged_from_zero_significant": true,
  "informational_only": false,
  "dormant_exempt": true
}

Baseline comparison

current=33 median_7d=0 median_28d=0 ratio_vs_28d=null z_score_28d=3.6806246506080056 history_days_28d=29 emerged_from_zero_significant=true emerged_from_zero_magnitude_floor=23.5

Change correlation

attributed (not filed): merge 2da6f0f — "repeat the "add coupons" nag, window tunable via bot_setting" (PR #467) touches src/CouponHubBot/ in the preceding 72h and plausibly explains increased chat messages (the bot intentionally emits repeat nags). This is expected behavior after that change; do not file a new issue.

Transition to clean — chat_message (emerged-from-zero)

This run's evidence shows chat_message_24h has returned to baseline.

Evidence (verbatim)

chat_message_24h: current=0, median_7d=0, median_28d=1, ratio_vs_28d=0, z_score_28d=-0.5027571127798952, history_days_28d=29, low_confidence=false

Notes

Previously active at known.open.last_active_at=2026-09-08T16:36:11Z and earlier attributed to merge 2da6f0f (#467). This run is the first clean run after that activity.

Status update — emerged chat_message fingerprint

Evidence (verbatim from run bundle)

"chat_message_24h": {
"current": 0,
"median_7d": 0,
"median_28d": 1,
"ratio_vs_28d": 0,
"z_score_28d": -0.5027571127798952,
"history_days_28d": 29,
"low_confidence": false,
"max_28d": 47,
"emerged_from_zero": false,
"emerged_from_zero_magnitude_floor": 23.5,
"emerged_from_zero_significant": false,
"informational_only": false,
"dormant_exempt": true
}

Run timestamp

2026-09-09T08:36:16Z

First clean run observed in this bundle.

Evidence (verbatim from bundle):

chat_message_24h: current=0, median_7d=0, median_28d=0, ratio_vs_28d=null, z_score_28d=-0.4886494681000086, history_days_28d=29

Per known fingerprint metadata: last_active_at=2026-09-08T16:36:11Z, days_since_last_active=1, consecutive_clean_days=1

Daily heartbeat: chat_message emergence fingerprint shows sub-threshold activity.

Evidence (verbatim):
series.chat_message_24h:
current=3, median_7d=0, median_28d=0, emerged_from_zero=true, emerged_from_zero_magnitude_floor=23.5, emerged_from_zero_significant=false

Mechanical:
days_since_last_active=2, consecutive_clean_days=2, last_active_at=2026-09-08T16:36:11Z

Conclusion: Emerged-from-zero present but below magnitude floor — not filed. No action taken.

Monitor heartbeat — CouponHubBot

Run timestamp: 2026-09-12T01:00:48Z

Evidence

Series chat_message_24h from evidence:
current=3, median_7d=0, median_28d=0, ratio_vs_28d=null, z_score_28d=-0.0586191938826326, history_days_28d=28, low_confidence=false, emerged_from_zero=true, emerged_from_zero_significant=false, emerged_from_zero_magnitude_floor=23.5

Assessment

The chat_message series remains below the magnitude floor (emerged_from_zero_significant=false); not filed.

Monitor heartbeat — the chat_message_24h series is currently non-zero but below the magnitude floor.

Run timestamp: 2026-09-14T01:08:51Z

Evidence (verbatim from this run):

Baseline comparison for chat_message_24h:
current=3 median_7d=0 median_28d=0 ratio_vs_28d=null z_score_28d=-0.01752535427615448 history_days_28d=28 emerged_from_zero=true emerged_from_zero_magnitude_floor=23.5 emerged_from_zero_significant=false

Interpretation: emerged-from-zero present but below magnitude floor — not filed.

Heartbeat: signal has been clean since last_active_at=2026-09-08T16:36:11Z (mechanical days_since_last_active=6).

Evidence (chat_message_24h):
current=2 median_7d=0 median_28d=0 ratio_vs_28d=null z_score_28d=-0.1496706213985346 history_days_28d=29
Note: emerged_from_zero=true but emerged_from_zero_significant=false — emerged-from-zero, below magnitude floor — not filed.

Closing stale finding: chat_message emergence has been clean for the required window.

