feat(reports): leftover expected on pair segments (v2.36.0)

AGENTS.md

@@ -273,7 +273,7 @@ stops startup instead of leaving a healthy-looking partial schema, and
 application code must not compensate for a missing table.
 
 Period leftover pairs (ADR 0017 / 0018 / 0048 / 0049 / 0119 / 0158 / 0162 /
-0163 / 0164 / 0182 / 0185 / 0201 / 0233 / 0266 / 0267 / 0268 / 0269 / 0270 / 0271 / 0272 / 0273 / 0274 / 0275) are computed in `lineageweave/leftover_pairs.py` from the
+0163 / 0164 / 0182 / 0185 / 0201 / 0233 / 0266 / 0267 / 0268 / 0269 / 0270 / 0271 / 0272 / 0273 / 0274 / 0275 / 0276 / 0277 / 0278 / 0279) are computed in `lineageweave/leftover_pairs.py` from the
 residual after a real GRM/GPCM score, never invented. Distances are
 Euclidean on the two-dimensional Gabriel leftover map; missing cells stay
 out of the factorization. Closest and farthest post–criterion pairs
@@ -317,8 +317,26 @@ the pair-row `U²/R²` badge matches the graphic; a missing or non-finite
 segments with persisted leftover-map cross share `x` so
 the pair-row `2R̂U/R²` badge matches the graphic; a missing or non-finite
 `x` omits that leftover-map cross share caption and does not invent
-`x` from `R̂`, `U`, and `R` or from plotted coordinates. When `R`, `R̂`, `U`, `x`,
-`s`, and `e` are finite, `e + s + x = 1`. When coordinates,
+`x` from `R̂`, `U`, and `R` or from plotted coordinates. ADR 0276 captions leftover-map pair
+segments with persisted leftover-map unexplained leftover `U` so
+the pair-row `U` badge matches the graphic; a missing or non-finite
+`U` omits that unexplained leftover caption and does not invent
+`U` from `R` and `R̂` or from plotted coordinates. ADR 0277 captions leftover-map pair
+segments with persisted leftover residual `R` so the pair-row residual
+badge matches the graphic; a missing or non-finite `R` omits that leftover
+residual caption and does not invent `R` from `Y` and `E`, from `U` and
+`R̂`, or from plotted coordinates. ADR 0278 captions leftover-map pair
+segments with persisted leftover observed `Y` so the pair-row `Y` badge
+matches the graphic; a missing or non-finite `Y` omits that leftover
+observed caption and does not invent `Y` from `R` and `E` or from plotted
+coordinates. ADR 0279 captions leftover-map pair
+segments with persisted leftover expected `E` so the pair-row `E` badge
+matches the graphic; a missing or non-finite `E` omits that leftover
+expected caption and does not invent `E` from `Y` and `R` or from plotted
+coordinates. When `R`, `R̂`, `U`, `x`,
+`s`, and `e` are finite, `e + s + x = 1`. When `Y`, `E`, and `R` are
+finite, `Y − E = R`. When `R`, `R̂`, and `U` are
+finite, `U + R̂ = R`. When coordinates,
 reconstruction, and distance are finite, `R̂ = ξ · ζ` and
 `d = ‖ξ − ζ‖`. The pairs sit above the member
 list so a click opens that post with the leftover criterion current

ARCHITECTURE.md

@@ -637,7 +637,7 @@ information at the group's mean θ (Lord, 1980 max-info CAT). Rankings
 persist to `report_item_information`. After those IRT main effects,
 residual SVD leftover pairs on two Gabriel axes (Jeon et al., 2021;
 ADR 0017 / 0048 / 0049 / 0119 / 0148 / 0158 / 0162 / 0163 / 0164 / 0168 /
-0182 / 0185 / 0201 / 0233 / 0266 / 0267 / 0268 / 0269 / 0270 / 0271 / 0272 / 0273 / 0274 / 0275) persist to `report_leftover_pair` with signed residual `R`,
+0182 / 0185 / 0201 / 0233 / 0266 / 0267 / 0268 / 0269 / 0270 / 0271 / 0272 / 0273 / 0274 / 0275 / 0276 / 0277 / 0278 / 0279) persist to `report_leftover_pair` with signed residual `R`,
 observed `Y`, expected `E[Y|θ, item]`, full leftover-map rank, unexplained
 leftover, ADR 0201 reconstruction evidence, ADR 0185 cross-share evidence,
 ADR 0233 unexplained leftover share `s`, ADR 0266 explained leftover
@@ -653,7 +653,11 @@ captions leftover-map pair segments with persisted leftover-map
 explained leftover share `e`. ADR 0274 captions leftover-map pair
 segments with persisted leftover-map unexplained leftover share `s`.
 ADR 0275 captions leftover-map pair segments with persisted leftover-map
-cross share `x`. Click a post marker or a pair button
+cross share `x`. ADR 0276 captions leftover-map pair segments with persisted leftover-map
+unexplained leftover `U`. ADR 0277 captions leftover-map pair segments with persisted leftover
+residual `R`. ADR 0278 captions leftover-map pair segments with persisted leftover
+observed `Y`. ADR 0279 captions leftover-map pair segments with persisted leftover
+expected `E`. Click a post marker or a pair button
 opens that post. Those ADRs are the normative mathematical, storage, and
 display contracts. Leftover-map axis share
 (Gabriel inertia of residual SVD axes 1 and 2; ADR 0148) persists to

