feat(analysis): bind independent TDT link-criterion fitting to an analysis-run profile

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -38,6 +38,8 @@ All notable changes to TEPP are documented here. The format follows Keep a Chang
 
 ## [Unreleased]
 
+- **Independent TDT link-criterion analysis-run profile**: cutoff-safe `lineage_criterion_v1` binds `fit_lineage_criterion_posteriors` and refuses date inference from record order (`analysis_engine`). Not a Bayesian sampler and not implemented-main.
+
 - `event_core` adds bounded Allen interval-consistency classification, atomic path-consistency closure, contradiction/resource refusals, and an explicit dependency-error fallback without claiming unrestricted global satisfiability.
 
 - `psychometric_core` recovers the Driver, Oud, and Voelkle (2017, Table 2, p. 12 `MANIFESTTRAITVAR`; §7.1, p. 19; p. 16 `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd`; footnote 4; 2017-era ctsem `summary.ctsemFit.R`; JSS PDF re-opened 2026-08-27T14:20Z from https://www.jstatsoft.org/index.php/jss/article/download/v077i05/1104) scalar standardised manifest-trait variance on current main after `0ce16e8` dropped the pre-consolidation code while research notes already named the map (register items 83–84). Table 2 names `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` `Ψ_τ` the additional time-invariant variance-covariance on the measurement level and sets it `NULL` when there is no manifest trait. Equation 5 writes `Γ ~ N(τ, Ψ)` and names that covariance the manifest traits. Section 7.1 names manifest traits stable individual differences in indicator levels, distinct from process-level `TRAITVAR` `φ_ξ`. Page 16 prints standardised matrices with the suffix `std` when appropriate. The printed example on p. 16 is `discreteDRIFTstd`, not `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd`. Footnote 4 standardises using only the relevant variance, not the total. The relevant variance for that named indicator-level correlation is `MANIFESTTRAITVAR`, not process-level `TRAITVAR` and not residual `MANIFESTVAR` `θ`. The 2017-era source forms `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd` only when `MANIFESTTRAITVAR != 0`, as `solve(sqrt(diag(MANIFESTTRAITVAR) + ridging)) %&% MANIFESTTRAITVAR` when `verbose = TRUE`. OpenMx `%&%` is `t(A) %*% B %*% A`. Unlike `TRAITVARstd`, that formation adds `diag(c(ridging), n.manifest)`. The default `ridging = FALSE` adds 0, not `0.0001`; that ridge is a numerical hack and is not this exact map. The scalar correlation is `ψ / ψ = 1` after strictly positive `MANIFESTTRAITVAR`. Form strictly positive `ψ` first, then `1 / √ψ`, then `(1 / √ψ) ψ (1 / √ψ)`. Unstandardised `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` is defined for a zero trait; standardised `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` is not. Zero `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` skips forming `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd` in the 2017-era source and fails closed here. Indicator-level trait variance is an event-time structural quantity, so a non-event clock fails closed. `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` does not require stable `a < 0`. Distinct positive `ψ` recover the same 1. `trait / trait = 1` is `TRAITVARstd` and recovers the same number and remains a distinct named quantity. `θ` is `MANIFESTVAR` and is measurement error, not this correlation. Meredith (1993) remains unread (web search 2026-08-27T14:20Z: Springer/Cambridge Core paywalled; Unpaywall historically `is_oa: false`; Springer `content/pdf` is an HTML stub). Mislevy (1991, *Psychometrika, 56*, 177–196) remains unread on the same terms (DOI `10.1007/bf02294457`). Still not a Kalman filter, not a matrix `expm`, not ESEM estimation, not DSEM, and not ctsem estimation.

crates/analysis_engine/src/lib.rs

@@ -8,10 +8,14 @@
 //! through [`tepp_api`]. It deliberately does not claim latent-variable or topic
 //! estimation authority; those estimators remain separate scientific crates.
 //! estimation authority; it invokes estimators through their scientific crate
-//! contracts and preserves their artifact meaning.
+//! contracts and preserves their artifact meaning. Independent TDT
+//! link-criterion fitting is invoked through
+//! [`fit_lineage_criterion_posteriors`] and does not infer a date from
+//! record order.
 