Evidence (verbatim from this run)

Series chat_message_24h:
current=0
median_7d=0
median_28d=0
ratio_vs_28d=null
z_score_28d=-0.40058930242978324
history_days_28d=29
low_confidence=false
max_28d=47
emerged_from_zero=false
emerged_from_zero_magnitude_floor=23.5
emerged_from_zero_significant=false
informational_only=false
dormant_exempt=true

Mechanical metadata (from known.open)

last_active_at=2026-09-08T16:36:11Z
days_since_last_active=7
consecutive_clean_days=6

Per monitor rules: mechanical_signal_available: true and days_since_last_active >= 7, and this run's live evidence independently confirms the signal is clean. Closing the issue.

Problem

chat_message_24h emerged-from-zero: 14 chat messages in trailing 24h (normally 0).

Evidence

"chat_message_24h": {
"current": 14,
"median_7d": 0,
"median_28d": 0,
"ratio_vs_28d": null,
"z_score_28d": 2.519968004876566,
"history_days_28d": 29,
"low_confidence": false,
"max_28d": 22,
"emerged_from_zero": true,
"emerged_from_zero_magnitude_floor": 11,
"emerged_from_zero_significant": true,
"informational_only": false,
"dormant_exempt": true
}

Baseline comparison

current=14 median_7d=0 median_28d=0 ratio_vs_28d=null z_score_28d=2.519968004876566 history_days_28d=29

Change correlation

unexplained: checked change_context — no merges to src/CouponHubBot/ in the preceding 72h and ArgoCD deploy history shows no deploys in the last 72h.

Run timestamp: 2026-10-17T16:29:58Z (bundle current_ts)

Problem

chat_message_24h (chat messages received in the trailing-24h window) has emerged from zero and is now non-zero.

Evidence

"chat_message_24h": {
  "current": 14,
  "median_7d": 0,
  "median_28d": 0,
  "ratio_vs_28d": null,
  "z_score_28d": 2.459722224280432,
  "history_days_28d": 29,
  "low_confidence": false,
  "max_28d": 22,
  "emerged_from_zero": true,
  "emerged_from_zero_magnitude_floor": 11,
  "emerged_from_zero_significant": true,
  "informational_only": false,
  "dormant_exempt": true
}

Baseline comparison

current=14 median_7d=0 median_28d=0 ratio_vs_28d=null z_score_28d=2.459722224280432 history_days_28d=29

Change correlation

unexplained: checked change_context — no merges to src/CouponHubBot/ in the preceding 72h; ArgoCD deploy history: none in the last 72h.

Transition: first clean run after the previously-observed emergence.

Evidence (verbatim from this run's bundle):

"chat_message_24h": {
  "current": 9,
  "median_7d": 0,
  "median_28d": 0,
  "ratio_vs_28d": null,
  "z_score_28d": 1.3718439774600728,
  "history_days_28d": 28,
  "low_confidence": false,
  "max_28d": 22,
  "emerged_from_zero": true,
  "emerged_from_zero_magnitude_floor": 11,
  "emerged_from_zero_significant": false,
  "informational_only": false,
  "dormant_exempt": true
}

Change correlation: no merges to src/CouponHubBot/ in the preceding 72h; ArgoCD deploy history for the last 72h: none. For traffic/volume series this would be classified as unexplained if active, but current value is below the magnitude floor (emerged_from_zero_magnitude_floor=11) so this run is considered clean.

Action: marking the fingerprint as clean here (not closing the issue yet; mechanical close requires days_since_last_active >= 7).

Summary: no errors or warnings in Loki (0), pod healthy and synced, container restarts = 0. No new anomalies requiring filing.

Evidence

"chat_message_24h": {
  "current": 19,
  "median_7d": 0,
  "median_28d": 0,
  "ratio_vs_28d": null,
  "z_score_28d": 3.4168695874821653,
  "history_days_28d": 28,
  "low_confidence": false,
  "max_28d": 22,
  "emerged_from_zero": true,
  "emerged_from_zero_magnitude_floor": 11,
  "emerged_from_zero_significant": true,
  "informational_only": false,
  "dormant_exempt": true
}

Change correlation

Merges to src/CouponHubBot/ in the preceding 72h:

848cad9 Fix coupon expiry parsing when OCR omits the end year (Fix coupon expiry parsing when OCR omits the end year #565)
34a94ba feat: save raw coupon OCR responses by Telegram file ID (Save raw coupon OCR responses by Telegram file ID #564)

ArgoCD deploys in the preceding 72h:

id=239 revision=8bd9b1b0160cd9bd15049b2aeb0f7d3af604c289 deployedAt=2026-10-17T22:47:34Z
id=240 revision=16033ca0614c4e368050f354c10fb3e80d1bf74e deployedAt=2026-10-17T23:57:03Z

Classification

Attributed — this is a traffic/volume (dormant_exempt=true) finding plausibly explained by recent merges and ArgoCD deploys touching src/CouponHubBot/ within the last 72 hours. Per monitor rules for traffic/volume series, an attributed change is reported but not filed as a new issue.

