From 5bcb273fb894d17a0847b614cdb9181023fb2921 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: kylekkkk Date: Wed, 29 Apr 2026 15:13:44 +0800 Subject: [PATCH] docs: add ict smc english and traditional chinese tutorials --- .../ict-smc/en/Chapter 00. Introduction.md | 41 ++++ .../en/Chapter 01. Market Structure.md | 58 +++++ .../ict-smc/en/Chapter 02. Liquidity.md | 109 ++++++++++ .../ict-smc/en/Chapter 03. Imbalance.md | 97 +++++++++ .../en/Chapter 04. Supply and Demand.md | 117 ++++++++++ ... 05. Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm.md | 129 +++++++++++ .../ict-smc/en/Chapter 06. Dealing Range.md | 92 ++++++++ .../Chapter 07. Advanced Market Structure.md | 201 ++++++++++++++++++ .../tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 08. Entry.md | 119 +++++++++++ ...225\350\250\200\357\275\234Inroduction.md" | 41 ++++ ...46\247\213\357\275\234Market Structure.md" | 58 +++++ ...3\225\346\200\247\357\275\234Liquidity.md" | 109 ++++++++++ ...4\261\350\241\241\357\275\234Imbalance.md" | 97 +++++++++ ...6\261\202\357\275\234Supply and Demand.md" | 117 ++++++++++ ...\234Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm.md" | 129 +++++++++++ ...0\351\226\223\357\275\234Dealing Range.md" | 92 ++++++++ ...3\357\275\234Advanced Market Structure.md" | 200 +++++++++++++++++ ...1\200\262\345\240\264\357\275\234Entry.md" | 119 +++++++++++ 18 files changed, 1925 insertions(+) create mode 100644 content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 00. Introduction.md create mode 100644 content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 01. Market Structure.md create mode 100644 content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 02. Liquidity.md create mode 100644 content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 03. Imbalance.md create mode 100644 content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 04. 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Introduction.md b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 00. Introduction.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f30916d --- /dev/null +++ b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 00. Introduction.md @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +# Introduction + +## Introduction + +I am [@ronload](https://x.com/ron1oad), co-founder of the Kaiyn Capital community. As of August 1, 2024, I have been trading with the ICT/SMC framework for roughly half a year. Before that, my trading was mainly based on traditional Price Action. Kaiyn Capital has been operating for about a year, and I believe many people in the group have already seen my trading performance, so I will not spend too much time on that here. + +The purpose of this tutorial is to help people who are interested in ICT/SMC learn the system in a structured way and actually understand it. Most free and paid courses in the Chinese-speaking trading space only explain these ideas at a surface level. As a result, many beginners start trading without a clear understanding of what they are doing. A complete and logically consistent trading framework cannot be explained in a few words, especially when it is derived from price action. ICT/SMC is actually a branch of price action theory. + +If you plan to use this tutorial to learn ICT/SMC and start your trading journey around it, **please stick with it until the end**. Like many trading frameworks, ICT/SMC is a complete and logically consistent system. Many early concepts need to be expanded by later material, and later material depends on the early concepts to make sense. If you only learn basic concepts such as FVG, OB, or some standardized entry models, then rashly put your capital into the real market, you will miss the entire point of this tutorial. + +Finally, if you do finish the entire tutorial, make sure you combine the framework with proper position sizing and risk management when trading live. Without position sizing, every trading theory is just talk on paper. Remember: a 50% drawdown requires a 100% gain just to recover. + +If you run into questions while learning, feel free to join the Kaiyn Capital community and ask: + +X / Twitter: https://x.com/kaiyncapital + +Telegram community: https://t.me/kaiyncapital + +## ICT/SMC Core Axiom + +ICT/SMC is a trading framework proposed by The Inner Circle Trader. It is built on the following axiom: + +- Price movement does not depend on support and resistance. So-called support and resistance are only market illusions. Every price movement in the market is controlled behind the scenes by an invisible hand known as the ***Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA)***. + +- Smart Money in the market, such as banks and financial institutions, controls price through IPDA in order to extract liquidity from speculative money, or retail traders. + +- Smart Money holds large amounts of inventory and can easily guide price. However, large capital needs a large amount of opposing orders to fill. For that reason, IPDA guides price toward areas where large pools of orders exist. These areas usually include: + 1. Retail stop-loss order pools. These areas are called ***Liquidity***. + 2. Areas where Smart Money has placed orders but not yet been filled. These areas are called ***Imbalances***. + + Price only moves toward liquidity and imbalances. + +- If we want to profit in the market, we should ***follow Smart Money's footsteps*** instead of copying retail trading behavior. + +- The relationship between price and time is extremely important during the trading day. + +- ICT/SMC can be applied to any market with sufficient liquidity, which means you probably do not want to use this framework on extremely illiquid micro-cap tokens. + +These are the background axiom you need before learning ICT/SMC. + +> These axiom are important and will come up repeatedly as we explain the concepts that follow. In my view, however, ICT/SMC is only one of many trading frameworks. It is simply one way to explain the market. In reality, every trading theory explains the market through its own logic, while I personally believe that **the market itself is not truly explainable**. The so-called algorithm may not even exist. Do not believe everything just because it is written down. You can use these axiom to understand ICT/SMC, but you do not have to use them to explain the entire market, and you definitely **should not use them to play down other trading frameworks**. Remember that ICT/SMC is only one branch of price action. There is no need to over-deify it. Any framework that helps you make money is a good framework. diff --git a/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 01. Market Structure.md b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 01. Market Structure.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..544df99 --- /dev/null +++ b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 01. Market Structure.md @@ -0,0 +1,58 @@ +# Market Structure + +Market Structure is fundamental method for determining the direction of price movements. By identifying market structure correctly, we can avoid going against the market trend and also help us seize opportunities in the early stages of a market reversal. + + + +## Bullish Market Structure + +A bullish market structure consists of **higher highs (HH)** and **higher lows (HL)**. Price keeps breaking upward, showing that it has a intention to deliver higher. + + + +![Bullish Market Structure](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/01.%20Market%20Structure/Bullish%20Market%20Structure.png) + +- The market is structured in an uptrend. +- Price creates a series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). +- Highs keep getting broken, while lows keep getting lifted. +- This means buyers are in control, demand is strong, and price continues to rise. +- When the market is in a bullish market structure, we should look for long opportunities that follow the direction of upward price delivery. + + + +## Bearish Market Structure + +A bearish market structure consists of **lower highs (LH)** and **lower lows (LL)**. Price keeps breaking downward, showing that it has a willingness to deliver lower. + +![Bearish Market Structure](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/01.%20Market%20Structure/Bearish%20Market%20Structure.png) + +- The market is structured in a downtrend. +- Price creates a series of lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL). +- Lows keep getting broken, while highs keep getting pushed lower. +- This means sellers are in control, supply is strong, and demand is weakening, which leads to a continued decline in price. +- When the market is in a bearish market structure, we should look for short opportunities that follow the direction of downward price delivery. + + + +## Market Structure Break + +When a swing high or swing low is broken, we call it a **Market Structure Break (MSB)**. This signals **continuation** in price delivery. + +> Also known as: Break of Structure / BOS + +![Market Structure Break](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/01.%20Market%20Structure/Market%20Structure%20Break.png) + + + +## Market Structure Shift + +When "the high before the lowest low is broken" or "the low before the highest high is broken," we call it a **Market Structure Shift (MSS)**. This signals a **change** in the direction of price delivery. + +> Also known as: Change of Character / CHOCH + +![Market Structure Shift](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/01.%20Market%20Structure/Market%20Structure%20Shift.png) + +- A high-quality MSS should appear together with a Liquidity Sweep and Displacement, while also creating an Imbalance. These concepts will be explained in later chapters. + +- MSS can also be understood as a special form of MSB. +- MSS is the typical structure ICT/SMC uses to identify trend reversals. diff --git a/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 02. Liquidity.md b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 02. Liquidity.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f4a6b19 --- /dev/null +++ b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 02. Liquidity.md @@ -0,0 +1,109 @@ +# Liquidity + +> When introducing ICT/SMC, we mentioned liquidity. Price only move in response to liquidity and imbalance areas. In this chapter, we will take a deeper look at liquidity. + + + +Institutional funds needs a large amount of order pairing when entering the market, so not every price on the chart can be considered as their entry cost. Institutions rely on a large amount of liquidity to enter positions. The following locations are where liquidity may exist: + +- Swing highs / swing lows +- Equal highs (EQH) / equal lows (EQL) + + + +## Identifying Liquidity + +### Buyside Liquidity (BSL) + +- When a clear high is broken, aggressive speculative traders may assume that price is about to leave the range and begin a significant upward move. +- When that breakout happens, a large number of buy orders come in, and short stop-losses are triggered as buy-to-cover orders. This provides the liquidity Smart Money needs for Order Pairing. +- Smart Money exchanges inventory with speculative traders at this area, using their buy orders to sell into and complete short positioning. +- We call these breakout-buy orders from speculative traders ***Buyside Liquidity (BSL)***. + + + +### Sellside Liquidity (SSL) + +- When a clear low is broken, aggressive speculative traders may assume that price is about to leave the range and begin a strong selloff. +- When that breakdown happens, a large number of sell orders come in, and long stop-losses are triggered as sell-to-close orders. This provides the liquidity Smart Money needs for Order Pairing. +- Smart Money exchanges inventory with speculative traders at this area, using their sell orders to buy into and complete long positioning. +- We call these breakdown-short orders from speculative traders ***Sellside Liquidity (SSL)***. + + + +### Swing High / Swing Low + +- A Swing High is a clear high on the chart. +- This is usually where speculative traders place stop-losses, so liquidity exists there. +- When a clear Swing High is broken, we can watch whether price respects the BSL at that high. +- When a clear Swing Low is broken, we can watch whether price respects the SSL at that low. +- ***Do not chase directly when price breaks out or breaks down, because you cannot know in advance whether that liquidity will be respected.