proposal: FermiSanityCheck validation gate (docs-only, #70)

docs/proposals/70-fermi-sanity-check-validation-gate.md

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+# FermiSanityCheck as the Validation Gate
+
+**Date:** 2026-02-25  
+**Authors:** Egon & Larry  
+**Status:** Proposal (docs-only — awaiting Simon's review before implementation)  
+**Tags:** validation, planexe, strategy  
+
+---
+
+## Summary
+
+FermiSanityCheck is the first rule-based guard that touches every PlanExe assumption. Rather than a plan generator, PlanExe should be the **auditing gate** that agents call before executing assumptions. This proposal explains how the validation module should operate, what signals it emits, and how to keep it extensible for domain-specific heuristics.
+
+---
+
+## Problem
+
+Autonomous agents hallucinate when they accept ungrounded claims: missing bounds, 100× spans, and low-confidence evidence. We already added a prototype `fermi_sanity_check.py`, but it currently mixes English-only heuristics, hardcoded units, and no documented extensions. Simon highlighted the need for proposals before implementation; we need a clean doc describing the validation gate before touching more code.
+
+---
+
+## Proposal Scope
+
+### 1. Inputs
+Describe the structured `QuantifiedAssumption` contract (claim, lower/upper, unit, confidence, evidence) and how `MakeAssumptions` outputs feed it.
+
+### 2. Validation Rules
+Outline the core checks:
+- Bounds present and non-contradictory
+- Span ratio ≤ 100× (warn at 50×)
+- Evidence present for low-confidence claims
+- Budget/timeline/team heuristics (domain-agnostic defaults)
+
+And how they map to signal categories (assumptions, governance, WBS, etc.).
+
+### 3. Outputs
+Define the JSON report (`pass/fail`, reasons, `pass_rate_pct`) and Markdown summary, plus how downstream tasks should consume them.
+
+### 4. Extensibility
+Provide guidance on adding domain profiles (carpenter/dentist/personal), currency/metric conversions, and future keyword lists so the validation gate remains adaptable — **without hardcoding English-specific terms in the core module**.
+
+### 5. Metrics
+Suggest how we will measure success:
+- `pass_rate_pct` per plan
+- Reduction in downstream review cycles
+- Agent adoption of validation report before task execution
+
+---
+
+## Deliverables
+
+1. This doc-only PR in `docs/proposals/70-fermi-sanity-check-validation-gate.md`
+2. A short appendix with example validation reports and sample prompts for hallucination triggers
+3. A review checklist for Simon: do these checks cover the key failure modes? Are the hooks for downstream tasks clear?
+
+---
+
+## Why Docs First
+
+The previous implementation attempt (PR #69) was rejected because:
+- Too large (mixed too many concerns)
+- Hardcoded units (English-only heuristics)
+- No proposal approved before implementation
+
+This proposal isolates the **why and what** from the **how**. Once approved, implementation resumes with a clear mandate and clean scope.
+
+---
+
+## Next Steps
+
+Once Simon approves this proposal:
+1. Implementation (FermiSanityCheck module, domain normalizer, DAG wiring) resumes
+2. Each implementation PR stays small and focused on one concern
+3. Domain profiles are a separate proposal (not bundled with validation rules)
+
+---
+
+*Incident reference: `swarm-coordination/events/2026/feb/2026-02-25-planexe-implementation-without-proposal-approval.md`*

