diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index d5a617e..23148fc 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -15,18 +15,14 @@ and evaluation reports below. ## Highlights -- **Can a public-data model beat Vegas? No, and the test says how close it came.** A model - built only from Retrosheet and MLB StatsAPI was frozen, then scored once on 6,451 games from - 2023 to 2025. Its log loss trails the no-vig closing line by 0.0036 per game (0.0018, borderline, - once 12 dates with late-scraped "closing" lines are dropped). Its bets at the opening line moved - toward the close by about 2 probability points, but the return cannot be told apart from zero. - The rules for every verdict were written down before the test data was scored. - [Read the report](research/r/mlb/REPORT.md). - **Coaches use these tools every week.** USD's staff uses the hitter and pitcher apps, the transfer-portal board and the per-game PDF reports ([samples](docs/samples/README.md)). - **One method at two levels.** Stuff+ and whiff models are trained on NCAA TrackMan. The xSLG and swing-decision models are trained on MLB Statcast and applied to NCAA pitches in the hitter app ([model index](models/README.md)). +- **A dbt/DuckDB warehouse runs from committed fixtures with no credentials.** It rebuilds the + transform layer as staged, tested models. The SQLite pipeline still runs the operational + workflow ([try it](#try-the-sample-dbt-warehouse)). - **Designed around a 2FA wall.** The NCAA portal login needs a coach's 2FA code every time, so about 90 percent of the portal workflow runs from public sources with no login at all ([design](docs/transfer-portal-pipeline.md)). @@ -76,6 +72,14 @@ The MLB pipelines build player and team estimates from public play-by-play and g combine them into game forecasts, and evaluate them across seasons. The simulator also models how a game unfolds, including the starter's exit and which reliever is likely to enter. +**Can a public-data model beat Vegas? No, and the test says how close it came.** A model +built only from Retrosheet and MLB StatsAPI was frozen, then scored once on 6,451 games from +2023 to 2025. Its log loss trails the no-vig closing line by 0.0036 per game (0.0018, borderline, +once 12 dates with late-scraped "closing" lines are dropped). Its bets at the opening line moved +toward the close by about 2 probability points, but the return cannot be told apart from zero. +The rules for every verdict were written down before the test data was scored. +[Read the report](research/r/mlb/REPORT.md). + | Work | What it provides | Methods and results | |---|---|---| | Run expectancy and recency | Rolling hitter, starter, bullpen, and team estimates; decay windows, offseason carry, shrinkage, and recent-form experiments | [Recency study](research/r/mlb/RECENCY-PLAN.md) and [R pipeline](research/r/README.md) |