*** + + + +### Equal High / Equal Low + +- When two or more Swing Highs or Swing Lows line up at roughly the same level, we can call them EQH or EQL. +- Like Swing Highs and Swing Lows, they contain BSL or SSL. +- The difference is that this liquidity has already been validated, so it tends to carry slightly more weight. +- ***Do not chase directly when price breaks out or breaks down, because you cannot know in advance whether that liquidity will be respected.*** + + + +![Equal High and Equal Low](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/02.%20Liquidity/Equal%20High%20and%20Equal%20Low.png) + + + +## Liquidity Sweep + +> Also known as: +> +> - Stop Loss Hunt (SH / SLH) +> - Liquidity Grab (Grab) +> - Liquidity Raid (Raid) +> - Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) +> - Fu: I do not know what this one is either, but it basically means the same thing. + + + +- A Liquidity Sweep is the behavior where price breaks through liquidity and then quickly reclaims the level. +- After price breaks through the level, Smart Money completes Order Pairing with speculative traders, inventory changes hands, and the market then reverses. +- A Liquidity Sweep is the **starting point** of every bullish or bearish structure. + + + +![Liquidity Sweep](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/02.%20Liquidity/Liquidity%20Sweep.png) + + + +## Liquidity Run and Price Delivery + +After price raids opposite-side liquidity, price delivery begins. We call this behavior a **Liquidity Run**. + + + +- **Low Resistance Liquidity Run (LRLR)** + +When price delivers very smoothly and does not spend much time pausing at opposing liquidity, meaning resistance is low, we call it a **Low Resistance Liquidity Run (LRLR)**. + + + +- **High Resistance Liquidity Run (HRLR)** + +When price delivery is not smooth and spends most of its time in a choppy or consolidating state, meaning resistance is high, we call it a **High Resistance Liquidity Run (HRLR)**. This suggests that the current price delivery is not very strong. + +> When we see HRLR, we can expect a strong one-directional price delivery after the reversal, where price easily breaks through the resistance created during the HRLR and transitions into LRLR. + + + +![HRLR and LRLR](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/02.%20Liquidity/HRLR%20and%20LRLR.png) + + + +### Change in State of Delivery (CISD) + +After price completes a Liquidity Sweep, if the closing price of the consecutive candles that absorbed liquidity is engulfed, we can consider that the direction of Price Delivery is about to change. This behavior is called Change in State of Delivery (CISD). Similar to MSS, CISD can also be used to identify reversal price action. + + + +![Change in State of Delivery](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/02.%20Liquidity/Change%20in%20State%20of%20Delivery.png) diff --git a/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 03. Imbalance.md b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 03. Imbalance.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1bf2d6b --- /dev/null +++ b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 03. Imbalance.md @@ -0,0 +1,97 @@ +# Imbalance + +> We previously mentioned that price only displaces toward liquidity and imbalance areas. In the previous chapter, we explained liquidity in detail. Here, we will explain the concept of imbalance. + + + +- When price produces a large displacement, we can assume that Smart Money has entered the market with significant capital. +- When large capital enters the market, the sharp displacement can cause some limit orders to go unfilled, creating inefficiency and liquidity imbalance in a specific price area. +- When liquidity becomes imbalanced, Smart Money guides price back into the imbalance area to fill the remaining orders. This is called Rebalance. +- After liquidity in the imbalance area has been rebalanced, price will continue in its original direction of delivery. + + + +This fully explains the ICT/SMC idea that "price only displaces toward liquidity and imbalances." + +If Smart Money wants to make a profit, there are only two things it needs to do: + +1. Raid the stop-loss orders of speculative traders. +2. Fill the orders it failed to fill earlier. + + + +## Fair Value Gap (FVG) + +When three consecutive candles appear, and the wick of the first candle does not fully overlap with the wick of the third candle, we call the area between them a **Fair Value Gap (FVG)**. This means there is an imbalance in that price range, and the algorithm may guide price back to that area in the future to rebalance it. + + + +> Note: On the chart, we use (+) to represent bullish and (-) to represent bearish. +> +> Also known as: +> +> - Imbalance (IMB) +> - Inefficiency +> - Buyside Imbalance Sellside Inefficiency (BISI): bullish imbalance and sellside inefficiency, meaning +FVG. +> - Sellside Imbalance Buyside Inefficiency (SIBI): bearish imbalance and buyside inefficiency, meaning -FVG. +> - Liquidity Void (LV) +> - Liquidity Gap (LG) + + + +![Fair Value Gap](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/03.%20Imbalance/Fair%20Value%20Gap.png) + +> The midpoint of an FVG is called Consequent Encroachment (CE). + +## Inversion Fair Value Gap (IFVG) + +When price passes through an FVG and directly engulfs it without rebalancing it, the order flow at that area reverses. We call the engulfed FVG an + +**Inversion Fair Value Gap (IFVG)**. Generally speaking, IFVG tends to be stronger than a regular FVG. + + + +![Inversion Fair Value Gap](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/03.%20Imbalance/Inversion%20Fair%20Value%20Gap.png) + +## Balance Price Range (BPR) + +When two opposing FVGs overlap, the overlapping area is called a Balance Price Range (BPR). When price enters a BPR, it should react quickly and produce strong Displacement. + +![Balance Price Range](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/03.%20Imbalance/Balance%20Price%20Range.png) + + + +## Institutional Order Flow Entry Drill (IOFED) + +When market conditions are extremely strong, an FVG may not be filled effectively. We call this IOFED. IOFED must satisfy the following two conditions: + +- The market produces a large Displacement and forms an FVG. +- Price quickly retraces into the FVG, but **the retracement does not exceed 50% of the FVG**. + + + +When this type of price action appears, we call it IOFED. It means that price delivery is **extremely strong**. + +> In some stricter definitions, price must rebalance and reject immediately on the next candle after the FVG forms in order to be considered IOFED. + + + +![Institutional Order Flow Entry Drill](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/03.%20Imbalance/Institutional%20Order%20Flow%20Entry%20Drill.png) + + + +## New Week Open Gap (NWOG) + +In stock and futures markets, weekends are generally closed, so charts remain static over the weekend. If price moves during the weekend, the chart cannot display that movement in real time, which creates a gap between Monday's open and the previous Friday's close. We call this gap the New Week Open Gap (NWOG). + +When an NWOG appears, the orders in that area are also unfilled, so imbalance exists there as well. Future price will tend to rebalance the NWOG. + +Because the crypto market trades 24/7, this phenomenon is relatively uncommon in crypto. However, we can still observe CME futures gaps to get a similar effect. + +> - CME futures charts can be found on TradingView by searching BTC1! for Bitcoin futures or ETH1! for Ether futures. +> - A similar concept is the New Day Open Gap (NDOG), but it is basically not useful in crypto markets. + +![New Week Open Gap](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/03.%20Imbalance/New%20Week%20Open%20Gap.png) + + + diff --git a/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 04. Supply and Demand.md b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 04. Supply and Demand.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4b597c3 --- /dev/null +++ b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 04. Supply and Demand.md @@ -0,0 +1,117 @@ +# Supply and Demand + +> We know that every move institutions make can have a major impact on market direction. Therefore, we can try to locate institutional footprints on the chart and profit by following their entry points. + + + +## Order Block (OB) + +An Order Block (OB) is an area where institutional money or major investors placed significant orders in the market. These areas often mark key turning points or continuation points in price, because institutional capital is large enough that price often forms support or resistance around these zones. The basic way to locate an OB on the chart is as follows: + +- After price creates a clear Swing Point, it often reverses and produces a large Displacement. +- At that moment, we can mark the last candle that moved opposite to the direction of price delivery. +- The range formed by that candle is the Order Block we are looking for. + +![Order Block](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/04.%20Supply%20and%20Demand/Order%20Block.png) + +> The chart marks each OB and the direction of price delivery it corresponds to. Simply put, after price moves, we find the last opposite-direction candle. That candle is the OB we want. + + + +- A bearish OB can be viewed as a supply zone, while a bullish OB can be viewed as a demand zone. +- There are many ways to draw an OB. Some traders only use the body of the candle and ignore the wick. Others treat a sequence of opposite-direction candles as one entire OB. There is no absolute right or wrong answer. What matters is the price action when price returns to the OB. +- The midpoint of an OB is called the Mean Threshold (MT). + +> Personally, most of the time I only treat the candle body as the valid range of the order block, unless the body is too small or price returns to the wick area and produces a strong reaction. + + + +The logic behind an order block is as follows: when price moves aggressively, we can view it as Smart Money entering the market at that area. Therefore, the opposite-direction candle before the aggressive move can be seen as manipulation before Smart Money enters. The goal is to push price in the opposite direction, obtain inventory at a relatively favorable price, and then deploy the main position. In that sense, an OB is the footprint Smart Money leaves behind when entering the market. When price returns to the OB, Smart Money attempts to complete the unfilled orders there and push price again. + +> When price respects an OB and moves away in the opposite direction again, that behavior is called Mitigation. + + + +Although OBs are easy to find and seem easy to use, a truly high-quality OB should satisfy the following three conditions: + +- A Liquidity Sweep is completed: this reflects Smart Money manipulation before entry. +- After the OB forms, price produces a large Displacement, ideally with an FVG: this shows Smart Money has truly entered the market. +- The Displacement after the OB forms should ideally also complete an MSS: this further confirms Smart Money participation. + +![The Real Order Block](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/04.