docs(adr): replace heuristic timeout allocator with statistical measurement contract - #1020
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PR #1010 (per-model timeout admin panel) was closed by the repo owner because its 1-14400s bounds were "picked by analogy, not research," with an explicit reuse condition: "If a research-/standard-backed timeout allocator with executable provenance is later implemented, the UI/persistence work can be selectively reused behind that owner." This ADR is that allocator. It is honest about what exists vs. what is proposed: no latency-percentile telemetry exists in this repo today (model_group.py collapses every call into a single EWMA scalar with no raw retention; cost_ledger has no latency column; admin.py/orchestrator.py carry only hardcoded/static placeholder percentile values) -- so Phase 0 (schema + retention, fed from timing calls that already exist) is a real prerequisite before Phases 1-3's quantile math can run on real traffic. Phase 1 gates any percentile estimate on a literature-derived sample-size floor (Ialongo, 2019a/b; David & Nagaraja, 2003) and uses the Harrell-Davis / trimmed-Harrell-Davis estimator (Harrell & Davis, 1982; Akinshin, 2021, 2022) rather than a naive percentile. Phase 2 uses the TTFT/TPOT decomposition diagnostically only, not as the timeout formula itself (Wang et al., 2024/2025, show that shape is gameable), and degrades gracefully for reasoning models whose completion time is empirically bimodal rather than merely heavy-tailed (Oladri et al., 2026; Li et al., 2025; DeepSeek-AI, 2025) by always surfacing a non-convergence rate alongside the suggestion instead of inventing an unfounded cutoff. Phase 3's fallback ladder ends in "no suggestion" (null), matching this org's own standing no-fixed-wall-clock-timeout policy (.github's docs/adr/0003 2026-08-31 amendment; contextual-orchestrator#971) rather than inventing a conservative constant. No MIN/MAX platform ceiling is reintroduced -- none of the three research tracks behind this design establish one, and #971 has since made "no bound" the library default. The admin surface stays read-only/optional, writing through #1010's existing set_model_timeout/audit path only when an operator opts in -- the exact reuse the closing comment invited. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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📝 WalkthroughWalkthroughADR 0127이 per-model 지연 측정 계약을 추가합니다. 계약은 관측 보존, 경험적·중도절단 추정, 감사 조건, 검증 테스트를 정의합니다. 자동 타임아웃 추천은 별도 결정 모델이 마련될 때까지 Changes지연 측정 계약
Estimated code review effort: 2 (Simple) | ~10 minutes Merge Risk: 🟡 Moderate · up to ADR 0127 keeps timeout recommendations disabled, but its future measurement contract could produce inconsistent or incorrect latency results unless the survival-quantile rule, parameter validation, and analysis-window time basis are specified before adoption. 🚥 Pre-merge checks | ✅ 5✅ Passed checks (5 passed)
✨ Finishing Touches🧪 Generate unit tests (beta)
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main already carries an unrelated ADR at docs/planning/adrs/0125-domain-neutral-rater-observation-context.md (from #917). Merging main into this branch left two different ADRs both numbered 0125, which is a same-number collision per this repo's convention ("a rename, not a redesign") and fails the executable uniqueness contract in tests/test_planning_adr_identifiers.py. Renumber this branch's ADR to the next free number, 0127, and update its self-reference and the matching contract test's path/title reference. No content change beyond the identifier. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BV96rXhqoR3tYZ9AeAVur4
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) PR #1012 and PR #1020 both independently renumbered their new ADR to 0127 after each collided separately with main's #917. That left both PRs claiming 0127, which would collide again on merge. Since main currently tops out at 0126, 0127 stays genuinely free and PR #1020 keeps it; this PR moves to 0128, the next free number, verified against current main and cross-checked against PR #1020's own branch for any other numbers it introduces. Renames docs/planning/adrs/0127-openai-chat-responses-shape-translation.md to 0128-openai-chat-responses-shape-translation.md and updates every in-repo reference (ADR front matter id, provider_api_version.py and chat_responses_shape.py docstrings, two orchestrator.py comments, and the CHANGELOG entry). Verified tests/test_planning_adr_identifiers.py passes standalone and also passes with PR #1020's 0127 ADR file temporarily copied in alongside this branch's 0128 file (coexistence simulation only, not merged). Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BV96rXhqoR3tYZ9AeAVur4