Monitor update — active signal observed

Evidence (verbatim from this run's bundle):

"chat_message_24h": {
  "current": 19,
  "median_7d": 0.5,
  "median_28d": 0,
  "ratio_vs_28d": null,
  "z_score_28d": 3.2851528585616876,
  "history_days_28d": 29,
  "low_confidence": false,
  "max_28d": 22,
  "emerged_from_zero": false,
  "emerged_from_zero_magnitude_floor": 11,
  "emerged_from_zero_significant": false,
  "informational_only": false,
  "dormant_exempt": true
}

Baseline comparison (as given):
current=19 median_7d=0.5 median_28d=0 ratio_vs_28d=null z_score_28d=3.2851528585616876 history_days_28d=29

Change correlation:

Merges to src/CouponHubBot/ in preceding 72h: 848cad9 (Fix coupon expiry parsing when OCR omits the end year, Fix coupon expiry parsing when OCR omits the end year #565), 34a94ba (feat: save raw coupon OCR responses by Telegram file ID, Save raw coupon OCR responses by Telegram file ID #564).
ArgoCD deploys in preceding 72h: id=239 rev=8bd9b1b0160c... deployedAt=2026-10-17T22:47:34Z; id=240 rev=16033ca0614c... deployedAt=2026-10-17T23:57:03Z.

Classification: attributed — recent merges + deploys touching src/CouponHubBot/ plausibly explain test/post-deploy traffic to the bot. Per the monitor rules for traffic/volume series, this is recorded as attributed and not filed as a new issue.

Monitor update — coupon — 2026-10-18T08:34:28Z

Evidence

chat_message_24h: current=23, median_7d=2.5, median_28d=0, ratio_vs_28d=null, z_score_28d=3.937329405142202, history_days_28d=29, low_confidence=false

Change correlation

Attributed — merges to src/CouponHubBot/ in the preceding 72h:

848cad9 Fix coupon expiry parsing when OCR omits the end year (Fix coupon expiry parsing when OCR omits the end year #565)
34a94ba feat: save raw coupon OCR responses by Telegram file ID (Save raw coupon OCR responses by Telegram file ID #564)

ArgoCD deploys in the preceding 72h:

id=239 revision=8bd9b1b0160cd9bd15049b2aeb0f7d3af604c289 deployedAt=2026-10-17T22:47:34Z
id=240 revision=16033ca0614c4e368050f354c10fb3e80d1bf74e deployedAt=2026-10-17T23:57:03Z

Classification: attributed (traffic/volume series plausibly explained by recent merges/deploys). No new issue filed.

Notes

No Error/Warning log entries in 24h; pod healthy; p1=false.

Evidence

Series: chat_message_24h — current=38, median_7d=4.5, median_28d=0, ratio_vs_28d=null, z_score_28d=6.494817493597532, history_days_28d=29

Baseline comparison

current=38 median_7d=4.5 median_28d=0 ratio_vs_28d=null z_score_28d=6.494817493597532 history_days_28d=29

Change correlation

attributed: merges touching src/CouponHubBot/ in the preceding 72h include 2fc66ad "Add report button to individual coupon photos" (PR #567). ArgoCD also deployed revisions on 2026-10-17 and 2026-10-18 (latest id=242 deployedAt=2026-10-18T11:52:37Z). These changes plausibly explain the increased chat activity / UI-driven interactions; not filing a new issue for volume here.

Notes

Log volume is elevated this run (log_lines_24h current=254, median_28d=98, ratio=2.59, z_score=3.995) and appears correlated with the same recent merges/deploys; treating as attributed for now.
Leaving this fingerprint open for further monitoring. Post-run summary will record other series evaluated.

