Add single-process live engine runner

[Mathews-Tom]

Summary

This PR closes the first operational gap from the current development state: Augur now has a single-process runner that can drive the existing in-process extraction engine from checked-in configuration. It also aligns the detector config with the strict Pydantic schema and updates repo-facing documentation so the project is framed as a structured prediction-market signal pipeline rather than generic anomaly detection.

Changes

Engine runner

• Adds scripts/run_engine.py as the local monolith entrypoint.
• Loads AUGUR_CONFIG_DIR or defaults to config/.
• Validates config/markets.toml with a strict local schema.
• Fails fast when no active markets exist.
• Builds the existing in-process extraction stack:
  • DuckDB store
  • detector registry
  • manipulation detector
  • cluster merge
  • in-process bus
  • context assembler
  • feature pipeline
• Creates platform pollers only for platforms present in the active watchlist.
• Keeps Polymarket-only operation credential-free.
• Preserves Kalshi fail-fast behavior through KalshiPoller, which requires KALSHI_API_KEY when active Kalshi markets exist.
• Emits canonical SignalContext JSON to stdout via augur_format.deterministic.json_feed.

Config contract

• Updates config/detectors.toml to match DetectorsConfig field names.
• Converts documentation-era keys such as hazard, fire_probability_threshold, top_levels, and cross_market_divergence into the strict runtime schema fields.
• Adds a checked-in config regression test so detector config drift is caught by normal tests.

Documentation and product framing

• Updates README.md and root package metadata to describe Augur as structured intelligence signals from prediction markets.
• Documents the single-process runner as a current runnable surface.
• Updates docs/operations/manual-testing.md with:
  • runner commands
  • runtime contract
  • current expected fail-fast behavior while the watchlist only contains an inactive placeholder
  • remaining known gaps

Local state hygiene

• Adds /.cocoindex_code/ to .gitignore so local CocoIndex state remains local and cannot be accidentally committed.

Tests

• Adds tests/signals/test_run_engine.py covering:
  • empty active watchlist failure
  • remapping platform market IDs to configured market IDs
• Extends tests/signals/test_config.py to validate the checked-in detector config.

Validation

Ran the full local gate:

uv run ruff check .
uv run ruff format --check .
uv run mypy --strict src/
uv run pytest
uv run python scripts/export_schemas.py --check

Results:

• ruff check: passed
• ruff format --check: passed
• mypy --strict src/: passed
• pytest: 368 passed, total coverage about 86 percent
• schema export check: passed

Runner smoke:

uv run python scripts/run_engine.py --help
uv run python scripts/run_engine.py --once

• --help works.
• --once fails fast as expected because config/markets.toml currently has no active markets.

Follow-up

The next branch should replace the inactive placeholder in config/markets.toml with a small Polymarket-only active watchlist, run uv run python scripts/run_engine.py --once, and verify snapshots land in data/augur.duckdb before implementing scripts/backtest.py.