%20Supply%20and%20Demand/The%20Real%20Order%20Block.png) + +> Example of a high-quality OB. + + + +## Breaker Block (BB) + +When we see an OB form and successfully create an MSS, but that OB is later not respected and price cuts directly through it, the order flow at that area reverses, similar to the relationship between FVG and IFVG. A bullish OB then becomes a bearish OB, and a bearish OB becomes a bullish OB. + + + +![Breaker Block](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/04.%20Supply%20and%20Demand/Breaker%20Block.png) + + + +The logic behind a Breaker Block is as follows: + +- When an order block appears and price completes an MSS, but the OB is not respected, it means that the price delivery was actually **false delivery**. Its purpose was to lure speculative traders into following the continuation so Smart Money could complete Order Pairing. +- When price breaks through that OB, the true direction of price delivery is revealed. After Smart Money guides price into the real direction of delivery, it needs to **recover the cost spent earlier to trap speculative traders**. +- Therefore, after price moves in the true direction, it returns to the Breaker Block to recover that cost. +- For trapped speculative traders, this is the only chance to get out. We can also enter while Smart Money is recovering its cost. + + + +## Mitigation Block (MB) + +The structure and logic of a Mitigation Block are extremely similar to a Breaker Block. The difference is that a Breaker Block comes from a basic order block that produces MSS before being engulfed in the opposite direction, while a Mitigation Block forms when an order block fails to produce MSS and is directly engulfed in the opposite direction after a Failure Swing. + +> A Failure Swing refers to a move within a trending swing that fails to create a new high or new low with BOS. It can be viewed as a sign that the force driving price is weakening. + + + +![Breaker Block vs. Mitigation Block](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/04.%20Supply%20and%20Demand/Breaker%20Block%20vs.%20Mitigation%20Block.png) + + + +- Mitigation Block and Breaker Block share the same formation logic. The only difference is that a Mitigation Block does not produce MSS before it is broken. +- Wherever a Breaker Block can be used, a Mitigation Block can usually be used as a substitute as well, which will be mentioned later when we discuss entry models. In terms of strength, however, Breaker Block is generally better than Mitigation Block. + + + +## Propulsion Block (PB) + +When price returns to an order block, reverses, and then immediately creates a new order block, we call the new one a Propulsion Block (PB). A Propulsion Block is also known as an order block inside an order block. When it appears, it can be understood as Smart Money pushing price forward from that area. + + + +![Propulsion Block](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/04.%20Supply%20and%20Demand/Propulsion%20Block.png) + + + +- When price touches a Propulsion Block, it should not break through the PB's MT. +- When price touches a Propulsion Block, it should move away quickly. + + + +## Rejection Block (RB) + +When price touches a key level and prints a long wick, we call that behavior Rejection. It shows that price has a strong intention to move away from the area. The wick of that candle is called a Rejection Block. + + + +![Rejection Block](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/04.%20Supply%20and%20Demand/Rejection%20Block.png) + + + +## Reclaimed Block + +Earlier, we mentioned that order blocks are traces left by Smart Money when it buys or sells in the market. When market structure reverses, an order block that was once used for buying may later be used for selling, and an order block that was once used for selling may later be used for buying. We call this type of order block a Reclaimed Block. + + + +![Reclaimed Block](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/04.%20Supply%20and%20Demand/Reclaimed%20Block.png) + +> To explain the logic of Reclaimed Block in more depth, we would need to introduce the concept of MMXM, or the Market Maker Model. So if this part feels unclear for now, that is normal. MMXM will be explained in detail later. + diff --git a/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 05. Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm.md b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 05. Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0ec4a87 --- /dev/null +++ b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 05. Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm.md @@ -0,0 +1,129 @@ +# Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm + +## Preface + +> The previous chapters covered the most basic elements of ICT/SMC. Starting from this chapter, we will move into theories that are more core and more conceptual. Some of these ideas may be difficult to represent in a standardized way on a chart, but they have a major impact on your chart-reading framework. If you have not fully understood the previous material, make sure to review it properly and learn step by step. + + + +Price movement does not depend on support and resistance. So-called support and resistance are only market illusions. Every price movement in the market is controlled behind the scenes by an invisible hand, and that "hand" is called the ***Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA)***. + + + +There are four states of price delivery: + +- **Expansion** +- **Retracement** +- **Consolidation** +- **Reversal** + +Price delivery has only these four states, and price transitions between them. Each state has its own characteristics, and state transitions usually come with contact into a key level or price range. + + + +![IPDA State](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/05.%20Interbank%20Price%20Delivery%20Algorithm/IPDA%20State.png) + +> The chart shows the transition relationship between the four states. + + + +## Consolidation + +- **Consolidation means price is moving inside a clear trading range, such as a channel, box, triangle, and so on.** +- **It shows that price does not have a strong intention to rise or fall significantly.** +- **All market moves begin from consolidation.** +- **Pay attention to the EQ of the consolidation range.** +- **Look for long opportunities when price reaches Discount or when SSL is swept, and look for short opportunities when price reaches Premium or when BSL is swept.** + + + +![Consolidation](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/05.%20Interbank%20Price%20Delivery%20Algorithm/Consolidation.png) + +> The chart shows a standard Consolidation. + + + +- We can look for shorts at Premium, above EQ, or when BSL is swept. We can look for longs at Discount, below EQ, or when SSL is swept. This allows us to profit by following the Market Maker's Accumulation behavior. + +- We can also see that when the Consolidation range is broken to the downside, price produces a large Displacement, which can be viewed as a typical Expansion. + + + +## Expansion + +- **Expansion refers to fast price movement.** +- **When Expansion appears, it means the Market Maker wants to reprice the asset.** +- **Expansion is the main part of Price Delivery.** +- **We want MSS and FVG to appear together with Expansion.** +- **Watch the EQ or OBs near EQ for entries.** + + + +![Consolidation](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/05.%20Interbank%20Price%20Delivery%20Algorithm/Expansion.png) + +> This chart is the same as the previous one. It shows a standard Consolidation followed by Expansion. + + + +- When price touches EQ or respects an OB near EQ, we can use that OB near EQ for entry. +- Participating in Expansion is essentially profiting by following the Market Maker's Price Delivery. + + + +## Retracement + +- **Retracement means price returns into the most recently created price range.** +- **When price returns into a recent price range, it shows that the Market Maker wants to reprice into the Fair Value Gap (FVG), where trading was inefficient.** +- **Watch the FVG for entries.** +- **When price fills the FVG, we can use the depth of the fill to judge how strong the current market is.** + + + +![Retracement](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/05.%20Interbank%20Price%20Delivery%20Algorithm/Retracement.png) + +> This chart is the same as the previous two charts. It shows a typical Retracement. Here we can see price entering low-level consolidation after Expansion, then retracing into the FVG. + + + +- We can enter when price respects the FVG. +- Participating as Retracement ends is essentially profiting by following the Market Maker as it continues Price Delivery. + + + +## Reversal + +- **Reversal means the current trend ends and price starts moving in the opposite direction.** +- **When Reversal appears, it means the Market Maker has taken enough liquidity and wants to move price in the opposite direction to seek new arbitrage space.** +- **Watch HTF POI and MSS/CISD.** + + + +![image-20240803055020917](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/05.%20Interbank%20Price%20Delivery%20Algorithm/Reversal.png) + +> This chart is the same as the previous three charts. It shows a standard Reversal structure. After sweeping the low's BSL and touching a Rejection on the daily chart, price rallies upward, produces MSS, fully invalidates the previous downtrend, and begins a new rally. + + + +- We can use structural change to determine whether Reversal has occurred. +- Participating after Reversal is confirmed is essentially following the expected reversal in Price Delivery. +- Do not gamble on a reversal before price reaches an HTF POI. + + + +## Review + + + +![image-20240803055020917](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/05.%20Interbank%20Price%20Delivery%20Algorithm/IPDA-example.png) + +Here, let us review the full chart and observe the details of how IPDA performs Price Delivery. + +1. First, price begins Consolidation inside the range, moving back and forth while accumulating. +2. After price touches the OB at EQ for the final time, Expansion begins. +3. Price then begins another round of Consolidation. +4. After touching EQ, price begins Retracement. +5. Price retraces into the FVG created during Expansion, then sells off again and enters another Consolidation. +6. Finally, price will raid H4 liquidity and deliver into the daily POI. +7. Price produces Reversal and creates MSS. +8. A new round of delivery begins. + diff --git a/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 06. Dealing Range.md b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 06. Dealing Range.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6b991e7 --- /dev/null +++ b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 06. Dealing Range.md @@ -0,0 +1,92 @@ +# Dealing Range + +As long as you can identify a Swing High and a Swing Low, the price between those two points can be called a "range." This pair of Swing High and Swing Low can be any two points, although ideally they should be meaningful points, especially Swing Points that appear after MSS. The following are several Swing Points we commonly use in trading: + + + +- Previous Week High (PWH), Previous Week Low (PWL) +- Previous Day High (PDH), Previous Day Low (PDL) +- Monday High, Monday Low +- Asia High, Asia Low + +> The open price can also be used as part of a trading setup. This will be explained in more detail later in the PO3 and Time and Price chapters. + + + +Aside from the Swing Points listed above, any swing high or low you can identify can be used as your range setup. As always, as long as you know what you are doing, you can do whatever you want. + + + +![Range](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/06.