docs(may-agent): 90-risk-log — 7 risks with severity matrix, mitigations, and escalation triggers

.planning/may-agent/90-risk-log.md

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+# 90 — Risk Log: May 31 Derailers and Mitigations
+
+**Status**: Draft
+**Date**: 2026-05-13
+**Depends on**: 00-vision.md
+
+## TL;DR
+
+18 days to May 31. Top risks: Rust team buy-in (cultural), Hermes upstream
+churn (technical), 邓Sir bandwidth (organizational), Python GIL contention
+(performance), and cross-platform sandbox (complexity). Each risk has a
+specific mitigation and an escalation trigger.
+
+## Risk Register
+
+### R1: Rust Team Buy-In
+
+| Field | Value |
+|-------|-------|
+| **Severity** | 🔴 High |
+| **Likelihood** | 🟡 Medium |
+| **Owner** | Nolan |
+| **Status** | 🟡 Monitored |
+
+**Description**: Yifan flagged: "团队大部分人习惯 Python，第一反应会抗拒."
+Pushing Rust too hard too fast could alienate the team and slow adoption.
+
+**Mitigation**:
+1. Keep Python for agent core — Rust only for runtime, sandbox, and CLI
+2. Nolan owns 100% of Rust code initially; team contributes Python as before
+3. Write Rust in an accessible style: avoid advanced lifetimes, prefer clone
+   over complex borrows in early iterations
+4. Ship a working Python-only MVP first, then incrementally replace components
+   with Rust — don't start with a blank Rust repo
+
+**Escalation trigger**: If any team member expresses vocal resistance to Rust,
+pause Rust expansion and focus on Python EverCore integration. Escalate to
+Yifan for team alignment discussion.
+
+### R2: Hermes Upstream Churn
+
+| Field | Value |
+|-------|-------|
+| **Severity** | 🔴 High |
+| **Likelihood** | 🟢 High |
+| **Owner** | Nolan |
+| **Status** | 🟢 Mitigated |
+
+**Description**: Hermes ships rapidly (v0.13 released May 2026, 13 releases
+since v0.2). Aggressive upstream churn could make the fork stale or cause
+painful rebase conflicts.
+
+**Mitigation**:
+1. Fork at a stable SHA (not a branch). Pin to a known-good commit.
+2. Rebase onto upstream quarterly, not weekly. Accept being 1-2 versions
+   behind as the price of stability.
+3. Upstream PRs (Nolan's existing contributor status) keep the fork's
+   changes aligned with upstream's direction
+4. Hermes is MIT — no legal pressure to stay current
+
+**Escalation trigger**: If a critical security fix lands in Hermes upstream
+and the fork is >2 versions behind, prioritize a rebase sprint.
+
+### R3: 邓Sir Bandwidth
+
+| Field | Value |
+|-------|-------|
+| **Severity** | 🟡 Medium |
+| **Likelihood** | 🟢 High |
+| **Owner** | Nolan |
+| **Status** | 🟢 Mitigated |
+
+**Description**: 邓Sir "all in 自己的 Agent 品牌上线，可能无暇顾及多."
+The May Agent's architecture reviewer may have limited availability.
+
+**Mitigation**:
+1. Nolan owns architecture decisions; 邓Sir reviews, doesn't drive
+2. Write self-contained architecture docs (this document set) so review
+   is fast — 邓Sir can read in 30 min and give thumbs up/down
+3. Weekly async sync: one Markdown doc, not a meeting
+4. Fallback: Yifan can approve architecture if 邓Sir is unavailable
+
+**Escalation trigger**: If 邓Sir is unavailable for >2 weeks and a critical
+architecture decision is blocked, escalate to Yifan for decision authority.
+
+### R4: Python GIL Contention
+
+| Field | Value |
+|-------|-------|
+| **Severity** | 🟡 Medium |
+| **Likelihood** | 🟡 Medium |
+| **Owner** | Nolan |
+| **Status** | 🟢 Mitigated |
+
+**Description**: The Python agent core runs under the GIL. If the Rust
+runtime calls into Python from multiple tokio tasks, GIL contention could
+bottleneck throughput.
+
+**Mitigation**:
+1. **Subprocess-per-session model**: each agent session is a separate Python
+   subprocess (not thread). No GIL sharing across sessions.
+2. **PyO3 `allow_threads`**: release the GIL during Rust-native operations
+   (HTTP calls, sandbox execution, file I/O)
+3. **Bounded concurrency**: max 10 concurrent Python subprocesses. Beyond
+   that, queue in Rust.
+4. **If GIL becomes the bottleneck**: move tool dispatch to Rust. The
+   `ToolDispatcher::resolve()` → `ToolBackend::Native` path already supports
+   this without changing the agent core.