PR #1020 (#1020, `docs/planning/adrs/0127-evidence-based-per-model-timeout-allocator.md`) independently claimed ADR number 0127 before this PR was created, and PR #1012 (#1012) already holds 0128 from an earlier same-day collision fix. Per the ADR-uniqueness convention in this repo's CLAUDE.md ("a same-number collision is a rename, not a redesign") and the tie-breaker already applied once today (the more-recently-created/ updated PR bumps further), this PR's ADR renumbers to 0129 -- verified free against origin/main and all 38 currently open PRs by walking each PR's head tree for new docs/planning/adrs/*.md files not present on main. - Rename docs/planning/adrs/0127-canonical-immutable-release.md to 0129-canonical-immutable-release.md; update its front-matter id. - Update every in-repo reference to the old number: .github/workflows/release.yml, tests/test_release_workflow_contract.py, conductor/tracks.md, CHANGELOG.md, docs/product-technical-gap-baseline.md, docs/RELEASING.md. Verified: tests/test_release_notes.py, tests/test_release_workflow_contract.py, tests/test_planning_adr_identifiers.py, tests/test_product_planning_contract.py (30 passed); python -m interrogate -c pyproject.toml . (100.0%); a scratch- directory side-by-side check against PR #1020's 0127 file confirmed no residual collision at the new number. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BV96rXhqoR3tYZ9AeAVur4
PR #972 (feat(discovery): record parallel tool-call capability and exclude single-tool models from orchestrator/free) independently added docs/planning/adrs/0042-parallel-tool-call-capability.md, colliding with this PR's 0042-opencode-go-provider-discovery.md -- neither number exists on main yet. Per this repo's CLAUDE.md, "a same-number collision is a rename, not a redesign," and PR #972 was updated earlier than this PR, so this PR's ADR renumbers instead. 0130 is the next free number after checking docs/planning/adrs/ on current origin/main (highest: 0126) and every other open PR's added ADR files (0127 PR #1020, 0128 PR #1012, 0129 PR #1030, plus PR #972's untouched 0042). Renamed docs/planning/adrs/0042-opencode-go-provider-discovery.md to 0130-opencode-go-provider-discovery.md, updated its front-matter id, and updated the three in-repo prose references to "ADR 0042" for this ADR (contextual_orchestrator/model_discovery.py comment, tests/test_model_discovery.py docstring, docs/kv-credentials.md, CHANGELOG.d/opencode-go-provider-discovery.md). Left the coincidental "0042" substring in docs/planning/adrs/0004-pr-review-merge-loop.md (part of an unrelated git SHA) untouched. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BV96rXhqoR3tYZ9AeAVur4
Devin's review found that running this test file directly (python
tests/test_timeout_allocator_no_heuristics_contract.py) exits successfully
without invoking either contract test -- pytest collects them fine, but
the repository's own documented per-file workflow ("each test file is a
directly runnable script", CLAUDE.md/README.md "Check") validates nothing
for this file specifically, unlike every sibling contract test (e.g.
test_paper_contracts.py, test_repository_security_metadata.py), which end
with an `if __name__ == "__main__":` block that calls each test and prints
"ok".
RED confirmed: reverted the change and reran `python3
tests/test_timeout_allocator_no_heuristics_contract.py` directly -- exit 0,
no output, neither assertion ever executed.
GREEN: same direct invocation now prints "ok" (both contracts actually ran);
`pytest tests/test_timeout_allocator_no_heuristics_contract.py -q` still
2 passed, no behavior change under pytest collection.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BV96rXhqoR3tYZ9AeAVur4
Fixed the one concrete, unaddressed finding: contract file wasn't runnable as a direct scriptTriaged this PR's open threads. Most of the remaining open ones (missing One finding was concrete and independently verifiable, though: Devin flagged that running Fix (commit RED confirmed: reverted the change and ran GREEN: same direct invocation now prints Pushed non-force on top of the existing branch ( Generated by Claude Code |
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Inline comments:
In `@docs/planning/adrs/0127-evidence-based-per-model-timeout-allocator.md`:
- Line 46: Update the analysis-parameter contract in the ADR to define that
target_quantile_probability and confidence level must be finite and strictly
between 0 and 1. Specify the failure behavior for violations: reject the request
or return the complete result as null, using one consistent rule.