%20Range/Range.png) + + + +## Premium and Discount Array Matrix (PDA Matrix) + +> The name sounds intimidating, but it is really just a way to combine the things we have already covered. Once you finish this section, it should make sense. + + + +### Premium and Discount (P/D) + +After defining a Range, we can use Fibonacci to measure the midpoint of the range, which is 0.5. If you have followed the previous lessons carefully, you already know that the 0.5 level of a range is called Equilibrium (EQ). In ICT/SMC, the area above EQ is considered Premium, while the area below EQ is considered Discount. + +When price trades into Premium, we can treat price as relatively expensive and tend to look for short opportunities. When price trades into Discount, we can treat price as relatively cheap and tend to look for long opportunities. + +![Premium and Discount](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/06.%20Range/Premium%20and%20Discount.png) + +At this point, we can combine all the FVGs, OBs, and Liquidity concepts we learned earlier with Premium/Discount. This gives us the following matrix or array: + +![Premium and Discount](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/06.%20Range/PDA%20Matrix.png) + +> We collectively refer to OBs, FVGs, Liquidity, and other elements that may provide opposing force as PDA. + +You do not need to memorize this image. You only need to understand that when you draw out a range, a large number of PDAs will be arranged from top to bottom inside that range. Having this concept is enough. The idea of PDA is very important and will appear repeatedly in the following chapters. + + + +## Internal Range Liquidity (IRL) & External Range Liquidity (ERL) + +- **External Range Liquidity (ERL)**: old highs or old lows. You can simply understand this as Liquidity. +- **Internal Range Liquidity (IRL)**: the various OBs and FVGs created during price delivery. + +- **Price only moves between ERL and IRL**. When price is executing one-directional delivery, it will take ERL and then perform Retracement until IRL is rebalanced or mitigated. This behavior is called **ERL to IRL**. Afterward, price will immediately reverse and continue delivering in the original direction, attempting to take ERL. This behavior is called **IRL to ERL**. + +- **Draw on Liquidity (DOL)**: + + - Therefore, after price takes ERL, you would expect price to go back and take IRL. At that point, you would focus on a specific IRL on the chart and believe it has a draw on price. You would expect price to return to that IRL. Likewise, after price fills IRL, you would expect a certain ERL to have a draw on price, and you would expect price to deliver toward that ERL to continue price delivery. + + - The PDA that has this draw on price is what you consider your DOL. DOL should be the element you care about most when trading, because in theory, price's reaction to your DOL directly affects all of your decisions. + + > - If you often watch my charts, you will almost never see me explicitly label DOL. But the concept of DOL is extremely important. You do not have to draw it, but you must have the concept in your mind. In many cases, DOL directly determines your Bias, and this will be mentioned repeatedly later. + > - There is a similar concept called **Point of Interest (POI)**, which basically refers to the PDA you are paying attention to. I will not explain too much on it here. + +- **Institutional Order Flow (IOF)**: when price is delivering in one direction, same-direction PDAs will keep being respected, while opposing PDAs will keep being broken. + +![ERL & IRL](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/06.%20Range/ERL%20%26%20IRL.png) + +> Example of standard Institutional Order Flow and ERL / IRL. + + + +## Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) + +- Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) is a common ICT tool used to assist entries. It cannot be used on its own and must be combined with the concepts and elements discussed earlier. +- OTE refers to the Fibonacci 0.62 - 0.79 range, with 0.705 as its EQ. When you enter inside this range, you can often obtain an excellent risk-to-reward ratio. +- OTE can also help you locate take-profit targets, but again, all of this must be combined with DOL, PDA, and the other concepts discussed earlier. +- **Finally, remember not to use OTE outside the context of the other concepts. It is only an auxiliary tool.** + + + +![OTE](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/06.%20Range/OTE.png) + + + +- **1**: swing origin. +- **0**: swing endpoint, meaning the Swing Point where Retracement begins. +- **0.5**: EQ of the swing range. +- **0.62 - 0.79**: **the Optimal Trade Entry area. You can watch PDAs here for entries**. +- **0.705**: **the EQ of the OTE area. You can watch PDAs here for entries**. +- -0.27: you can look for a PDA here as your first take-profit target (TP1). +- -0.62: you can look for a PDA here as your second take-profit target (TP2). +- -1: you can look for a PDA here as your third take-profit target (TP3). diff --git a/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 07. Advanced Market Structure.md b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 07. Advanced Market Structure.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fb2f3ab --- /dev/null +++ b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 07. Advanced Market Structure.md @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +# Advanced Market Structure + +This chapter may feel more technical. Many of the concepts discussed here do not have a fixed visual form on the chart, but please make the effort to understand them. I consider this chapter the essence of ICT/SMC. Once you fully understand it, you will have a much deeper understanding of market structure and price delivery. + + + +## Top-Down Analysis + +When we focus on intraday trading, we often spend most of our attention on the fifteen-minute chart (M15). But if we want a broader view of price action, focusing only on M15 is not enough. We need to move up to a higher timeframe chart, such as the four-hour chart. If we want to read more detailed price action, M15 may also be insufficient, so we move down to a lower timeframe chart, such as the one-minute chart. ICT/SMC defines the relationship between different timeframes and standardizes which higher-timeframe and lower-timeframe charts correspond to each trading style, as well as what you should focus on at each timeframe. + +> Terminology: +> +> - M15: the "M" stands for "Minute," so "M15" means a fifteen-minute chart. We usually use a "letter + number" format to abbreviate timeframes. For example, "H4" means four-hour, and "W1" means weekly. +> - LTF/MTF/HTF: Low Time Frame / Middle Time Frame / High Time Frame + + + +**Time Frame Alignment** + +| | HTF | MTF | LTF | +| :--------------------------: | :-----: | :--: | :--: | +| Position Trading | Monthly | W1 | D1 | +| Swing Trading | W1 | D1 | H4 | +| Intraday Trading | D1 | H4 | M15 | +| Scalping Trade | H4 | M15 | M1 | + +- **HTF**: you should read market structure here, use ERL/IRL to find your DOL, and establish your Bias. +- **MTF**: you should look for trade opportunities here. +- **LTF**: you should refine your entry here. + + + +> In reality, the relationship between high, middle, and low timeframes is not defined this rigidly. If you like, you can look for trades on H1 and enter on M3, but this must be built on a solid understanding of how timeframes relate to one another. If you do not have a clear understanding of timeframe, follow the table above and do not do something reckless like finding Bias on the monthly chart and then jumping straight to the one-minute chart for entry. + + + +## Power of Three (PO3) + +### Structure + +PO3 is one of the core ideas in ICT/SMC. In essence, every trade you take using ICT/SMC is based on PO3. If you asked me what the most important concept in ICT/SMC is, my answer would be PO3. PO3 refers to a specific pattern of price movement and is mainly divided into the following three phases: + + + +1. **Accumulation Phase**: the market enters a consolidation-like phase, where Smart Money begins accumulating inventory around a specific price area, not necessarily a clearly defined range. Price action tends to be stable here and may create clear Swing Points or Liquidity. +2. **Manipulation Phase**: after the Accumulation Phase ends, Smart Money manipulates the market in the opposite direction as a fake move, raiding the Swing Points or Liquidity established during the Accumulation Phase. This is the same idea as the liquidity raid discussed in Chapter 1. The purpose of this phase is to lure speculative traders into chasing the move so Smart Money can complete Order Pairing. +3. **Distribution Phase**: after the raid is complete, price rapidly delivers in the true direction. This usually comes with a clear Liquidity Run or Expansion, and deliver price into DOL eventually. + + + +![PO3](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/07.%20Advanced%20Market%20Structure/PO3.png) + + + +- Anywhere a liquidity raid exists is essentially PO3. As long as your trade is related to a liquidity raid, you are trading a PO3, or in other words, you are expecting the market to form a complete PO3. +- You want to enter after the market completes Manipulation and exit when Distribution completes. +- When price sweeps a level and quickly reclaims the level, that behavior is also called **Turtle Soup**. Entering directly after the liquidity sweep and reclaim is called a **Turtle Soup Entry**. +- The swing that consumes liquidity is called the **Manipulation Leg**. +- **When trading PO3, you want the Manipulation on the current timeframe to enter an HTF DOL. From another angle, the current timeframe's Liquidity Sweep into DOL should appear as a PO3 on the LTF. This is the most important checkpoint before entry, and every entry must be paired with DOL.** + + + +### Standard Deviation (STDV) + +- Standard Deviation (STDV) is a common ICT tool used to assist entries. It cannot be used on its own and must be combined with the concepts and elements discussed earlier. +- STDV can also help you find exit targets, but again, all of this must be combined with PO3, DOL, PDA, and the other concepts discussed earlier. +- **Finally, remember not to use STDV outside the context of the other concepts. It is only an auxiliary tool.** + + + +Using STDV on the Manipulation Leg can help us identify the target price of a PO3 expansion. The following chart shows how STDV can assist PO3 trading. + +![STDV](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/07.