+
+**Escalation trigger**: If single-session latency exceeds 500ms p95 due to
+GIL contention, prioritize moving one hot tool to Rust native dispatch.
+
+### R5: Cross-Platform Sandbox
+
+| Field | Value |
+|-------|-------|
+| **Severity** | 🟡 Medium |
+| **Likelihood** | 🟢 High |
+| **Owner** | Nolan |
+| **Status** | 🟡 Monitored |
+
+**Description**: seccomp-bpf only works on Linux. macOS needs Seatbelt
+(`sandbox_init_with_parameters`). Windows has no kernel sandbox. Cross-platform
+sandbox is a multi-month effort — not realistic for May 31.
+
+**Mitigation**:
+1. **May 31**: Linux seccomp + macOS Docker fallback. No Windows.
+2. **macOS native sandbox**: use `sandbox_init` from libsystem (documented in
+   `CLAUDE_DESKTOP_SANDBOX_SOURCE_TRUTH.md`). Lower priority than seccomp.
+3. **Docker fallback**: reuses Hermes's existing Docker environment code.
+   Always available, just slower.
+4. **Accept the gap**: Evil Agent Bench only tests Linux initially.
+
+**Escalation trigger**: If a customer demands Windows support, escalate to
+Yifan for prioritization — Windows sandbox is not in the May 31 scope.
+
+### R6: May 31 Deadline
+
+| Field | Value |
+|-------|-------|
+| **Severity** | 🔴 High |
+| **Likelihood** | 🟢 High |
+| **Owner** | Yifan + Nolan |
+| **Status** | 🟢 Mitigated |
+
+**Description**: 18 days from today. The full vision (Rust runtime + seccomp
+sandbox + WeCom + Feishu + 2 benchmarks + desktop shell) is not realistic.
+Scope must be cut.
+
+**Mitigation**:
+1. **Scope to MVP**: single binary + 1 platform (WeCom) + memory works +
+   1 benchmark result. Everything else is stretch.
+2. **Prioritize ruthlessly**: if it's not in the success criteria table
+   (00-vision.md), it's not required for May 31.
+3. **Ship incrementally**: binary first, platform second, benchmarks third.
+   Each is independently demonstrable.
+4. **Communicate early**: if May 31 is at risk by May 20, tell Yifan
+   immediately. Don't hero-code to the deadline silently.
+
+**Escalation trigger**: If by May 20 the binary doesn't build end-to-end,
+escalate to Yifan for scope renegotiation.
+
+### R7: Hermes Community Reaction
+
+| Field | Value |
+|-------|-------|
+| **Severity** | 🟢 Low |
+| **Likelihood** | 🟢 Low |
+| **Owner** | Nolan |
+| **Status** | 🟢 Monitored |
+
+**Description**: The Hermes community could perceive the fork as competitive
+rather than collaborative, damaging Nolan's contributor standing.
+
+**Mitigation**:
+1. **"Respectful fork" pattern**: continue upstream PRs for non-differentiating
+   improvements (bug fixes, tool improvements, model provider updates)
+2. **Keep Evercore integration fork-only initially** — don't push memory
+   abstraction changes upstream until proven and stable
+3. **Nolan's 2 merged PRs establish good faith** — the community knows him
+   as a contributor, not a competitor
+4. **MIT license means no legal risk** — the fork is perfectly legitimate
+
+**Escalation trigger**: If a Hermes maintainer expresses concern publicly,
+Nolan should engage directly and explain the fork-as-lab model.
+
+## Risk Heatmap
+
+```
+Likelihood
+  High │  R2 ●     R3 ●     R5 ●     R6 ●
+       │
+Medium │  R1 ●     R4 ●
+       │
+   Low │  R7 ●
+       │
+       └──────────────────────────────────
+         Low      Medium     High
+                   Severity
+```
+
+## Weekly Review Cadence
+
+| Week | Date | Focus | Owner |
+|------|------|-------|-------|
+| W1 | May 13-17 | Architecture docs + Rust skeleton | Nolan |
+| W2 | May 18-24 | Python-Rust FFI + Evercore integration | Nolan + 七仔 |
+| W3 | May 25-31 | Platform adapter + benchmarks + ship | All |
+
+Each Friday: review risk register, update statuses, escalate if needed.
+
+## References
+
+- 00-vision.md — success criteria and risk log (top 5)
+- `CLAUDE_DESKTOP_SANDBOX_SOURCE_TRUTH.md` — macOS sandbox forensics
+- `~/.claude/projects/.../memory/project_evermind_2026_05.md` — team context