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[evolve] Suspend/demote PATTERN_HUNT posture — 23 consecutive 0-yield runs, plateau confirmed empirically #178

@verkyyi

Description

@verkyyi

Source

14-day usage_log.md + research_log.md analysis (2026-04-18 CLI session).

Pattern

Across all 4 evolve postures, yield is zero issues in the window:

Posture Runs Issues created Cost $/issue
PATTERN_HUNT 5 0 $8.43
HORIZON_SCAN 4 0 $7.72
PIPELINE_WATCH 6 0 $11.76
SYNTHESIS 6 0 $12.89

project_state.md reports "23 consecutive PATTERN_HUNT 0-yield" — the research plateau the scaffold keeps self-reporting is empirically real: 152 research_log entries over the window produced 7 actionable issues (4.6% yield), and most of those came from pipeline-health / cost-trend sources, not posture research.

Why suspend PATTERN_HUNT specifically

PATTERN_HUNT is the most expensive posture per run ($1.69 avg) and has produced nothing for 23 consecutive runs. It's designed for cross-ecosystem pattern discovery, which is structurally low-frequency — after 14 days of scanning the same ecosystems, the priors are exhausted until an external event (new project, new Anthropic feature) creates a signal.

HORIZON_SCAN and SYNTHESIS also 0-yield but they do produce observation entries that feed future PIPELINE_WATCH decisions. PATTERN_HUNT entries rarely do.

Proposed change

Modify evolve.yml posture rotation:

  1. Drop PATTERN_HUNT from cron rotation — remove from choose posture logic
  2. Re-enable manually via workflow_dispatch with a posture=PATTERN_HUNT input when new ecosystem signals warrant it (e.g. Anthropic releases new SDK, new curated-list source is discovered)
  3. Redistribute PATTERN_HUNT's slots: PIPELINE_WATCH +2, SYNTHESIS +1, HORIZON_SCAN +1 per rotation cycle

Alternatively (lower risk): gate PATTERN_HUNT on a consecutive-0-yield counter — if the counter exceeds 15, skip the posture for that run and emit a log line.

Acceptance criteria

  • evolve.yml posture rotation no longer schedules PATTERN_HUNT by default
  • Manual workflow_dispatch override preserved
  • Counter reset logic added (so if PATTERN_HUNT runs manually and yields, cadence can be restored)
  • After 1 week: evolve cost drops ~20% from avg $1.94/run

Risk

Low — worst case we miss a pattern discovery for a week. The missed-pattern cost over 14d is demonstrably zero.

Related


Surfaced from 14-day retrospective CLI session 2026-04-18.

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    evolve-findingIssue created by evolve.ymllikely-agent-fixableWatcher determined this pipeline issue can be fixed by the coder agent

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