%20Advanced%20Market%20Structure/STDV.png) + +***Manipulation Leg*** + +- **0**: the start of the Manipulation Leg. + +- **0.5**: the EQ of the Manipulation Leg. + +- **1**: the end of the Manipulation Leg. + + A valid Manipulation Leg should take your HTF DOL. When you judge that Manipulation has ended and the algorithm is about to begin Distribution, this is when you look for the PDA created during the Manipulation Phase and attempt a Turtle Soup. + + As mentioned when we explained IPDA, when price shifts from Consolidation into Expansion, we want to enter at the EQ of the Consolidation. Therefore, the most ideal PO3 entry is to find a PDA around the EQ of the Manipulation Leg. However, when PO3 completes Manipulation, price often expands very quickly, so you do not need to force a 0.5 entry every time. + +***Distribution Phase*** + +- **-1**: the 1:1 extension of the Manipulation Leg. +- **-2 ~ -2.5 (Retracement Range)**: the **Retracement Range** of price delivery. When price delivers into this area, there is a high probability of retracement. If delivery is not strong enough, price may even reverse directly from this area. Therefore, when trading PO3, you should consider looking for PDAs here to take partial profit, or at least set protective stops or hedges. If price does not reverse in this range, it indicates that price delivery is very strong. + +- **-3.5 ~ -4 (Reversal Range)**: the **Reversal Range** of price delivery. When price delivers into this area, there is a high probability of reversal. You should consider looking for PDAs here to exit all positions. If price breaks through this range, then the later move no longer has much to do with the PO3 you identified. It may be caused by Distribution on a higher timeframe, which prevents price delivery from reversing here. + +***STDV Entry Steps*** + +1. Identify the Manipulation Leg. Enter when price reclaims it with Turtle Soup, or look for a PDA created during Manipulation. Ideally, the entry is around EQ, but if that is not available, do not force it. +2. Draw STDV and look for PDAs around **-2 ~ -2.5** to take partial profit or exit fully. +3. If price reaches a PDA around **-3.5 ~ -4**, it is best to exit fully. + +***Trade Example*** + +![PO3 + STDV](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/07.%20Advanced%20Market%20Structure/PO3%20%2B%20STDV.png) + + + +### OHLC & OLHC + +In reality, every candle is a complete PO3 structure on the LTF, although it may not always provide a good trading opportunity. This is the concept of fractals. + +- When a candle first raids above the open to create the high, then distributes downward to create the low, we can call that structure OHLC (Open/High/Low/Close). +- When a candle first raids below the open to create the low, then distributes upward to create the high, we can call that structure OLHC (Open/Low/High/Close). + + + +![OHLC & OLHC](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/07.%20Advanced%20Market%20Structure/OHLC%20%26%20OLHC.png) + + + +- Therefore, when you trade PO3, from the HTF perspective you are actually entering at the wick. If you successfully exit when Distribution completes, your exit will be located at the wick on the other side. +- Combining this idea, you will realize that "Bias" is not only about whether you think the next swing will go up or down. **Your Bias actually means whether you think the next HTF candle should close as a bearish candlestick or a bullish candlestick**. Your DOL means where you think the wick of the next HTF candle should reach. +- This is why we first discussed Top-Down Analysis at the beginning of this chapter. Correctly applying HTF, LTF, fractals, and related concepts will make your trading system more complete. If you do not think about what is happening on the HTF while trading, your view can easily become limited by current-timeframe structure. Price may be retracing on the HTF, but you may mistakenly treat it as a reversal on the LTF and miss the later HTF trend continuation. + +### Daily PO3 + +From the beginning, we have known that ICT/SMC is essentially about trading based on liquidity, or Liquidity Trading. During a single day, different trading sessions have different liquidity conditions. This is also why ICT/SMC is most commonly applied to intraday trading and lower. We can profit from liquidity shifts throughout the day. In intraday trading, we go through three trading sessions, and together these three sessions form a full daily PO3. + + + +***Asia Session*** + +- **Corresponds to the day's Accumulation.** +- Mainly driven by institutions in Hong Kong, Tokyo, and nearby regions. +- Session: 08:00 ~ 14:00 (UTC+8) +- Asia Killzone: 08:00 ~ 10:00 (UTC+8) +- Usually, we do not want to trade during Asia Session. Instead, we watch the Accumulation range built during this period, known as the Asia Range, and observe how that range is raided later. + +***London Session*** + +- **Corresponds to the day's Manipulation**. +- Mainly driven by European institutions led by London. +- Session: + - Daylight saving time: 15:00 ~ 23:00 (UTC+8). + - Standard time: 16:00 ~ 24:00 (UTC+8). +- **London Open Killzone**: + - Daylight saving time: 15:00 ~ 18:00 (UTC+8). + - Standard time: 16:00 ~ 19:00 (UTC+8). +- **London Close Killzone**: + - Daylight saving time: 21:00 ~ 23:00 (UTC+8). + - Standard time: 21:00 ~ 23:00 (UTC+8). +- During London Session, we watch how Asia Range liquidity is raided. Usually, when time moves from Asia Session into London Session, volatility begins to increase. London Killzone refers to the two hours after the open and the two hours before the close. During these periods, volume tends to peak, liquidity is sufficient, and the high or low of the day is often created. +- London Session is full of fake moves, also known as Judas Swing. Based on my experience, trades taken during London should generally be more conservative. + +***New York Session*** + +- **Corresponds to the day's Distribution**. +- Mainly driven by American institutions led by Wall Street. +- Session: + - Daylight saving time: 21:30 ~ 04:00 (UTC+8). + - Standard time: 22:30 ~ 05:00 (UTC+8). +- **New York Killzone**: + - Daylight saving time: 21:30 ~ 23:30 (UTC+8). + - Standard time: 22:30 ~ 00:30 (UTC+8). +- Wall Street controls the largest pool of capital in the world, so New York Session is the peak of daily volume and liquidity. Usually, after New York Session has completed London Manipulation, it pushes price into one-directional delivery, completes the day's Distribution target, and creates the daily high or daily low. +- The job of New York Session is to complete the day's Distribution. Based on my experience, if you get an excellent entry during London Session or New York Killzone, you can try to take your final profit during this period. + + + +For Daily PO3, having the concept is enough. London Session and New York Session are indeed the most suitable trading sessions during the day, but in my view, crypto's timezone behavior is extremely messy. Sometimes you will see Asia Range go directly into Expansion and then consolidate for the rest of the day. This section is mainly meant to give you more session-based confluence when entering trades, helping you build confidence and complete your trading thought process. Do not simply assume that this section alone allows you to find the best entry in London every day and hold it all the way to the New York Distribution high or low. + + + +## Market Maker Model (MMXM) + +The Market Maker Model refers to the basic operating structure of how the Market Maker executes price delivery. Based on buying and selling, it can be divided into the Market Maker Buy Model (MMBM) and the Market Maker Sell Model (MMSM). Together, MMBM and MMSM are collectively called MMXM. + + + +MMXM is built mainly around two key ideas: + +- ERL & IRL: price only delivers between ERL (Liquidity) and IRL (OB / FVG). +- PO3: price delivery goes through the three phases of Accumulation / Manipulation / Distribution. + +Make sure you fully understand these two points. If you do not understand them yet, go back and review. If you still cannot understand them, just come ask me directly. + + + +![MMXM](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/07.%20Advanced%20Market%20Structure/MMXM.jpg) + + + +- **Original Consolidation**: as mentioned in IPDA, all price delivery begins from Consolidation. +- **Low Risk Buy (LRB), Low Risk Sell (LRS)**: trade opportunities provided at the initial stage of price delivery reversal, after higher-timeframe liquidity has been taken. Participating here can provide an excellent risk-to-reward ratio. +- **Accumulation**: the accumulation phase in PO3. +- **Smart Money Reversal (SMR)**: the behavior where lower-timeframe price delivery reaches the higher timeframe, takes higher-timeframe liquidity, and then reverses. +- **Distribution**: the first distribution that occurs after SMR as price delivers toward the higher-timeframe ERL. This mainly distributes the profit-taking inventory from the LRS/LRB after SMR. +- **Re-Distribution**: distributes the remaining inventory from the first Distribution and delivers price into the STDV 2~2.5 area, forming a complete PO3. + + + +MMXM has no fixed form. The MMXM shown in the chart is only an illustration. MMXM describes how HTF IRL to ERL appears on the LTF. Every HTF IRL to ERL is an LTF MMXM. The core idea is that **all lower-timeframe price action serves the higher timeframe. When lower-timeframe price runs into a higher-timeframe PDA, all lower-timeframe price delivery will reverse and become higher-timeframe liquidity**. + diff --git a/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 08. Entry.md b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 08. Entry.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c17bbc1 --- /dev/null +++ b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/en/Chapter 08. Entry.md @@ -0,0 +1,119 @@ +# Entry + +First, congratulations on making it to the final chapter. The reason "Entry" is placed at the end is that you should already be fully familiar with all ICT/SMC concepts before you have enough theoretical foundation to support your entries. Blindly copying entry models mechanically will only get you punished by the market. In reality, all ICT/SMC entry models are just combinations of the concepts discussed in the previous chapters. If you understand the previous material well enough, you may not even need to read this chapter. + + + +## Setup + +Before applying an entry model, you need to complete the following steps: + +1. Establish your Bias. You need to know whether you are bullish or bearish. You must approach the market with a clear Bias, and that Bias may come from data, news, ERL & IRL, and so on. +2. On the **HTF**, identify your Point of Interest (POI). It may be a specific PDA on the higher timeframe. +3. Wait for a liquidity raid on the **MTF** that also enters the HTF POI you identified, meaning Liquidity Sweep into HTF POI. When price creates a false breakout but does not enter the HTF POI, you should not try to trade it. You should think carefully about whether the current price action is a liquidity sweep or a real breakout. +4. On the **MTF**, define IRL & ERL. At this point, you should have a clear DOL, meaning the area where you believe price should go. +5. Move into the **LTF**. Based on the IRL & ERL you just identified, define a clear MMXM and Dealing Range. Know exactly which part of MMXM you are in, while observing more detailed price action to strengthen your Bias as much as possible. +6. If you are bullish, look for entries in Discount. If you are bearish, look for entries in Premium. +7. Make sure you are taking a trade with a high risk-to-reward ratio, at least greater than 1R, and then enter. + + + +The chart below is a recent BTC short setup I took, which I will use as an example: + +![BTC Example](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/08.