docs/proposals/71-strategy-auditor.md

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+# From Plan Generator to Autonomous Agent Auditor
+
+**Date:** 26 February 2026  
+**Authors:** Larry, Egon, Simon (for review)  
+**Status:** Strategic Proposal for Feedback  
+
+---
+
+## Executive Summary
+
+PlanExe was originally positioned as a plan *generator* — take a vague idea, have an LLM dream up a business plan. In 2025, we learned that LLMs hallucinate plans with no grounding. By 2026, the market has moved on: agents don't need another hallucinated plan generator.
+
+**What agents actually need:** A trusted auditing layer that validates whether the assumptions driving their autonomous workflows are sane.
+
+This proposal argues that PlanExe's real value in 2026 is as **the canonical auditing gate for autonomous agent loops** — not as a plan creator, but as a safety layer that prevents hallucinations before they propagate downstream.
+
+---
+
+## The Problem: Autonomous Agents in Bubbles
+
+Agents run in isolation. They have no world model. They can't verify if their assumptions are grounded in reality. They hallucinate:
+- Cost estimates that are off by orders of magnitude
+- Timelines that ignore real-world constraints
+- Team sizes that make no sense
+
+**The consequence:** Bad assumptions → bad downstream decisions → failed autonomy.
+
+Agents need an external oracle that can say: **"This assumption is grounded. Proceed."** or **"This looks hallucinated. Re-evaluate."**
+
+---
+
+## The Opportunity: Validation as a Service
+
+**What we've built in Phase 1-2:**
+
+1. **FermiSanityCheck (Phase 1)**: A validation gate that inspects every quantified assumption:
+   - Are bounds present and non-contradictory?
+   - Is the span ratio reasonable (≤100×)?
+   - Does low-confidence claim have supporting evidence?
+   - Do the numbers pass domain heuristics?
+
+   **Output:** Structured JSON + Markdown that agents can parse deterministically.
+
+2. **Domain-Aware Auditor (Phase 2)**: Auto-detect the domain (carpenter, dentist, personal project) and normalize to domain standards:
+   - Currency → domain default + EUR for comparison
+   - Units → metric
+   - Confidence keywords → domain-aware signals
+
+   **Why it matters:** "Cost 5000" means nothing without context. "5000 DKK for a carpenter project" is verifiable and sane. FermiSanityCheck becomes the translator.
+
+---
+
+## Why This Wins in the Agentic Economy
+
+### 1. **Software Already Won the LLM Game**
+Code is verifiable. It compiles or it doesn't. Tests pass or they don't. No trust required.
+
+**Business plans?** No immediate validation. High trust requirement. High risk.
+
+### 2. **Agents Are Untrusted Sources**
+The lesson from 2025: don't trust the AI.
+
+In 2026, agents will run in bubbles. External content will be labeled as untrusted to prevent prompt injection. But agents still need *some* external signal they can trust.
+
+**PlanExe becomes that trusted signal.** It's not trying to out-think the agent; it's just saying: "Your assumption passes quantitative grounding. You can rely on it."
+
+### 3. **Auditing is Composable**
+Agents will chain together. Agent A's output becomes Agent B's input. Without a validation layer, assumptions compound into hallucinations.
+
+**PlanExe sits in the middle:** catches bad assumptions before they propagate.
+
+---
+
+## The Business Model Shift
+
+### Before (2025 thinking):
+- Sell plans to humans
+- Revenue: per-plan generation
+- Value proposition: "Better plans than manual consulting"
+- Problem: Plans are hallucinated; no immediate verification
+
+### After (2026 reality):
+- Sell validation to agents
+- Revenue: per-assumption audited (or per-agent subscription)
+- Value proposition: "Safe, trustworthy validation gate for autonomous loops"
+- Advantage: Immediate, deterministic output (JSON); agents can compose it
+
+---
+
+## Implementation Path
+
+### Phase 1: ✅ Done
+- FermiSanityCheck validator
+- DAG integration (MakeAssumptions → Validate → DistillAssumptions)
+- Structured JSON output
+
+### Phase 2: 🔄 In Progress
+- Domain profiles (Carpenter, Dentist, Personal, Startup, etc.)
+- Auto-detection + normalization
+- Ready for integration testing
+
+### Phase 3: Proposed
+- Auditing API (agents call `/validate` with assumptions)
+- Trust scoring (confidence + grounding + domain consistency)
+- Audit logs (track what agents relied on)
+
+---
+
+## Key Questions for Simon
+
+1. **Does this positioning resonate?** Are we solving the right problem for agents?
+
+2. **Should we lean harder into auditor narrative?**
+   - Update PRs to frame FermiSanityCheck as "validation gate for agents"
+   - Reposition marketing toward agent platforms (not humans)
+   - Build toward auditing API (Phase 3)
+
+3. **Or stay hybrid?** Keep the plan-generator story + add auditing as a feature?
+
+4. **What does success look like in 2026?**
+   - Agents paying for validation service?
+   - PlanExe as a required middleware in agentic workflows?
+   - Something else?
+
+---
+
+## Next Steps
+
+1. **Simon's feedback** on positioning (auditor vs. hybrid)
+2. **Phase 2 completion** + integration testing
+3. **PR updates** (if auditor positioning is approved)
+4. **Phase 3 design** (auditing API + trust scoring)
+
+---
+
+**End of proposal.** Ready for Simon's thoughts.