CHANGELOG.d/2.33.0-leftover-map-segment-unexplained-leftover.md

@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+## 2.33.0 — Leftover-map unexplained leftover on graphic-display pair segments
+
+- Caption leftover-map graphic-display pair segments with persisted
+  leftover-map unexplained leftover `U = R − R̂` (ADR 0276). After
+  `make seed`, closest and farthest leftover pairs sit above the member
+  list with the Gabriel biplot of already-named coordinates, leftover-map
+  axis share when finite, axis ticks that match `ξ (x, y) ζ (x, y)` on
+  the pair row, pair segments that match `d` on the pair row, pair
+  segments that match `R̂` on the pair row, pair segments that match
+  `R̂²/R²` on the pair row, pair segments that match `U²/R²` on the
+  pair row, pair segments that match `2R̂U/R²` on the pair row, and
+  pair segments that match `U` on the pair row; click a post marker or
+  a pair button opens that post. A missing or non-finite `U` omits that
+  unexplained leftover caption. A finite negative leftover is shown;
+  do not clamp to nonnegative. Do not invent `U` from `R` and `R̂` or
+  from plotted coordinates. Never invent a leftover score. Never invent
+  a theta. No new columns.

CHANGELOG.d/2.34.0-leftover-map-segment-residual.md

@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+## 2.34.0 — Leftover residual on graphic-display pair segments
+
+- Caption leftover-map graphic-display pair segments with persisted
+  leftover residual `R = Y − E[Y|θ, item]` (ADR 0277). After
+  `make seed`, closest and farthest leftover pairs sit above the member
+  list with the Gabriel biplot of already-named coordinates, leftover-map
+  axis share when finite, axis ticks that match `ξ (x, y) ζ (x, y)` on
+  the pair row, pair segments that match `d` on the pair row, pair
+  segments that match `R̂` on the pair row, pair segments that match
+  `R̂²/R²` on the pair row, pair segments that match `U²/R²` on the
+  pair row, pair segments that match `2R̂U/R²` on the pair row, pair
+  segments that match `U` on the pair row, and pair segments that match
+  `R` on the pair row; click a post marker or a pair button opens that
+  post. A missing or non-finite `R` omits that leftover residual caption.
+  A finite negative leftover is shown; do not clamp to nonnegative. Do
+  not invent `R` from `Y` and `E`, from `U` and `R̂`, or from plotted
+  coordinates. Never invent a leftover score. Never invent a theta. No
+  new columns.

CHANGELOG.d/2.35.0-leftover-map-segment-observed.md

@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+## 2.35.0 — Leftover observed Y on graphic-display pair segments
+
+- Caption leftover-map graphic-display pair segments with persisted
+  leftover observed `Y` (ADR 0278). After `make seed`, closest and
+  farthest leftover pairs sit above the member list with the Gabriel
+  biplot of already-named coordinates, leftover-map axis share when
+  finite, axis ticks that match `ξ (x, y) ζ (x, y)` on the pair row,
+  pair segments that match `d` on the pair row, pair segments that
+  match `R̂` on the pair row, pair segments that match `R̂²/R²` on
+  the pair row, pair segments that match `U²/R²` on the pair row,
+  pair segments that match `2R̂U/R²` on the pair row, pair segments
+  that match `U` on the pair row, pair segments that match `R` on the
+  pair row, and pair segments that match `Y` on the pair row; click a
+  post marker or a pair button opens that post. A missing or
+  non-finite `Y` omits that leftover observed caption. A finite
+  negative observed is shown; do not clamp to nonnegative. Do not
+  invent `Y` from `R` and `E` or from plotted coordinates. Never invent
+  a leftover score. Never invent a theta. No new columns.

