feat(rate-of-closure): add chip forgiveness decision analysis

[d-sorgcodexagent]

Summary

Adds a production-hardened, single-candidate chip-shot forgiveness decision-analysis slice to the rate-of-closure swing variation workbench.

• retains every trial as a typed contact cohort, including ball miss and numerical failure outcomes
• reports expected loss, worst-tail CVaR, Wilson cohort intervals, deterministic bootstrap confidence intervals, and convergence evidence
• exports complete reproducibility manifests plus per-trial CSV/JSON evidence
• exposes the analysis in both standalone PyQt6 and React interfaces
• mirrors physical-domain validation and deterministic inference across Python and TypeScript
• excludes illustrative turf metrics from ranking loss and labels the model boundary explicitly

Acceptance Evidence

• Python: 844 passed, 2 optional build123d skips, 15 warnings
• Web: 58 files, 367 tests passed
• Focused feature tests: 27 Python and 29 web tests passed
• Ruff check and format: passed
• mypy (20 source files): passed
• production module-budget gate: passed
• ESLint, TypeScript, and Vite production build: passed
• live browser QA at http://localhost:5270/: 4/4 swing runs completed; cohorts, loss/CVaR/Wilson evidence, scatter matrices, and exports rendered; no browser warnings or errors
• standalone PyQt6 launcher remained live during verification

Deliberate Open Scope

This is a bounded implementation slice for #4164 and does not close the issue. The following acceptance work remains:

• multi-candidate wedge/technique sweep and integrated Pareto comparison UI
• browser Web Worker execution, responsive cancellation, and large-run performance/memory budgets
• broader arc-envelope and sensitivity analyses across loft, bounce, grind, and delivery candidates
• calibrated turf/contact validation; the current reduced firm-fairway model is explicitly illustrative
• no universal best-technique or universal bounce ranking is claimed

Stack

Base: feat/4162-wedge-impact-visualization (#4179)

Related: #4158, #4164

[dieterolson]

Superseded by #4466, which consolidates all 43 open src/rate_of_closure PRs into one
branch. Closing this one is measured, not assumed: verify_coverage.sh reports
safe=43 NOT-covered=0 against consolidated/rate-closure-remainder-2026-08-13, so this
PR's head is contained and nothing here is dropped.

Stacks were folded top-down (each child into its own parent, then the parent upward), so
non-tip work is included rather than skipped — including 8067ca79a (#4171, CAD export
artifact validation) and f9afa9d96 (#4309, strict ground result playback), each of which
lived in exactly one PR and is absent from its stack tip.

The consolidation also repairs defects the merge exposed, listed in #4466: two unguarded
datetime.UTC imports that break the Python 3.10 lane, a PyQt module registry that could no
longer construct the main window, the club-assembly binding and STL/sidecar controls that had
been dropped from the wired tree, and a filelock dependency that would have failed
tests (3.11) at collection.

Reopen this PR if you need its branch; the branch itself is untouched.