%20Entry/BTC%20Example.jpg) + +1. **HTF Bias**: on the daily chart, price produced a Liquidity Sweep, entered a bearish weekly order block, and showed strong rejection. This area also happened to be inside the Dealing Range OTE, with the candle closing perfectly inside OTE. Therefore, we established a clear bearish Bias and used the weekly order block as our HTF POI. + + Because we mainly used the weekly order block to build Bias, I wanted this to be a **Swing Trade**. I wanted to get Bias from the weekly chart, find IRL & ERL on the daily chart to obtain DOL, and finally enter on the four-hour chart. + +2. **Liquidity Sweep into HTF POI**: on the daily chart, we observed price performing a Liquidity Sweep and entering our weekly order block, which was the HTF POI. + +3. **MTF IRL to ERL**: on the daily chart, we can see that after price entered our HTF POI, it respected the area strongly. At the same time, there was a long upper-wick order block on the left side of the chart. We could treat this upper wick as an important IRL. After price respected IRL, the next step should be price delivery toward ERL. + +4. **DOL**: at this point on the chart, we could clearly treat the daily SSL as an important MTF ERL. We believed it would be raided during the IRL to ERL price delivery, while price would enter another HTF POI during the raid. Since the weekly chart was still in a clear bullish market structure, I chose the nearest PDA more conservatively, which was the daily Breaker, as my DOL. + +5. **LTF MMXM**: on the four-hour chart, after drawing STDV, we could clearly see that price was at the end of the old MMBM and the beginning of a new MMSM. Price first formed a Sell Curve, then after taking the daily SSL, it created a Smart Money Reversal and formed a Buy Curve, reaching the daily Rejection Block. The thin labels mark the old MMBM, and the bold labels mark the new MMSM. Price was preparing for a new Smart Money Reversal. + +6. At the same time, we could see that when price entered the STDV 2.0-2.5 area, the price action was an upward HRLR. This strengthened our bearish Bias. We expected the liquidity created by this HRLR to later become the fuel for a downside LRLR. + +7. After drawing a new STDV, I chose not to return to the MTF to look for PDAs inside the 2.0-2.5 area. To stay conservative, I used the daily Breaker we had already identified as the take-profit target. + +8. After the four-hour candle closed below the daily Rejection Block, we could see that price formed a BPR on the four-hour chart. This indicated that the liquidity above was balanced, and price had no reason to move back up and test the BPR. Even if price did return, it should reject quickly. In addition, the bullish FVG being engulfed was also a poor sign for bulls. All of these factors strengthened our bearish Bias. + +9. **Entry**: based on the above, this formed my short setup, and I chose to enter here. + + - Entry: 68050 (H4 Turtle Soup) + - Take-profit: 52500 (D1 Breaker). + - Stop-loss: 72300 (above the previous MMBM's STDV 2.5). + +At this point, we had a trade with a 3.66R risk-to-reward ratio. That is an acceptable number, so the trade was worth taking decisively. Afterward, price successfully reached the take-profit target, making it a solid trade. + + + +## Entry Model + +After the previous seven chapters, you should already have learned many things. But in practice, you may still not know how to enter. The so-called "entry model" teaches you how to build your own entry setup. Of course, you can copy the entry models given here directly into live trading, but you still need to understand why the model is built this way. Once you understand entry models, your trading will not need to rely on them. + +An entry model should include the following steps: + +1. Liquidity sweep +2. Price action that confirms reversal (MSS/CISD) +3. Retracement into a PDA and entry when price respects it + +> Generally speaking, ICT entry models limit the trading time, usually requiring entries during London or New York Killzone. However, as I mentioned earlier, crypto's timezone behavior is extremely messy. Based on my experience, as long as liquidity is sufficient, trading is feasible. + +There are many types of entry models. Here, I will simply list a few so you can understand what an entry model looks like. If you want to learn more, you can ask in the community. + +### ICT 2022 Model + +This is the most classic entry model. According to ICT himself, this is the model he gave to his daughter, and everyone can use it to achieve financial freedom within 90 days. Here, I am only responsible for introducing the model. Whether or not it really gives you freedom is something you can experience for yourself. + +#### Setup + +1. Liquidity sweep +2. MSS +3. Enter when price respects the FVG +4. Place the stop-loss below the low of the Liquidity Sweep, or use a more aggressive stop directly below the FVG or below the low created when price retraces into the FVG +5. Set take-profit at your DOL, which can be obtained through STDV or any PDA where you believe price should go + +![ICT 2022 Model](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/08.%20Entry/ICT%202022%20Model.png) + +### Silver Bullet Model + +This is basically the same as the 2022 Model, except it adds strict time restrictions. The Silver Bullet Model limits trades to the following three windows: + +- New York AM: 10:00 PM ~ 11:00 PM Taipei time + +- New York PM: 02:00 AM ~ 03:00 AM Taipei time + +- London Open: 03:00 PM ~ 04:00 PM Taipei time + +> The times above are based on daylight saving time. During standard time, shift them one hour later. The Silver Bullet Model also limits the trading timeframe to below M15, usually M5 to M1. +> +> In fact, most ICT entry models recommend executing trades inside killzones. The Silver Bullet Model is just stricter. + +### Unicorn Model + +This is similar to the 2022 Model, except it adds a breaker to the entry. + +#### Setup + +1. Liquidity sweep +2. MSS +3. Enter when price respects the area where FVG and Breaker overlap +4. Place the stop-loss below the low of the Liquidity Sweep, or use a more aggressive stop directly below the FVG or below the low created when price retraces into the FVG + Breaker +5. Set take-profit at your DOL, which can be obtained through STDV or any PDA where you believe price should go to + +![Unicorn Model](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/08.%20Entry/Unnicorn%20Model.png) + +### TGIF Model + +TGIF means "Thank God It's Friday." This is also a Friday-specific trading model. The logic is that after the market has rallied or sold off significantly during the week, it often retraces 20-30% of the weekly range on Friday. To use this model, the following conditions are required: + +1. Trade on Friday. +2. The opposite extreme of the week must have formed on Monday or Tuesday. If the week has been bullish, the weekly low should have formed on Monday or Tuesday, and vice versa. +3. The daily candles on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday should close in the same direction three days in a row. If the week has been bullish, then Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday should all close as bullish candles. +4. On the lower timeframe, usually below M15, wait for reversal price action such as MSS or CISD, then wait for price to retrace into the PDA you are interested in before entering. If you want to be more aggressive, you can also enter without waiting for the retracement. +5. Take-profit is 20-30% of the weekly range. Stop-loss is handled the same way as mentioned in the 2022 Model, depending on how aggressive you want to be. + +![TGIF Model](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/08.%20Entry/TGIF%20Model.png) diff --git "a/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 00. \345\274\225\350\250\200\357\275\234Inroduction.md" "b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 00. \345\274\225\350\250\200\357\275\234Inroduction.md" new file mode 100644 index 0000000..36712b1 --- /dev/null +++ "b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 00. \345\274\225\350\250\200\357\275\234Inroduction.md" @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +# 引言 / Introduction + +## 介紹 + +​ 我是 Kaiyn Capital 社群的共同創辦人 [@ronload](https://x.com/ron1oad)，截至目前（2024/08/01）使用 ICT/SMC 這套理論進行交易已經有大約半年的時間。在此之前，我主要使用傳統的 Price Action 進行交易。 Kaiyn Capital 社群已經營運了約一年，我相信我的交易績效在群裡的各位都有目共睹，在此不過多贅述。 + +​ 撰寫這份教學的目的是希望讓對 ICT/SMC 有興趣的人能夠系統化地學習並掌握這套交易系統。華語圈內多數的免費或付費課程講解得都比較淺薄，這導致許多新手在實際投入交易時對自己的行為缺乏清晰的認識。一套完整且邏輯自洽的交易理論並不是三言兩語就能說清楚的，尤其是基於價格行為所衍生出的理論（ICT/SMC 實際上是價格行為理論的一個分支）。 + +​ 如果你希望透過這份教學學習 ICT/SMC 並借此開展你的交易，**請務必堅持到最後**。和許多理論一樣，ICT/SMC 是一套完整且邏輯自洽的交易理論，許多早期提到的概念需要透過後期的知識來補充，後期的知識又依賴早期的概念來說明。因此，如果你只學習了 FVG、OB 等基礎概念，或是一些制式化的 Entry model 就貿然將資金投入市場，那就失去了這份教學的意義。 + +​ 最後，如果你有幸讀完了整份教學，在實際交易時，請務必搭配部位管理進行風險控制。如果脫離了部位管理，一切的交易理論都將淪為紙上談兵。謹記，50%的資金回撤需要100%的獲利來彌補。 + +如果你在學習中遇到了任何問題，歡迎加入 Kaiyn Capital 社群進行提問： + +𝕏 / Twitter: https://x.com/kaiyncapital + +Telegram 討論群：https://t.me/kaiyncapital + +## ICT/SMC 理論公設 + +ICT/SMC 是一套由 The Inner Circle Trader 提出的交易理論，該交易理論建立在以下幾個公設之上： + +- 價格的移動不依賴於支撐與阻力，所謂支撐與阻力只是市場的假象。市場中價格的所有行為都由一隻看不見的手在背後進行操縱，這被稱為***銀行間價格傳遞演算法（Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm, IPDA）***。 + +- 市場上的聰明錢（例如銀行等金融機構）透過 IPDA 控制價格，借此掠奪投機資金（散戶資金）。 + +- 聰明錢手中持有大量籌碼，能夠輕易引導價格。然而，大量資金需要大量反向訂單匹配進行成交，因此 IPDA 會引導價格前往大量訂單存在的區域進行成交。通常以下區域會存在大量訂單： + 1. 散戶的停損掛單區域，這些區域被稱為***流動性（Liquidity）***。 + 2. 聰明錢掛單但未成交的區域，這些區域被稱為***失衡區（Imbalance）***。 + + 價格只會向流動性和失衡區移動。 + +- 如果我們想在市場中獲利，應該***跟隨聰明錢的腳步***，而不是學習散戶的交易方式。 + +- 一天當中，「價格」與「時間」的關係非常重要。 + +- ICT/SMC 適合任何流動性充足的市場（因此你不會想拿這套理論去衝土狗）。 + +以上是學習 ICT/SMC 前需要擁有的背景知識。 + +> ​ 這些公設十分重要，後續在解釋各種概念時會被重複提起。但在我看來，ICT/SMC 只是萬千交易理論中的一種，只是一種解釋市場的方式（實際上所有交易理論都只是在用他們自己的邏輯解釋市場，而在我看來，**市場本身就是不可解釋的**），所謂的「演算法」其實也不一定存在。盡信書不如無書，你可以透過這些假設去理解 ICT/SMC 這套理論，但不一定要用它來解釋市場，更**別用它來詆毀其他交易理論**。謹記它只是價格行為的一種分支，不需要將它過度神格化，只要能賺錢的理論都是好的理論。 diff --git "a/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 01. \345\270\202\345\240\264\347\265\220\346\247\213\357\275\234Market Structure.md" "b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 01. \345\270\202\345\240\264\347\265\220\346\247\213\357\275\234Market Structure.md" new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b3a269f --- /dev/null +++ "b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 01. \345\270\202\345\240\264\347\265\220\346\247\213\357\275\234Market Structure.md" @@ -0,0 +1,58 @@ +# 市場結構 / Market Structure + +市場結構（Market Structure）是判斷價格運行方向的基本方法。透過正確地識別市場結構，我們可以避免與市場趨勢背道而馳，同時也有助於我們在行情反轉的初期及時抓住機會。 + + + +## 買方市場結構 / Bullish Market Structure + +由 **更高的高點（Higher High, HH）** 和 **更高的低點（Higher Low）** 所組成，價格不斷向上突破，表明此時價格有向上傳遞的意願。 + + + +![Bullish Market Structure](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/01.%20Market%20Structure/Bullish%20Market%20Structure.png) + +- 市場呈現上升趨勢的結構。 +- 價格創造了一系列更高的高點（Higher Highs, HH）和更高的低點（Higher Lows, HL）。 +- 高點不斷地被突破，低點不斷地被抬高。 +- 這意味著買方在市場上佔據主導地位，需求強勁，價格持續上漲。 +- 當市場呈現買方市場結構時，我們應該嘗試跟隨價格向上傳遞的腳步尋求做多機會。 + + + +## 賣方市場結構 / Bearish Market Structure + +由 **更低的高點（Lower High, LH）** 和 **更低的低點（Lower Low, LL）** 所組成，價格不斷向下跌破，表明此時價格有向下傳遞的意願。 + +![Bearish Market Structure](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/01.%20Market%20Structure/Bearish%20Market%20Structure.png) + +- 市場呈現下降趨勢的結構。 +- 價格創造了一系列更低的高點（Lower Highs, LH）和更低的低點（Lower Lows, LL）。 +- 低點不斷地被跌破，高點不斷地降低。 +- 這意味著賣方在市場上佔據主導地位，供應強勁且需求減弱，導致價格持續下跌。 +- 當市場呈現賣方市場結構時，我們應該跟隨價格向下傳遞的腳步尋求做空機會。 + + + +## 市場結構破壞 / Market Structure Break + +當一個波段高點/低點被突破/跌破時，我們稱之為**市場結構破壞（Market Structure Break, MSB）**，這表明價格傳遞的**延續**。 + +> 別名：結構破壞 / BOS (Break of Structure) + +![Market Structure Break](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/01.%20Market%20Structure/Market%20Structure%20Break.png) + + + +## 市場結構轉移 / Market Structure Shift + +當「最低的低點的前一個高點被突破」或「最高的高點的前一個低點被跌破」時，我們稱之為**市場結構轉移（Market Structure Shift）**，這表明價格傳遞方向的**改變**。 + +> 別名：特徵轉換 / CHOCH (Change of Charachter) + +![Market Structure Shift](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/01.%20Market%20Structure/Market%20Structure%20Shift.png) + +- 一個高效的 MSS 應該伴隨 Liquidity Sweep 和 Displacement 的出現，同時創造出 Imbalance。這些概念會在後面的章節補充。 + +- MSS 也可以理解成一種特殊的 MSB。 +- MSS 是 ICT/SMC 中判定趨勢反轉的典型結構。 diff --git "a/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 02. \346\265\201\345\213\225\346\200\247\357\275\234Liquidity.md" "b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 02. \346\265\201\345\213\225\346\200\247\357\275\234Liquidity.md" new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bcdd0a9 --- /dev/null +++ "b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 02. \346\265\201\345\213\225\346\200\247\357\275\234Liquidity.md" @@ -0,0 +1,109 @@ +# 流動性 / Liquidity + +> 在介紹 ICT / SMC 時，我們提到過流動性。價格只會以流動性和失衡區作為目標進行位移，這一章節我們要來深入探討流動性。 + + + +機構資金在進場時需要進行大量的訂單匹配（Order Pairing），所以並不是圖表上的所有價格都可以作為機構進場的成本價。機構在進場時需要依靠大量的流動性（Liquidity），以下幾個位置是 Liquidity 可能存在的地方。 + +- 波段高點（Swing High） / 波段低點（Swing Low） +- 等高點（Equal High, EQH）/ 等低點（Equal Low, EQL） + + + +## 辨識流動性 + +### 買方流動性 / Buyside Liquidity (BSL) + +- 當一個明確的高點被突破時，激進的投機資金會認為此時價格即將離開區間，並展開大幅上漲。 +- 所以當價格發生突破時，會出現大量的買入訂單，且前期的空單停損會被觸發（買入平倉），提供 Smart Money 進行 Order Paring 所需的 Liquidity。 +- Smart Money 會在此處和投機資金交換籌碼，利用投機資金的買入訂單進行賣出，完成空單資金進場。 +- 此時，我們將投機資金的追多買入訂單稱為***買方流動性（Buyside Liquidity, BSL）***。 + + + +### 賣方流動性 / Sellside Liquidity (SSL) + +- 當一個明確的低點被跌破時，激進的投機資金會認為此時價格即將離開區間，並展開大幅下跌。 +- 所以當價格發生跌破時，會出現大量的買入訂單，且前期的多單停損會被觸發（賣出平倉），提供 Smart Money 進行 Order Paring 所需的 Liquidity。 +- Smart Money 會在此處和投機資金交換籌碼，利用投機資金的賣出訂單進行買入，完成多單資金進場。 +- 此時，我們將投機資金的追空買入訂單稱為***賣方流動性（Sellside Liquidity, SSL）***。 + + + +### 波段高 / 低點（Swing High / Swing Low） + +- Swing High 指的是圖表中明確的高點。 +- 此處通常是投機資金放置停損的位置，會存在 Liquidity。 +- 當一個明確的 Swing High 被突破時，我們可以關注此時價格是否尊重這個高點的 BSL。 +- 當一個明確的 Swing Low 被跌破時，我們可以關注此時價格是否尊重這個低點的 SSL。 +- ***請勿在價格發生突破 / 跌破時直接追，因為你不能確定他是否會被尊重。*** + + + +### 等高點 / 等低點（Equal High, EQH / Equal Low, EQL） + +- 當兩個以上 Swing High / Swing Low 重合時，我們可以稱他為 EQH / EQL。 +- 和 Swing High / Swing Low 一樣，會存在 BSL / SSL。 +- 和 Swing High / Swing Low 的區別在於這部分的流動性是**被驗證過的**，效力會更強一點。 +- ***請勿在價格發生突破 / 跌破時直接追，因為你不能確定他是否會被尊重。*** + + + +![Equal High and Equal Low](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/02.%20Liquidity/Equal%20High%20and%20Equal%20Low.png) + + + +## 流動性清掃 / Liquidity Sweep + +> 別名： +> +> - Stop Loss Hunt (SH / SLH)：停損獵殺。 +> - Liquidity Grab (Grab)：流動性搶奪。 +> - Liquidity Raid (Raid)：流動性襲擊。 +> - Swing Failure Pattern (SFP)：失敗擺動型態。 +> - Fu：我也不知道這是啥，反正意思都一樣。 + + + +- Liquidity Sweep 指的是價格對 Liquidity 進行突破後快速收回的行為。 +- 當價格進行突破後，聰明錢會和投機資金完成 Order Pairing，雙方籌碼進行交換，隨即反轉行情。 +- Liquidity Sweep 是每一段多頭 or 空頭結構的**起點**。 + + + +![Liquidity Sweep](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/02.%20Liquidity/Liquidity%20Sweep.png) + + + +## 流動性運行與價格傳遞 / Liquidity Run and Price Delivery + +當價格掠奪反向流動性後，會開始進行價格傳遞。這個行為我們稱之為**流動性運行（Liquidity Run）**。 + + + +- **低阻力流動性運行 / Low Resistance Liquidity Run (LRLR)** + +當價格在傳遞的過程中十分順暢，遇到反向流動性時沒有過多的停留時（阻力低），我們稱這種現象為**低阻力流動性運行 / Low Resistance Liquidity Run (LRLR)**。 + + + +- **高阻力流動性運行 / High Resistance Liquidity Run (HRLR)** + +當價格在傳遞的過程中不太順暢，多數時間處在震盪狀態（阻力強），我們稱這種現象為**高阻力流動性運行 / High Resistance Liquidity Run (HRLR)**，這表明此時的價格傳遞並不是很強勢。 + +> 當我們看見 HRLR 時，我們可以預期價格在反轉後出現強勢的單方向價格傳遞，將價格在 HRLR 產生的阻力輕鬆突破並走出LRLR。 + + + +![HRLR and LRLR](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/02.%20Liquidity/HRLR%20and%20LRLR.png) + + + +### 傳遞狀態改變 / Change in State of Delivery（CISD） + +當價格完成 Liquidity Sweep 之後，如果消化流動性的連續K線之收盤價被吞噬，則此時我們可以認為 Price Delivery 的方向即將發生了改變，這個行為我們稱為 Change in State of Delivery（CISD）。與 MSS 類似，CISD 也是可以用來判斷反轉的價格行為。 + + + +![Change in State of Delivery](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/02.%20Liquidity/Change%20in%20State%20of%20Delivery.png) diff --git "a/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 03. \345\244\261\350\241\241\357\275\234Imbalance.md" "b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 03. \345\244\261\350\241\241\357\275\234Imbalance.md" new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e66d250 --- /dev/null +++ "b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 03. \345\244\261\350\241\241\357\275\234Imbalance.md" @@ -0,0 +1,97 @@ +# 失衡 / Imbalance + +> 我們提到過價格只會以流動性和失衡區作為目標進行位移，上一個章節我們詳細解釋了流動性，這裡我們要解釋失衡的概念。 + + + +- 當價格出現大幅度的位移（Displacement）時，我們可以認為此時聰明錢挾帶大量資金介入市場。 +- 大量資金進場時，由於價格出現大幅度的位移，會導致一部分限價掛單無法有效成交（Inefficiency），導致特定區域出現流動性流動性失衡（Inbalance）。 +- 當流動性出現失衡時，聰明錢會引導價格回到失衡區域將遺留的訂單成交（Rebalance）。 +- 當失衡區的流動性被 Rebalance 後，價格將延續原有的傳遞方向繼續運行。 + + + +這段敘述充分解釋了 ICT/SMC 中「價格只以流動性和失衡區作為目標進行位移」的觀念。 + +如果聰明錢想要獲得利潤，那麼只有兩個動作要做： + +1. 掠奪投機資金的停損訂單。 +2. 成交自己未能成交的訂單。 + + + +## 公允價值缺口 / Fair Value Gap（FVG） + +當三根連續的K線出現時，如果第一根K線和第三根K線的引線沒有完全重合，此時我們稱中間區域為**公允價值缺口（Fair Value Gap, FVG）**，這表明了價格在這個區間內存在失衡，演算法會在未來的某一個時刻引導價格回到此處進行 Rebalance。 + + + +> 補充：我們在圖表上會以（＋）代表看漲，（－）代表看跌。 +> +> 別名： +> +> - Imbalance (IMB)：失衡 +> - Inefficiency：低效 +> - Buyside Imbalance Sellside Inefficiency (BISI)：買方失衡賣方低效，即 +FVG。 +> - Sellside Imbalance Buyside inefficiency (SIBI)：賣方失衡買方低效，即 -FVG。 +> - Liquidity Void (LV)：流動性缺失。 +> - Liquidity Gap (LG)：流動性缺口。 + + + +![Fair Value Gap](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/03.%20Imbalance/Fair%20Value%20Gap.png) + +> FVG 的中線稱為 Consequent Encroachment（CE）。 + +## 反向公允價值缺口 / Inversion Fair Value Gap（IFVG） + +當價格經過 FVG 時直接進行吞噬，不對這個 FVG 進行 Rebalance。則此處的訂單流向會發生反轉，此時我們稱這個被吞噬的 FVG 為 + +**反向公允價值缺口（Inversion Fair Value Gap）**。一般來說 IFVG 的效力會比 FVG 更強。 + + + +![Inversion Fair Value Gap](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/03.%20Imbalance/Inversion%20Fair%20Value%20Gap.png) + +## 平衡價格區間 / Balance Price Range（BPR） + +當兩個反向的 FVG 重疊時，我們將重疊區域稱作平衡價格區間（Balance Price Range, BPR）。價格在進入 BPR 時應該快速做出反應並且出現強烈的 Displacement。 + +![Balance Price Range](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/03.%20Imbalance/Balance%20Price%20Range.png) + + + +## Institutional Order Flow Entry Drill (IOFED) + +當行情極度強勢時，可能會存在 FVG 不被有效填補的情況，我們稱為 IOFED。IOFED 的出現必須滿足以下兩個條件： + +- 行情出現大幅度 Displacement 並形成 FVG。 +- 價格快速回填 FVG，且**回填幅度不超過 FVG 的 50%**。 + + + +當這種價格行為出現時，我們稱其為 IOFED，意味著此時的價格傳遞**極度強勢**。 + +> 在某些比較嚴格的定義中，會認為必須在 FVG 形成後的下一根K線立即 Rebalance 並收針才能被稱為 IOFED。 + + + +![Institutional Order Flow Entry Drill](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/03.%20Imbalance/Institutional%20Order%20Flow%20Entry%20Drill.png) + + + +## 新週開盤缺口 / New Week Open Gap（NWOG） + +在股市、期貨交易市場中，週末一般是處於休市狀態的，因此週末的圖表會是靜止的。所以一但週末出現價格波動，圖表會無法及時顯示，造成週一的開盤價和前一週週五的收盤價出現落差。此時這個落差（也稱跳空）我們稱之為新週開盤缺口（New Week Open Gap）。 + +當 NWOG 出現時，此處的掛單同樣處於未成交狀態，因此也會存在失衡的情況。未來價格會傾向對 NWOG 進行 Rebalance。 + +由於加密貨幣市場是 24/7 處於開盤狀態的，這個現象在加密貨幣市場比較不常出現。但我們仍然可以透過觀察 CME 期貨缺口得到類似的效果。 + +> - CME 期貨圖表可以透過在 TradingView 搜尋 BTC1!（比特幣期貨）、ETH1!（以太幣期貨）的方式查詢。 +> - 類似的概念還有新日開盤缺口（New Day Open Gap, NDOG），但在加密貨幣市場中基本上用不到。 + +![New Week Open Gap](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/03.%20Imbalance/New%20Week%20Open%20Gap.png) + + + diff --git "a/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 04. \344\276\233\347\265\246\350\210\207\351\234\200\346\261\202\357\275\234Supply and Demand.md" "b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 04. \344\276\233\347\265\246\350\210\207\351\234\200\346\261\202\357\275\234Supply and Demand.md" new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f32027e --- /dev/null +++ "b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 04. \344\276\233\347\265\246\350\210\207\351\234\200\346\261\202\357\275\234Supply and Demand.md" @@ -0,0 +1,117 @@ +# 供給與需求 / Supply and Demand + +> 我們知道，機構在市場中的一舉一動會大幅影響市場走向。因此我們可以嘗試在圖表上尋找機構的足跡，跟隨機構的進場點位獲取利潤。 + + + +## 訂單塊 / Order Block （OB） + +Order Block (OB) 是指市場中機構資金或大資金玩家大規模下單的區域。這些區域通常標誌著市場價格的關鍵轉折點或延續點，因為機構投資者的資金量龐大，價格往往會在這些區域附近形成支撐或阻力。在圖表中尋找 OB 的方式如下： + +- 當價格創造出一個明顯的 Swing Point 後，價格往往會進行反轉並出現大幅度的 Displacement。 +- 此時我們可以標註出與價格傳遞方向相反的最後一根K線。 +- 此時這根 K 線所形成的區間就是我們想找的 Order Block。 + +![Order Block](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/04.%20Supply%20and%20Demand/Order%20Block.png) + +> 圖中標記了每一根 OB 和它們所對應的價格傳遞方向。簡單來說 OB 就是在價格移動後找出它的最後一根反向K線，那根K線就是我們要的 OB。 + + + +- 看跌的 OB 可以被視作供給（Supply）區間，看漲的 OB 可以被視作需求（Demand）區間。 +- OB 的畫法有很多種，有些人只會將 OB 的實體部分（不包含引線） 視作 OB，有些人則是將反向的連續 K 線都視作一整塊 OB。其實沒有絕對的對錯，重點還是看價格回到 OB 時的價格行為。 +- OB 的中線稱為 Mean Thershold（MT）。 + +> 就我個人而言，多數時候我只會將實體部分視作訂單塊的有效區間，除非實體過小或者價格回到訂單塊引線區域時出現強力的反彈。 + + + +訂單塊的形成原理如下：由於價格大幅移動時，我們可以視作聰明錢在此處介入市場。因此我們可以將價格大幅移動前的反向K線視作聰明錢進場前的操縱行為，目的是將價格移動到反向，取得一個相對便宜的籌碼，再將主要部位介入市場。因此我們可以將 OB 視為聰明錢進場時留下的足跡，當價格回到 OB 時，聰明錢會試圖在此處將未成交的訂單補齊，再次促使價格移動。 + +> 價格尊重 OB 且再次往反方向移動的行為稱為緩解（Mitigation）。 + + + +雖然 OB 很好找，看起來也很好用，但一個真正高效力的 OB 形成時應該滿足以下三個條件： + +- 完成 Liquidity Sweep：聰明錢進場前操縱價格的表現。 +- OB 形成後，出現大幅度的 Displacement，並且最好帶有 FVG：聰明錢確實介入市場的表現。 +- OB 形成後的 Displacement 最好同時完成 MSS：聰明錢確實介入市場的表現。 + +![The Real Order Block](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/04.%20Supply%20and%20Demand/The%20Real%20Order%20Block.png) + +> 高效力 OB 範例。 + + + +## 破壞塊 / Breaker Block（BB） + +當我們看到一個 OB 形成且成功出現 MSS，但之後這個 OB 卻不被尊重，且價格直接擊穿 OB 時，此處的訂單流向會發生反轉（類似 FVG 和 IFVG的關係）。看漲的 OB 將在之後轉為看跌 OB，看跌 OB 將在之後轉為看漲 OB。 + + + +![Breaker Block](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/04.%20Supply%20and%20Demand/Breaker%20Block.png) + + + +破壞塊的形成原理如下： + +- 當一個訂單塊出現，價格也隨即完成 MSS 時，如果這個 OB 沒有被尊重，意味著此時這段價格傳遞實際上是一段**「假的價格傳遞」**，目的在於誘騙投機資金跟隨趨勢的延續進場以便聰明錢進行 Order Paring。 +- 當價格破壞掉這個 OB 時，實際上此時出現的才是真正的價格傳遞方向。而當聰明錢引導價格走出真正的傳遞方向後，聰明錢需要**將前期誘騙投機資金所花費的成本收回**。 +- 因此價格會在走出真正的方向後回到破壞塊進行成本回收。 +- 此時對投機資金而言是唯一的解套機會，我們也可以在聰明錢回收成本時進場。 + + + +## 緩解塊 / Mitigation Block（MB） + +緩解塊的結構及原理和破壞塊極為類似，其區別在於破壞塊是由一個基礎的訂單塊經由 MSS 後再被反向吞噬，而緩解塊則是訂單塊形成後沒有 MSS，而是在走出 Failure Swing 後直接被反向吞噬。 + +> Failure Swing 指的是在順勢的波段中，未能成功走出 BOS 創造新高/低的行為，可以視作推動價格的力道正在衰減的一種表現。 + + + +![Breaker Block vs. Mitigation Block](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/04.%20Supply%20and%20Demand/Breaker%20Block%20vs.%20Mitigation%20Block.png) + + + +- Mitigation Block 與 Breaker Block 的形成原理相同，其差異只在於 Mitigation Block 被破壞前沒有做出 MSS。 +- 破壞塊能使用的地方，同樣都可以用緩解塊作替代（後面講解進場模型時會提到）。但效力方面 Breaker Block 會優於 Mitigation Block。 + + + +## 推進塊 / Propulsion Block（PB） + +當價格回到訂單塊並且出現反轉，隨即生成一個新的訂單塊時，我們稱之為推進塊（Propulsion Block, PB）。推進塊也被稱為訂單塊中的訂單塊，當一個推進塊出現時，可以理解成聰明錢在此處推動價格繼續前進。 + + + +![Propulsion Block](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/04.%20Supply%20and%20Demand/Propulsion%20Block.png) + + + +- 當價格接觸到推進塊時，價格不應該突破推進塊的 MT。 +- 當價格接觸到推進塊時，價格應該迅速離開推進塊。 + + + +## 拒絕塊 / Rejection Block（RB） + +當價格在接觸到關鍵水平（Key Level）時，如果價格此時收出長針，則我們會稱這個動作為拒絕（Rejection），表明此時價格離開此處的意圖極為強烈。這根針的引線部位則被稱為拒絕塊（Rejection Block）。 + + + +![Rejection Block](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/04.%20Supply%20and%20Demand/Rejection%20Block.png) + + + +## 重奪塊 / Reclaimed Block + +在前面我們提到過，訂單塊是聰明錢介入市場進行買入 / 賣出的痕跡。當市場結構出現反轉時，曾經用來買入的訂單塊可能會被拿來賣出，曾經用來賣出的訂單塊可能會被拿來買入。此時，我們將這種訂單塊稱為重奪塊（Reclaimed Block）。 + + + +![Reclaimed Block](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/04.%20Supply%20and%20Demand/Reclaimed%20Block.png) + +> 如果要更深入解釋 Reclaimed Block 的原理，則必須提及 MMXM（造市商模型）的概念。因此這邊如果有疑惑是正常的，關於 MMXM 的概念會在後續的篇幅中深入解釋。 + diff --git "a/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 05. \351\212\200\350\241\214\351\226\223\345\203\271\346\240\274\345\202\263\351\201\236\346\274\224\347\256\227\346\263\225\357\275\234Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm.md" "b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 05. \351\212\200\350\241\214\351\226\223\345\203\271\346\240\274\345\202\263\351\201\236\346\274\224\347\256\227\346\263\225\357\275\234Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm.md" new file mode 100644 index 0000000..63ccdbc --- /dev/null +++ "b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 05. \351\212\200\350\241\214\351\226\223\345\203\271\346\240\274\345\202\263\351\201\236\346\274\224\347\256\227\346\263\225\357\275\234Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm.md" @@ -0,0 +1,129 @@ +# 銀行間價格傳遞演算法 / IPDA + +## 前言 + +> 前面的章節所講解的都是 ICT/SMC 中最基礎的元素。從這個章節開始，我們將進入更核心、更著重於觀念上的理論。這些理論描述的部分內容可能很難在圖表上有一個標準化的形式，但對你的讀圖思維框架會起到非常重要的影響。如果你還沒將前面的內容搞懂，請務必先好好複習，循序漸進地學習。 + + + +價格的移動不依賴於支撐與阻力，所謂支撐與阻力只是市場的假象。市場中價格的所有行為都由一隻看不見的手在背後進行操縱，而這隻「手」被稱為 ***銀行間價格傳遞演算法（Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm, IPDA）***。 + + + +價格在傳遞時存在四種狀態，分別為： + +- **Expansion（擴張）** +- **Retracement（回撤）** +- **Consolidation（整理）** +- **Reversal（反轉）** + +價格在傳遞時有且僅有這四種狀態，且會在這四種狀態間轉移，每種狀態有其各自的特徵，且狀態轉移時通常伴隨著對關鍵價位或區間的接觸。 + + + +![IPDA State](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/05.%20Interbank%20Price%20Delivery%20Algorithm/IPDA%20State.png) + +> 附圖為四種狀態的轉換關係。 + + + +## Consolidation / 整理 + +- **Consolidation 是指價格在明確的交易區間（通道、箱體、三角等）內波動。** +- **表明價格沒有大幅上漲或下跌的意願。** +- **所有的行情都從震盪開啟。** +- **關注震盪區間的 EQ。** +- **在價格抵達 Discount 或者 SSL 被掠奪時尋找多單機會，並在價格抵達 Premium 或者 BSL 被掠奪時尋找空單機會。