 mod case_deletion_refit;
 mod lineage_criterion;
+mod lineage_criterion_artifact;
 mod topic_context_posterior;
 mod topic_lineage_artifact;
 
@@ -46,6 +50,13 @@ pub use lineage_criterion::{
     LineageCriterionFit, LineageCriterionFitError, LineageCriterionObservation,
     fit_lineage_criterion_posteriors,
 };
+/// Independent TDT link-criterion artifact and execution contracts from this engine.
+pub use lineage_criterion_artifact::{
+    LINEAGE_CRITERION_ARTIFACT_BYTE_LIMIT, LINEAGE_CRITERION_ARTIFACT_SCHEMA_VERSION,
+    LINEAGE_CRITERION_MODEL_CONTRACT_VERSION, LINEAGE_CRITERION_OUTPUT_PROFILE,
+    LineageCriterionArtifact, LineageCriterionExecution, LineageCriterionInput,
+    execute_lineage_criterion_run,
+};
 /// Bounded posterior topic-context producer contract and record types.
 pub use topic_context_posterior::{
     TOPIC_CONTEXT_POSTERIOR_BYTE_LIMIT, TOPIC_CONTEXT_POSTERIOR_SCHEMA_VERSION,
@@ -248,6 +259,10 @@ pub enum AnalysisEngineError {
     TopicMeasurement(TopicMeasurementError),
     /// A topic-lineage artifact violated its bounded schema or count invariants.
     InvalidTopicLineageArtifact,
+    /// A lineage-criterion artifact violated its bounded schema or counts.
+    InvalidLineageCriterionArtifact,
+    /// The independent TDT link-criterion fitter refused the observations.
+    LineageCriterionFitFailure,
 }
 
 impl fmt::Display for AnalysisEngineError {
@@ -262,6 +277,8 @@ impl fmt::Display for AnalysisEngineError {
             Self::LimitExceeded => "analysis corpus exceeded its execution bound",
             Self::TopicMeasurement(error) => return error.fmt(formatter),
             Self::InvalidTopicLineageArtifact => "invalid topic lineage artifact",
+            Self::InvalidLineageCriterionArtifact => "invalid lineage-criterion artifact",
+            Self::LineageCriterionFitFailure => "lineage-criterion fitter refused the observations",
         };
         formatter.write_str(message)
     }
@@ -384,7 +401,7 @@ fn add_membership_count(sum: u64, membership_count: u32) -> Result<u64, Analysis
 }
 
 /// Require the accepted receipt to carry the request's idempotency identity.
-fn require_receipt_identity(
+pub(crate) fn require_receipt_identity(
     request: &AnalysisRunRequest,
     accepted: &AnalysisRunAccepted,
 ) -> Result<(), AnalysisEngineError> {
@@ -394,15 +411,15 @@ fn require_receipt_identity(
     Ok(())
 }
 
-fn format_digest(digest: impl AsRef<[u8]>) -> String {
+pub(crate) fn format_digest(digest: impl AsRef<[u8]>) -> String {
     let mut output = String::with_capacity(digest.as_ref().len() * 2);
     for byte in digest.as_ref() {
         let _ = write!(output, "{byte:02x}");
     }
     output
 }
 
-fn valid_identifier(value: &str) -> bool {
+pub(crate) fn valid_identifier(value: &str) -> bool {
     !value.trim().is_empty()
         && value.len() <= MAX_ANALYSIS_IDENTIFIER_BYTES
         && !value.chars().any(char::is_control)
@@ -681,6 +698,14 @@ mod tests {
                 AnalysisEngineError::InvalidTopicLineageArtifact,
                 "invalid topic lineage artifact",
             ),
+            (
+                AnalysisEngineError::InvalidLineageCriterionArtifact,
+                "invalid lineage-criterion artifact",
+            ),
+            (
+                AnalysisEngineError::LineageCriterionFitFailure,
+                "lineage-criterion fitter refused the observations",
+            ),
         ];
         for (error, message) in messages {
             assert_eq!(error.to_string(), message);