Monitor update — coupon — 2026-10-18T20:29:28Z

Evidence

chat_message_24h from evidence bundle:

current = 38
median_7d = 5
median_28d = 0
ratio_vs_28d = null
z_score_28d = 5.237813026208579
history_days_28d = 28
low_confidence = false

Change correlation

Recent merges to src/CouponHubBot/ in the preceding 72h:

2fc66ad Add report button to individual coupon photos (Add report button to individual coupon photos #567)
848cad9 Fix coupon expiry parsing when OCR omits the end year (Fix coupon expiry parsing when OCR omits the end year #565)
34a94ba feat: save raw coupon OCR responses by Telegram file ID (Save raw coupon OCR responses by Telegram file ID #564)

ArgoCD / deployed image evidence:

Deployed image shown in bundle: ghcr.io/szer/coupon-bot:2fc66adf94ae…
ArgoCD deploys in preceding 72h include id=241 (revision=79f9bca, deployedAt=2026-10-18T09:31:31Z) and id=242 (revision=80a7a07, deployedAt=2026-10-18T11:52:37Z).

Classification

attributed — a recent merge/deploy touching src/CouponHubBot/ (notably commit 2fc66ad / image 2fc66adf94ae…) plausibly explains elevated chat activity (new UI interactions such as the "report" button and OCR-related changes). No new issue created.

Monitor update — clean

Run timestamp: 2026-10-19T08:45:31Z

Evidence (verbatim)

chat_message_24h: current=20, median_7d=5, median_28d=0, ratio_vs_28d=null, z_score_28d=2.174405584293059, history_days_28d=29, low_confidence=false

Baseline comparison

current=20 median_7d=5 median_28d=0 ratio_vs_28d=null z_score_28d=2.174405584293059 history_days_28d=29

Note

This run shows emerged_from_zero: false for chat_message_24h so this is the first clean run after the previous active event (last_active_at=2026-10-18T20:31:35Z). No new anomalies detected.

Change correlation

Merges to main touching src/CouponHubBot/ (preceding 72h):

2fc66ad Add report button to individual coupon photos (Add report button to individual coupon photos #567)
848cad9 Fix coupon expiry parsing when OCR omits the end year (Fix coupon expiry parsing when OCR omits the end year #565)
34a94ba feat: save raw coupon OCR responses by Telegram file ID (Save raw coupon OCR responses by Telegram file ID #564)

Emergent chat_message volume — 11 in 24h #468

Description

Problem

Evidence

Baseline comparison

Change correlation

Activity

github-actions commented on Sep 7, 2026

Evidence

Baseline comparison

Change correlation

github-actions commented on Sep 7, 2026

github-actions commented on Sep 8, 2026

github-actions commented on Sep 8, 2026

Problem

Evidence (series: chat_message_24h)

Change correlation

github-actions commented on Sep 8, 2026

Problem

Evidence (series, verbatim)

Change correlation

github-actions commented on Sep 8, 2026

Monitor run comment — chat_message emerged-from-zero (attributed)

Evidence (verbatim)

Change correlation

github-actions commented on Sep 8, 2026

Problem

Evidence (verbatim)

Baseline comparison

Change correlation

github-actions commented on Sep 9, 2026

Transition to clean — chat_message (emerged-from-zero)

Evidence (verbatim)

Notes

github-actions commented on Sep 9, 2026

Status update — emerged chat_message fingerprint

Evidence (verbatim from run bundle)

Run timestamp

github-actions commented on Sep 10, 2026

github-actions commented on Sep 11, 2026

github-actions commented on Sep 12, 2026

Monitor heartbeat — CouponHubBot

Evidence

Assessment

github-actions commented on Sep 14, 2026

github-actions commented on Sep 15, 2026

github-actions commented on Sep 15, 2026

Evidence (verbatim from this run)

Mechanical metadata (from known.open)

github-actions commented on Oct 17, 2026

Problem

Evidence

Baseline comparison

Change correlation

github-actions commented on Oct 17, 2026

Problem

Evidence

Baseline comparison

Change correlation

github-actions commented on Oct 17, 2026

github-actions commented on Oct 18, 2026

Evidence

Change correlation

Classification

github-actions commented on Oct 18, 2026

Monitor update — active signal observed

github-actions commented on Oct 18, 2026

Monitor update — coupon — 2026-10-18T08:34:28Z

Evidence

Change correlation

Notes

github-actions commented on Oct 18, 2026

Evidence

Baseline comparison

Change correlation

Notes

github-actions commented on Oct 18, 2026

Monitor update — coupon — 2026-10-18T20:29:28Z

Evidence

Change correlation

Evidence (series: `chat_message_24h`)