- Line 91: Update the Kaplan–Meier quantile identifiability rule in the
evidence-based timeout allocator description to define the crossing threshold as
1 - target_quantile_probability: select the first time where the estimated
survival function is less than or equal to 1-p. Ensure the null quantile and
interval behavior applies only when this threshold is not reached before the
last supported event time.
- Line 56: Define the persisted time basis for analysis_window in the ADR:
specify its representation and selection rule, and store duration_seconds
together with either absolute capture timestamps or a clock-domain identifier
and reference mapping so monotonic request start and terminal values can be
interpreted across workers and hosts.
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Admin-merge rationale (delegated criteria)Ruleset requires review approval that no eligible reviewer can provide for this bot/lead path; the only remaining block was that unobtainable approval. At merge time (head
No ruleset change. Diff was author-owned docs ADR ( |
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Current exact-head gate — 2026-09-07
d459437617be0f1ba5b128f8b5e244d8b1f8133143d878f…established one observation per upstream attempt, immutable endpoint/equivalence identity, UTC analysis windows, validated(0,1)parameters, and the Kaplan–Meier quantile crossing.d459437…closes the Ready-review findings: attempt-local monotonic clocks are separated from logical-request latency; attempts are durably registered before provider invocation and any in-flight cohort member makes the first implementation returnnull; exact equal-tailed Binomial tail inequalities deterministically select order-statistic indices and fail closed for unsupported finite bounds or invalid continuity/tie assumptions.d459437…and does not transfer. Fresh source/package, fuzz, SBOM, CodeQL, Noema, OpenCode, Strix, compatibility, coverage, and queue evidence must be terminal on this exact head before ordinary merge.d459437…; a fresh independent review is still required. No self-approval, gate bypass, or predecessor-check reuse is authorized.RCA and decision boundary
The predecessor design replaced unsupported timeout constants with different decision heuristics: fixed sample floors and retention, estimator switching, a data-selected EVT/POT threshold example, and unmodelled model→provider/profile fallback. ADR 0127 now separates descriptive latency inference from timeout decisions:
nullby default;suggested_timeout_seconds=nullunless a separately reviewed loss/utility model, authoritative standard, or validated experimental rule supplies decision authority.Exact-head repair
Commit
3c60dd764c98100c6971b06f54a4f1ae5bbd71dfrepairs the remaining review findings:docs/library_research.mdrecord for exact Binomial/order-statistic and right-censored survival analysis.statrs,survival,oxicuda-survival,stats-ci, andndarray-stats; selects no new implementation dependency until deterministic conformance, license, maintenance, and security evidence exists.10.2307/2530286, and adds the Wiley DOI for David–Nagaraja.tests/test_timeout_allocator_no_heuristics_contract.py. It only matched prose tokens and could stay GREEN while the statistical semantics regressed. Because this PR has no executable implementation seam, behavioral RED→GREEN contracts belong to the future implementation PR and are enumerated in ADR 0127.The research ledger and ADR explicitly forbid hand-written Kaplan–Meier, Brookmeyer–Crowley, Binomial-distribution, or tail-model code unless a bounded custom-core decision, executable conformance fixtures, provenance, and removal condition are reviewed first.
Verification boundary
Remote re-read at
3c60dd7…confirmed:The prior head's GREEN workflows do not transfer. Required Checks for
3c60dd7…must complete before any merge decision. Currentmainis414f22973658c4ddc3d4320fcf7acd9b4e8ba991; this branch must be integrated without force push or destructive rebase and revalidated on the resulting exact head.No automatic timeout recommendation, heuristic substitute, self-approval, protection bypass, or predecessor-check reuse is authorized.
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null반환 규칙을 문서화했습니다.