[codex] Sync LP formulation and submission page-count docs

paper/CRPTO_ijds.qmd

@@ -280,29 +280,37 @@ group coverage, width, alert, and Winkler checks.
 
 ## Robust Portfolio Layer
 
-The decision variable is the funded amount or inclusion weight for each
-eligible loan. The optimizer maximizes expected net economic return under a
-`$1M` budget and policy constraints that cap portfolio risk after replacing
-point PD estimates with conformal upper endpoints. The promoted policy has
+The decision variable $x_i$ is the allocation fraction for each eligible loan;
+$x_i a_i$ is the funded exposure. The optimizer maximizes expected net
+economic return under a `$1M` budget and policy constraints that cap portfolio
+risk after replacing point PD estimates with conformal upper endpoints. The
+promoted policy has
 `risk_tolerance = 0.175`, `policy_mode = blended_uncertainty`, policy parameter
 `gamma = 0.45`, and `uncertainty_aversion = 0.1`.
 
 Schematically, the robust decision layer solves a budgeted allocation problem
 of the form
 
-```text
-maximize_x     sum_i x_i a_i (c_i - p_tilde_i(alpha, gamma) * L)
-subject to     sum_i x_i a_i <= B,
-               sum_i x_i a_i p_tilde_i(alpha, gamma)
-                    <= tau sum_i x_i a_i,
-               0 <= x_i <= xbar_i,
-```
+$$
+\begin{aligned}
+\max_x\quad & \sum_i x_i a_i \left(c_i - \tilde p_i(\alpha,\gamma)\,L\right) \\
+\text{s.t.}\quad & \sum_i x_i a_i \le B,\\
+& \sum_i x_i a_i \tilde p_i(\alpha,\gamma)
+   \le \tau \sum_i x_i a_i,\\
+& 0 \le x_i \le \bar x_i,
+\end{aligned}
+$$
 
 where `a_i` is exposure, `c_i` is the loan coupon (interest rate), `L` is the
 loss-given-default (`L = 0.45` in the frozen evaluation), $\tau$ is the
 risk-tolerance cap, and
-`p_tilde_i(alpha, gamma) = p_hat_i + gamma (u_i(alpha) - p_hat_i)` on the PD
-scale, clipped to the feasible probability range. The objective is the *expected*
+
+$$
+\tilde p_i(\alpha,\gamma)
+= \hat p_i + \gamma\left(u_i(\alpha)-\hat p_i\right)
+$$
+
+on the PD scale, clipped to the feasible probability range. The objective is the *expected*
 net return `c_i - p_tilde_i * L`; the headline `$170,464.54` is the
 *realized* return of the same funded set, scored post hoc on observed defaults
 (a funded loan earns `c_i * a_i` if it survives and loses `L * a_i` if it

paper/submission/CRPTO_ijds_submission.tex

@@ -307,10 +307,10 @@ \subsection{Mondrian Conformal Layer}\label{sec:method-cp}
 
 \subsection{Robust Portfolio Layer}\label{sec:method-lp}
 
-The decision variable is the funded amount or inclusion weight for each eligible
-loan. The optimizer maximizes expected net economic return under a \$1M budget and
-policy constraints that cap portfolio risk after replacing point PD estimates with
-conformal upper endpoints. The promoted policy has $\texttt{risk\_tolerance}=0.175$,
+The decision variable $x_i$ is the allocation fraction for each eligible loan;
+$x_i a_i$ is the funded exposure. The optimizer maximizes expected net economic
+return under a \$1M budget and policy constraints that cap portfolio risk after
+replacing point PD estimates with conformal upper endpoints. The promoted policy has $\texttt{risk\_tolerance}=0.175$,
 $\texttt{policy\_mode}=\texttt{blended\_uncertainty}$, policy parameter
 $\gamma=0.45$, and $\texttt{uncertainty\_aversion}=0.1$.
 

paper/submission/IJDS_SUBMISSION_ROADMAP_2026-08-10.md

@@ -34,7 +34,7 @@ CRPTO should be read as data science for decisions:
 | Jul 11-17 | External replication polish | Prosper/Freddie remain evidence of recipe transfer, not new exact certificates. |
 | Jul 18-24 | Figures and tables | Captions state takeaway; tables fit IJDS; figures remain readable in grayscale. |
 | Jul 25-31 | Reproducibility package | Data/code disclosure plan, commands, hashes, DVC pointers, and raw-data instructions are ready. |
-| Aug 1-5 | Official template | Body compiles in `informs4` with `dblanonrev`; current local build is 23 pages including references, with final ScholarOne proof still pending. |
+| Aug 1-5 | Official template | Body compiles in `informs4` with `dblanonrev`; current local build is 24 pages including references, with final ScholarOne proof still pending. |
 | Aug 6-8 | Double-anonymous QA | Metadata, URLs, acknowledgements, local paths, and author signals are removed from reviewer-facing PDFs. |
 | Aug 9-10 | Submission freeze | `just lint`, `just smoke`, `just validate-champion`, `just paper-submission-pdf`, and visual QA pass. |
 

paper/submission/README.md

@@ -73,9 +73,9 @@ PDF crop box cuts the right edge under `informs4`.
 > `informs4.cls`, `informs2014.bst`, template PDFs, `.sty` files, or generated
 > LaTeX build artifacts.
 
-Current local build state (verified 2026-06-09): TinyTeX/TeX Live 2026,
+Current local build state (verified 2026-06-14): TinyTeX/TeX Live 2026,
 Strawberry Perl 5.42.2.1, and the `listingsutf8` TeX package compile
-`CRPTO_ijds_submission.tex` to a 23-page official-template PDF. The only LaTeX
+`CRPTO_ijds_submission.tex` to a 24-page official-template PDF. The only LaTeX
 log warnings left are a small `\maketitle` overfull from the `informs4`
 anonymous title block and one float-only page, both visually acceptable. The
 body is comfortably inside the IJDS 25-page initial-submission budget even
@@ -151,7 +151,7 @@ These protocols are compatible but not interchangeable.
 - Use `SCHOLARONE_FINAL_CHECKLIST.md` while uploading and reviewing the generated
   proof.
 - Recheck the official-template page budget if the body changes materially. The
-  current local official-template build is 23 pages.
+  current local official-template build is 24 pages.
 - Keep A3--A34 in the online supplement unless a reviewer-facing argument needs
   one compact table in the body.
 - Preserve CRPTO as the coverage/auditability method and SPO+ as the low-regret
@@ -193,7 +193,7 @@ updates the template.
 
 4. **Recount the official-template page budget** and demote body floats to the
    supplement only if it exceeds 25 pages. The local official-template build is
-   currently 23 pages; the Chrome-print body preview is only a verification
+   currently 24 pages; the Chrome-print body preview is only a verification
    proxy.
 5. **Verify anonymity** against the checklist above, then upload the body PDF and
    submit the title page separately.

paper/submission/SCHOLARONE_FINAL_CHECKLIST.md

@@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ template files have been downloaded outside Git.
    ```
 
 4. Confirm body page count is at most 25 pages excluding references and
-   appendices. The local official-template build is currently 23 pages total.
+   appendices. The local official-template build is currently 24 pages total.
 
 ## Final Local Gates