CHANGELOG.d/2.36.0-leftover-map-segment-expected.md

@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+## 2.36.0 — Leftover expected E on graphic-display pair segments
+
+- Caption leftover-map graphic-display pair segments with persisted
+  leftover expected `E[Y|θ, item]` (ADR 0279). After `make seed`, closest
+  and farthest leftover pairs sit above the member list with the Gabriel
+  biplot of already-named coordinates, leftover-map axis share when
+  finite, axis ticks that match `ξ (x, y) ζ (x, y)` on the pair row,
+  pair segments that match `d` on the pair row, pair segments that
+  match `R̂` on the pair row, pair segments that match `R̂²/R²` on
+  the pair row, pair segments that match `U²/R²` on the pair row,
+  pair segments that match `2R̂U/R²` on the pair row, pair segments
+  that match `U` on the pair row, pair segments that match `R` on the
+  pair row, pair segments that match `Y` on the pair row, and pair
+  segments that match `E` on the pair row; click a post marker or a
+  pair button opens that post. A missing or non-finite `E` omits that
+  leftover expected caption. A finite negative expected is shown; do
+  not clamp to nonnegative. Do not invent `E` from `Y` and `R` or from
+  plotted coordinates. Never invent a leftover score. Never invent a
+  theta. No new columns.

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -8,6 +8,75 @@ All notable changes to this project are documented here. Format follows
 
 ### Added
 
+- Period leftover pairs now caption leftover-map graphic-display pair
+  segments with persisted leftover expected `E[Y|θ, item]` (ADR 0279 /
+  v2.36.0). After `make seed`, closest and farthest leftover pairs sit
+  above the member list with the Gabriel biplot of already-named
+  coordinates, leftover-map axis share when finite, axis ticks that
+  match `ξ (x, y) ζ (x, y)` on the pair row, pair segments that match
+  `d` on the pair row, pair segments that match `R̂` on the pair row,
+  pair segments that match `R̂²/R²` on the pair row, pair segments that
+  match `U²/R²` on the pair row, pair segments that match `2R̂U/R²` on
+  the pair row, pair segments that match `U` on the pair row, pair
+  segments that match `R` on the pair row, pair segments that match `Y`
+  on the pair row, and pair segments that match `E` on the pair row;
+  click a post marker or a pair button opens that post. A missing or
+  non-finite `E` omits that leftover expected caption. A finite
+  negative expected is shown; do not clamp to nonnegative. Do not
+  invent `E` from `Y` and `R` or from plotted coordinates. Never invent
+  a leftover score or a theta. No new columns.
+
+- Period leftover pairs now caption leftover-map graphic-display pair
+  segments with persisted leftover observed `Y` (ADR 0278 / v2.35.0).
+  After `make seed`, closest and farthest leftover pairs sit above the
+  member list with the Gabriel biplot of already-named coordinates,
+  leftover-map axis share when finite, axis ticks that match
+  `ξ (x, y) ζ (x, y)` on the pair row, pair segments that match `d` on
+  the pair row, pair segments that match `R̂` on the pair row, pair
+  segments that match `R̂²/R²` on the pair row, pair segments that
+  match `U²/R²` on the pair row, pair segments that match `2R̂U/R²` on
+  the pair row, pair segments that match `U` on the pair row, pair
+  segments that match `R` on the pair row, and pair segments that match
+  `Y` on the pair row; click a post marker or a pair button opens that
+  post. A missing or non-finite `Y` omits that leftover observed
+  caption. A finite negative observed is shown; do not clamp to
+  nonnegative. Do not invent `Y` from `R` and `E` or from plotted
+  coordinates. Never invent a leftover score or a theta. No new columns.
+
+- Period leftover pairs now caption leftover-map graphic-display pair
+  segments with persisted leftover residual `R = Y − E[Y|θ, item]`
+  (ADR 0277 / v2.34.0). After `make seed`, closest and farthest leftover
+  pairs sit above the member list with the Gabriel biplot of
+  already-named coordinates, leftover-map axis share when finite, axis
+  ticks that match `ξ (x, y) ζ (x, y)` on the pair row, pair segments
+  that match `d` on the pair row, pair segments that match `R̂` on the
+  pair row, pair segments that match `R̂²/R²` on the pair row, pair
+  segments that match `U²/R²` on the pair row, pair segments that match
+  `2R̂U/R²` on the pair row, pair segments that match `U` on the pair
+  row, and pair segments that match `R` on the pair row; click a post
+  marker or a pair button opens that post. A missing or non-finite `R`
+  omits that leftover residual caption. A finite negative leftover is
+  shown; do not clamp to nonnegative. Do not invent `R` from `Y` and
+  `E`, from `U` and `R̂`, or from plotted coordinates. Never invent a
+  leftover score or a theta. No new columns.
+
+- Period leftover pairs now caption leftover-map graphic-display pair
+  segments with persisted leftover-map unexplained leftover
+  `U = R − R̂` (ADR 0276 / v2.33.0). After `make seed`, closest and
+  farthest leftover pairs sit above the member list with the Gabriel
+  biplot of already-named coordinates, leftover-map axis share when
+  finite, axis ticks that match `ξ (x, y) ζ (x, y)` on the pair row,
+  pair segments that match `d` on the pair row, pair segments that
+  match `R̂` on the pair row, pair segments that match `R̂²/R²` on
+  the pair row, pair segments that match `U²/R²` on the pair row,
+  pair segments that match `2R̂U/R²` on the pair row, and pair
+  segments that match `U` on the pair row; click a post marker or a
+  pair button opens that post. A missing or non-finite `U` omits that
+  unexplained leftover caption. A finite negative leftover is shown;
+  do not clamp to nonnegative. Do not invent `U` from `R` and `R̂` or
+  from plotted coordinates. Never invent a leftover score or a theta.
+  No new columns.
+
 - Period leftover pairs now caption leftover-map graphic-display pair
   segments with persisted leftover-map cross share
   `x = 2 R̂ U / R²` (ADR 0275 / v2.32.0). After `make seed`, closest and

CLAUDE.md

@@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ cutoff. Global Ask optional `knowledge_cutoff` uses the same cover
 
 Create/start endpoint rules (ADR 0017 / 0021), tie-vs-miss similarity
 (ADR 0026), R&R catalog ids (ADR 0019 / 0027), leftover pairs
-(ADR 0048–0164 / 0182 / 0185 / 0201 / 0233 / 0266 / 0267 / 0268 / 0269 / 0270 / 0271 / 0272 / 0273 / 0274 / 0275), occupational construct catalog search
+(ADR 0048–0164 / 0182 / 0185 / 0201 / 0233 / 0266 / 0267 / 0268 / 0269 / 0270 / 0271 / 0272 / 0273 / 0274 / 0275 / 0276 / 0277 / 0278 / 0279), occupational construct catalog search
 (ADR 0257), the text-channel embedding swap and cosine
 clamp (ADR 0190), per-edge channel-score persistence (ADR 0195),
 token-backed status notices (ADR 0220),

docs/adr/0048-persist-lsirm-leftover-pairs.md

@@ -18,7 +18,11 @@
 [ADR 0272](0272-leftover-map-segment-reconstruction.md) (leftover-map reconstruction on pair segments);
 [ADR 0273](0273-leftover-map-segment-explained-share.md) (leftover-map explained leftover share on pair segments);
 [ADR 0274](0274-leftover-map-segment-unexplained-share.md) (leftover-map unexplained leftover share on pair segments);
-[ADR 0275](0275-leftover-map-segment-cross-share.md) (leftover-map cross share on pair segments)
+[ADR 0275](0275-leftover-map-segment-cross-share.md) (leftover-map cross share on pair segments);
+[ADR 0276](0276-leftover-map-segment-unexplained-leftover.md) (leftover-map unexplained leftover on pair segments);
+[ADR 0277](0277-leftover-map-segment-residual.md) (leftover residual on pair segments);
+[ADR 0278](0278-leftover-map-segment-observed.md) (leftover observed Y on pair segments);
+[ADR 0279](0279-leftover-map-segment-expected.md) (leftover expected E on pair segments)
 
 ## Context
 
@@ -84,7 +88,13 @@ leftover-map pair segments with persisted leftover-map explained leftover
 share `e`; it adds no columns. ADR 0274 captions leftover-map pair
 segments with persisted leftover-map unexplained leftover share `s`; it
 adds no columns. ADR 0275 captions leftover-map pair segments with
-persisted leftover-map cross share `x`; it adds no columns.
+persisted leftover-map cross share `x`; it adds no columns. ADR 0276
+captions leftover-map pair segments with persisted leftover-map
+unexplained leftover `U`; it adds no columns. ADR 0277 captions leftover-map
+pair segments with persisted leftover residual `R`; it adds no columns.
+ADR 0278 captions leftover-map pair segments with persisted leftover
+observed `Y`; it adds no columns. ADR 0279 captions leftover-map pair
+segments with persisted leftover expected `E`; it adds no columns.
 
 Cascade the rows with `report_period_score`. A leftover post must
 also be a `report_member_score` row, and the leftover criterion

docs/adr/0049-leftover-pair-report-ui.md

@@ -19,7 +19,11 @@
 [ADR 0272](0272-leftover-map-segment-reconstruction.md) (leftover-map reconstruction on pair segments);
 [ADR 0273](0273-leftover-map-segment-explained-share.md) (leftover-map explained leftover share on pair segments);
 [ADR 0274](0274-leftover-map-segment-unexplained-share.md) (leftover-map unexplained leftover share on pair segments);
-[ADR 0275](0275-leftover-map-segment-cross-share.md) (leftover-map cross share on pair segments)
+[ADR 0275](0275-leftover-map-segment-cross-share.md) (leftover-map cross share on pair segments);
+[ADR 0276](0276-leftover-map-segment-unexplained-leftover.md) (leftover-map unexplained leftover on pair segments);
+[ADR 0277](0277-leftover-map-segment-residual.md) (leftover residual on pair segments);
+[ADR 0278](0278-leftover-map-segment-observed.md) (leftover observed Y on pair segments);
+[ADR 0279](0279-leftover-map-segment-expected.md) (leftover expected E on pair segments)
 
 ## Context
 
@@ -51,7 +55,11 @@ distance `d` (ADR 0271). Pair segments name persisted leftover-map
 reconstruction `R̂` (ADR 0272). Pair segments name persisted leftover-map
 explained leftover share `e` (ADR 0273). Pair segments name persisted leftover-map
 unexplained leftover share `s` (ADR 0274). Pair segments name persisted leftover-map
-cross share `x` (ADR 0275). The pair renders every available finite measurement.
+cross share `x` (ADR 0275). Pair segments name persisted leftover-map
+unexplained leftover `U` (ADR 0276). Pair segments name persisted leftover
+residual `R` (ADR 0277). Pair segments name persisted leftover observed
+`Y` (ADR 0278). Pair segments name persisted leftover expected
+`E` (ADR 0279). The pair renders every available finite measurement.
 The next action uses the first available value in the priority below; no
 amendment hides another badge, rank 0
 explicitly names no leftover structure, and unexplained leftover names
@@ -92,6 +100,14 @@ Leftover-map unexplained leftover share on pair segments is
 [ADR 0274](0274-leftover-map-segment-unexplained-share.md).
 Leftover-map cross share on pair segments is
 [ADR 0275](0275-leftover-map-segment-cross-share.md).
+Leftover-map unexplained leftover on pair segments is
+[ADR 0276](0276-leftover-map-segment-unexplained-leftover.md).
+Leftover residual on pair segments is
+[ADR 0277](0277-leftover-map-segment-residual.md).
+Leftover observed Y on pair segments is
+[ADR 0278](0278-leftover-map-segment-observed.md).
+Leftover expected E on pair segments is
+[ADR 0279](0279-leftover-map-segment-expected.md).
 
 After `make seed`, closest and farthest leftover pairs sit above the
 member list. Click a pair to open that post with the leftover

docs/adr/0182-leftover-map-unexplained.md

@@ -4,7 +4,9 @@
 **Date:** 2026-08-24
 
 **Amended by:** [ADR 0201](0201-leftover-map-reconstruction.md)
-(two-axis reconstruction R̂)
+(two-axis reconstruction R̂);
+[ADR 0276](0276-leftover-map-segment-unexplained-leftover.md)
+(leftover-map unexplained leftover on graphic-display pair segments)
 
 Amends [ADR 0048](0048-persist-lsirm-leftover-pairs.md) and
 [ADR 0049](0049-leftover-pair-report-ui.md).
@@ -73,7 +75,9 @@ score. Do not invent a theta.
 `GET /api/reports/{grouping}/{period}` returns
 `leftover_map_unexplained`. After `make seed`, closest and farthest
 leftover pairs sit above the member list with named `U` next to `d`;
-click opens that post. Hidden posts stay hidden.
+click opens that post. Hidden posts stay hidden. ADR 0276
+captions leftover-map graphic-display pair segments with the same
+persisted leftover-map unexplained leftover; it adds no columns.
 
 ## Related