** + + + +![Consolidation](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/05.%20Interbank%20Price%20Delivery%20Algorithm/Consolidation.png) + +> 附圖為標準的 Consolidation。 + + + +- 我們可以在 Premium（EQ上方）或 BSL 被掠奪時尋找空單機會，在 Discount（EQ下方）或 SSL 被掠奪時尋找多單機會，跟隨造市商 Accumulation 的行為進行獲利。 + +- 同時也可以發現 Consolidation range 被跌破時價格出現了大幅度的 Displacement，可以視為一個典型的 Expansion。 + + + +## Expansion / 擴張 + +- **Expansion 指的是價格快速移動。** +- **當價格出現擴張時，代表造市商期望將該標的重新進行定價。** +- **Expansion 是 Price Delivery 最主要的部分。** +- **我們會期望 MSS 和 FVG 伴隨 Expansion 一同出現。** +- **留意 EQ 或 EQ 附近的 OB 做進場。** + + + +![Consolidation](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/05.%20Interbank%20Price%20Delivery%20Algorithm/Expansion.png) + +> 附圖和前一張圖是同一張，為標準的 Consolidation 接續 Expansion。 + + + +- 當價格接觸到 EQ ，或者尊重 EQ 附近的 OB 時，我們可以利用 EQ 附近的 OB 進場 +- 參與 Expansion 實際上是跟隨造市商進行 Price Delivery 的行為進行獲利。 + + + +## Retracement / 回撤 + +- **Retracement 指是價格回到最近創建的價格區間內。** +- **當價格回到近期價格區間時，表明造市商期望將價格重新定價至無法有效交易的公允價值缺口（FVG）。** +- **關注 FVG 進行進場。** +- **當價格回填 FVG 時，我們可以利用行情對 FVG 的填補程度判斷當前行情的強勢程度。** + + + +![Retracement](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/05.%20Interbank%20Price%20Delivery%20Algorithm/Retracement.png) + +> 附圖和前兩張圖是同一張，是一個典型的 Retracement。這裡可以看到價格在經歷擴張後展開低位震盪，隨即回撤至 FVG。 + + + +- 我們可以在尊重 FVG 時，利用 FVG 進場。 +- 在 Retracement 結束時參與市場實際上是跟隨造市商延續 Price Delivery 的行為進行獲利。 + + + +## Reversal / 反轉 + +- **反轉是指當前趨勢結束並且開始往反方向移動。** +- **當價格出現反轉時，表明造市商已經取得足夠的流動性，期望將價格往反方向移動尋求新的套利空間。** +- **關注 HTF POI 和 MSS/CISD。** + + + +![image-20240803055020917](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/05.%20Interbank%20Price%20Delivery%20Algorithm/Reversal.png) + +> 附圖和前三張圖是同一張，為標準的 Reversal 結構。價格在掠奪低點的 BSL （同時觸及日線圖上的 Rejection）後向上進行拉升出現 MSS，後續完全否定前方的下跌趨勢，展開新一輪的上漲。 + + + +- 我們可以利用結構的變化判斷 Reversal 是否發生。 +- 在確認 Reversal 出現時參與市場實際上是在跟隨期望 Price Delivery 的價格反轉。 +- 不要在價格未抵達 HTF POI 時賭行情的反轉。 + + + +## 回顧 + + + +![image-20240803055020917](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/05.%20Interbank%20Price%20Delivery%20Algorithm/IPDA-example.png) + +這裡我們回顧一下整張圖，觀察 IPDA 在進行 Price Delivery 時的細節。 + +1. 首先價格在區間開啟 Consolidation，在區間內來回進行波動進行吸籌。 +2. 價格在最後一次觸及 EQ 處的 OB 後開始 Expansion。 +3. 隨即再一次開始 Consolidation。 +4. 觸及 EQ 後開始 Retracement。 +5. Retracement 至 Expansion 時產生的 FVG，隨即再次下跌並進入再一次的 Consolidation。 +6. 最後將掠奪 H4 流動性並將價格傳遞至日線 POI。 +7. 進行 Reversal並產生 MSS。 +8. 開啟新一輪傳遞。 + diff --git "a/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 06. \344\272\244\346\230\223\345\215\200\351\226\223\357\275\234Dealing Range.md" "b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 06. \344\272\244\346\230\223\345\215\200\351\226\223\357\275\234Dealing Range.md" new file mode 100644 index 0000000..47e721e --- /dev/null +++ "b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 06. \344\272\244\346\230\223\345\215\200\351\226\223\357\275\234Dealing Range.md" @@ -0,0 +1,92 @@ +# 交易區間 / Dealing Range + +只要你能找到一個 Swing High 和 Swing Low，那這兩個點之間的價格就能被稱為一個「區間」。這對 Swing High 和 Swing Low 可以是任意兩個點，當然，它們最好是「有意義的」，特別是出現 MSS 後的 Swing Point。以下是幾個我們在交易中時常用到的 Swing Point： + + + +- 上週高點 (Previous Week High, PWH)、上週低點（Previous Week Low） +- 昨日高點 (Previous Day High, PDH)、昨日低點 (Previous Day Low, PDL) +- 週一高點 (Monday High)、週一低點 (Monday Low) +- 亞洲時段高點 (Asia High)、亞洲時段低點 (Asia Low) + +> 其實開盤價也可以作為交易 Setup 的一部分，這點會在之後 PO3 和 Time and Price 兩個章節詳細說明。 + + + +除了以上提到的幾個 Swing Point，任何你找得到的波段高低點都可以作為你的區間 Setup。還是那句話，只要你知道自己在幹嘛，你想怎麼做都可以。 + + + +![Range](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/06.%20Range/Range.png) + + + +## 溢價折價區陣列矩陣 / Premium and Discount Array Matrix（PDA Matrix） + +> 這個名字看上去挺唬人，但其實就是整合一下前面的東西，看完你就能理解了。 + + + +### 溢價折價區 / Premium and Discount (P/D) + + 當我們定義好 Range 後，我們可以使用斐波那契測量出區間中線（0.5），如果你有認真觀看我們前面的教學，你會知道區間的 0.5 那條線我們稱作 Equilibrium (EQ)。在 ICT/SMC 中，我們會將區間 EQ 以上的部分視作溢價區（Premium），區間 EQ 以下稱作折價區（Discount）。 + +當價格運行至 Premium 時，我們可以認定價格當前處於超買狀態，此時我們會傾向於尋找做空（short）機會；而當價格運行至 Discount 時，可以認定價格當前處於超買狀態，此時我們會傾向於尋找做多（long）機會。 + +![Premium and Discount](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/06.%20Range/Premium%20and%20Discount.png) + +此時，我們可以搭配前面學到的所有 FVG、OB、Liquidity，將它們和 Premium/Discount 整合在一起，會得到如下矩陣/陣列： + +![Premium and Discount](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/06.%20Range/PDA%20Matrix.png) + +> 我們會把 OB、FVG、Liquidity 這些可能提供反向力道的元素統稱為 PDA。 + +這張圖不需要記，你只需要知道當你拉出一個區間時，區間內會存在大量 PDA 由上到下排列，擁有這個概念就足夠了。PDA的概念十分重要，在接下來的章節中會被反覆提起。 + + + +## 內部流動性 & 外部流動性 / Internal Range Liquidity (IRL) & External Range Liquidity (ERL) + +- **外部流動性 / External Range Liquidity (ERL)**：指舊的高點或低點（old high、old low），可以簡單理解成 Liquidity。 +- **內部流動性 / Internal Range Liquidity (IRL)**：指價格傳遞時所創造的各種指 OB、FVG。 + +- **價格只會在 ERL 和 IRL 之間移動**，當價格在執行單方向傳遞時，會在拿到 ERL 後執行 Retracement，直到 IRL 被 rebalance/mitigate，這個行為稱為 **ERL to IRL**；隨後價格會立即反轉並繼續向原方向傳遞，嘗試拿掉 ERL，這個行為稱為 **IRL to ERL**。 + +- **Draw on Liquidity (DOL)**： + + - 因此，當價格在拿掉 ERL 之後，你會期望價格往回拿掉 IRL，這時你會關注圖表上的某個 IRL，你會認為該 IRL 存在對價格的吸引力，你期望價格回到那個 IRL；同理，當價格填補完 IRL 之後，你會期望某個 ERL 存在對價格的吸引力，你期望價格傳遞過去拿掉那個 ERL 延續價格傳遞。 + + - 此時，那個對價格存在吸引力的 PDA 就會是你認為的 DOL，DOL 應該是你在交易時最關注的元素，因為理論上價格對你的 DOL 的反應會直接影響你的所有決策。 + + > - 如果你經常看我畫圖，你幾乎不會在我的圖表上看到我標記出 DOL。但 DOL 的概念非常重要，你可以不把它畫出來，但這個概念你必須有。因為它在很多時候 DOL 會直接決定你的 Bias，這在後面會不斷地提及。 + > - 有一個類似的概念叫**感興趣的點位（Point of Interest, POI）**，基本上也是指你所關注的 PDA，在此不過多贅述。 + +- **機構訂單流（Institutional Order Flow, IOF）**：當價格在進行單方向傳遞時，同向的 PDA 會不斷地被尊重，反向的 PDA 會不斷地被突破。 + +![ERL & IRL](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/06.%20Range/ERL%20%26%20IRL.png) + +> 標準的機構訂單流和 ERL / IRL 的實例。 + + + +## 最佳進場區間 / Optimal Trade Entry（OTE） + +- 最佳進場區間（Optimal Trade Entry, OTE）是 ICT 中一種常見的輔助進場工具。它不能單獨使用，必須搭配前面提及的概念和元素。 +- OTE 指的是斐波那契 0.62 - 0.79 區間，其 EQ 為 0.705。當你在這個區間做進場時，通常可以拿到一個極為優秀的盈虧比。 +- OTE 也可以幫助你尋找你的出場目標位，當然，這一切都必須搭配 DOL、PDA 和前面提及的各種概念。 +- **最後，切記不要在脫離其他概念的場景下使用 OTE，它只是一個輔助工具。** + + + +![OTE](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/06.%20Range/OTE.png) + + + +- **1**：波段起點。 +- **0**：波段終點（Retracement 開始的 Swing Point）。 +- **0.5**：波段區間的 EQ。 +- **0.62 - 0.79**：**最佳進場區間，你可以關注此處的 PDA 做進場**。 +- **0.705**：**最佳進場區間的 EQ，你可以關注此處的 PDA 作進場**。 +- -0.27：你可以尋找此處的 PDA 作為你的第一目標位（TP1）。 +- -0.62：你可以尋找此處的 PDA 作為你的第二目標位（TP2）。 +- -1：你可以尋找此處的 PDA 作為你的第三目標位（TP3）。 \ No newline at end of file diff --git "a/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 07. \351\200\262\351\232\216\345\270\202\345\240\264\347\265\220\346\247\213\357\275\234Advanced Market Structure.md" "b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 07. \351\200\262\351\232\216\345\270\202\345\240\264\347\265\220\346\247\213\357\275\234Advanced Market Structure.md" new file mode 100644 index 0000000..96e75f7 --- /dev/null +++ "b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 07. \351\200\262\351\232\216\345\270\202\345\240\264\347\265\220\346\247\213\357\275\234Advanced Market Structure.md" @@ -0,0 +1,200 @@ +# 進階市場結構 / Advanced Market Structure + +這個章節的內容可能比較硬核，當中提到的所有概念都沒有一個圖表上的定式，但請務必努力嘗試理解，這個章節的內容是我認為的 ICT/SMC 精髓所在。當你完全理解這個章節的內容，你會對市場結構和價格傳遞有非常深刻的理解。 + + + +## 由上至下的分析 / Top-Down Analysis + +當我們專注於日內交易時，我們很常會將精力專注在十五分鐘級別圖表（M15）上，但如果我們此時想要獲得更宏觀的價格行為，僅僅關注於 M15 圖表上肯定是不夠的，我們會往更大級別的圖表（例如四小時級別圖表）上去做分析；而如果我們此時想解讀更細節的價格行為，顯然 M15 圖表也無法滿足我們，我們會去查看更小級別的圖表（例如一分鐘級別圖表）。 ICT/SMC 對各種時間級別的圖表關係做了定義，規範化了每一個時間級別所對應的高時框圖表及低時框圖表，以及在不同時框下你應該專注於做什麼。 + +> 名詞解釋： +> +> - M15：這裡的 "M" 指的是 "Minute"，加上"15"所指代的就是十五分鐘級別圖表。我們在簡寫時間級別時會以 "字母＋數字"來指代該時間級別。例如"H4"指的就是四小時（Hour-4），"W1"指的就是週線圖（Week-1）。 +> - LTF/MTF/HTF：低時框（Low Time Frame）／中時框（Middle Time Frame）／高時框（High Time Frame） + + + +**Time Frame Alignment** + +| | HTF | MTF | LTF | +| :--------------------------: | :-----: | :--: | :--: | +| 現貨交易（Position Trade） | Monthly | W1 | D1 | +| 波段交易（Swing Trade） | W1 | D1 | H4 | +| 日內交易（Intraday Trade） | D1 | H4 | M15 | +| 剝頭皮交易（Scalping Trade） | H4 | M15 | M1 | + +- **HTF**：你應該在此檢視市場結構，透過 ERL/IRL 尋找你的 DOL，建立你的 Bias。 +- **MTF**：你應該在此尋找交易機會。 +- **LTF**：你應該在此細化你的進場。 + + + +> 其實所謂的高中低時框關係並沒有定義的如此嚴格，只要你喜歡，你也可以在 H1 找交易機會並且在 M3 進場，但這必須建立在你對不同時框間的關係足夠了解的前提下。如果你對時空級別沒有一個清晰的認知，那就乖乖按上面的表格來，不要幹出在月線圖找Bias然後直接跳到一分線進場這種傻事。 + + + +## Power of Three (PO3) + +### 結構 + +PO3 是 ICT/SMC 中十分核心的理念，本質上你依靠 ICT/SMC 作出的所有交易都是 PO3。如果你問我 ICT/SMC 中最重要的概念是什麼，那我想我的答案就是 PO3。PO3 指的是價格的特定波動模式，主要分為以下三個階段： + + + +1. **積累階段（Accumulation Phase）**：市場進入一個偏向 Consolidation 的階段，聰明錢開始在特定的價格（不一定是區間）附近積累籌碼。此時的價格行為會偏向穩定，有時可能會創造出清晰的 Swing Point / Liquidity。 +2. **操縱階段（Manipulation Phase）**：當Accumulation Phase 結束後，聰明錢會將市場往反方向操縱（假動作），掠奪掉Accumulation Phase 時建立的Swing Point / Liquidity，其概念與第一章提到的**流動性掠奪**相同。這個階段的價格傳遞目的是為了誘騙投機資金追隨行情從而完成 Order Paring。 +3. **派發階段（Distribution Phase）**：當市場完成掠奪後，價格會迅速往真實的傳遞方向進行價格傳遞，此時通常會出現明確的 Liquidity Run / Expansion，最終將價格傳遞到 DOL。 + + + +![PO3](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/07.%20Advanced%20Market%20Structure/PO3.png) + + + +- 任何存在流動性掠奪的地方本質上都算是 PO3，只要你的交易和流動性掠奪有關，那你就是在對一個 PO3 做交易（或者說你的交易就是在期望市場形成一個完整的PO3 ）。 +- 你會期望在市場完成 Manipulation 後進場，並在 Distribution 完成時出場。 +- 對一個level 做出流動性掠奪（假突破）後收回該level 之上的行為也稱為**海龜湯（Turtle Soup）**，在流動性掠奪並收回後直接進場交易的行為稱為**海龜湯進場（Turtle Soup Entry）**。 +- 負責消化流動性的波段稱為**操縱腳（Manipulation Leg）**。 +- **在交易 PO3 時，你會希望當前時框上的 Manipulation 進入了 HTF DOL；或者換個角度也可以理解成當前時框 Liquidity Sweep 進入 DOL 的行為在 LTF 是個 PO3（這是你在進場前最重要的 checkpoint，任何進場都需要搭配 DOL）。** + + + +### 標準差 / Standard Deviation (STDV) + +- 標準差（Standard Deviation, STDV）是 ICT 中一種常見的輔助進場工具。它不能單獨使用，必須搭配前面提及的概念和元素。 +- STDV 也可以幫助你尋找你的出場目標位，當然，這一切都必須搭配 PO3、 DOL、PDA 和前面提及的各種概念。 +- **最後，切記不要在脫離其他概念的場景下使用 STDV，它只是一個輔助工具。** + + + +在 Manipulation Leg 上使用 STDV 可以幫助我們找出 PO3 的目標價位。以下是使用 STDV 輔助交易 PO3 的示意圖。 + +![STDV](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/07.%20Advanced%20Market%20Structure/STDV.png) + +***Manipulation Leg*** + +- **0**：Manipulation Leg 的起點。 + +- **0.5**：Manipulation Leg 的 EQ 。 + +- **1**：Manipulation Leg 的終點。 + + 一段合格的 Manipulation Leg 應該要消化你在 HTF 的 DOL。當你判斷 Manipulation 結束且演算法正要開始執行 Distribution 時，你要在此時去尋找 Manipulation Phase 創造的 PDA 嘗試進行 Turtle Soup。 + + 正如我們在講解 IPDA 時所提到的，當價格從 Consolidation 轉向 Expansion 時，你會希望在 Consolidation 的 EQ 作進場。因此在做 PO3 進場時最完美的情況會是在 Manipulation Leg 的 EQ 處尋找 PDA 進場。不過當 PO3 完成 Manipulation 時，通常價格會擴張的非常迅速，因此也不一定要強求自己在 0.5 進場。 + +***Distribution Phase*** + +- **-1**：Manipulation Leg 的 1:1 。 +- **-2 ~ -2.5（Retracement Range）**：價格傳遞的**回撤區間**。當價格傳遞到這個區間時，有很大的機率會發生回撤，當價格傳遞不夠強勢時也有可能在此處直接反轉。因此當你在交易 PO3 時，你應該考慮在此處尋找 PDA 進行部分停利（或至少設定保護停損/避險）。如果價格沒有在這個區間反轉，那說明此時價格傳遞非常強勢。 + +- **-3.5 ~ -4（Reversal Range）**：價格傳遞的**反轉區間**。當價格傳遞到這個區間時，有很大的機率會發生反轉，你應該考慮在此處尋找 PDA 出場所有部位。如果價格突破此處區間，那後面的漲/跌幅也跟你找到的 PO3 沒關係了（有可能是更高時框上的 Distribution 導致價格傳遞方向沒有在此處反轉）。 + +***STDV 進場步驟*** + +1. 找出 Manipulation Leg，收回時做進場（turtle soup）或者找 Manipulation 創造的 PDA 進場，最好是進在 EQ，但沒有的話也不用強求。 +2. 拉出 STDV，去 **-2 ~ -2.5** 的找 PDA 部分停利 or 全出。 +3. 如果價格有到 **-3.5 ~ -4** 的 PDA 那最好全出。 + +***交易實例*** + +![PO3 + STDV](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/07.%20Advanced%20Market%20Structure/PO3%20%2B%20STDV.png) + + + +### OHLC & OLHC + +實際上每一根 K 線在 LTF 都是一個完整的 PO3 結構（但不一定會提供你良好的交易機會），這也是所謂分型（Fractal）的概念。 + +- 當一根 K 線先向開盤價（Open）上方進行掠奪並創造高點（High），隨後向下派發創造低點（Low），我們就可以稱這個結構為 OHLC（Open/High/Low/Close）。 +- 當一根 K 線先向開盤價（Open）下方進行掠奪並創造低點（Low），隨後向上派發創造高點（High），我們就可以稱這個結構為 OLHC (Open/Low/High/Close)。 + + + +![OHLC & OLHC](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/07.%20Advanced%20Market%20Structure/OHLC%20%26%20OLHC.png) + + + +- 因此，你在交易 PO3 時實際上在 HTF 上看來你是在引線（Wick）處進場，如果你成功在 Distribution 完成時出場，那麼你的出場位置會在另一端的引線處。 +- 結合這個概念，你會發現所謂的 "Bias"，不只是單純地認為接下來的波段要漲還是跌。**你的 Bias 實際上意味著你認為 HTF 上的下一根 K 線應該收成陰線（Bearish Candlestick）還是陽線（Bullish Candlestick）**；你的 DOL 實際上意味著你認為 HTF 上的下一根 K 線的引線應該會插到哪裡。 +- 這也是我們在本章節開頭會先提及 Top-Down Analysis 的原因，正確的應用 HTF、LTF、分型等概念會讓你的交易系統更全面。如果你在交易時不去思考 HTF 正在發生什麼事，那你的視角很容易受限於當前級別結構，有可能在 HTF 上正在發生回撤，但你在 LTF 上卻認為這是一段反轉，從而錯失 HTF 上後續的趨勢延續。 + +### 日內PO3 / Daily PO3 + +從一開始我們就知道，ICT/SMC 本質上是在根據流動性進行交易（Liquidity Trade）。而一天當中，不同的交易時段實際上存在流動性差異。這也是 ICT/SMC 的應用場景普遍在日內交易以下的原因，因為我們可以透過一天當中的流動性變動進行獲利。在日內交易中，我們會經歷三個交易時段，這三個交易時段構成了一整天的 PO3 。 + + + +***亞洲交易時段（Asia Session）*** + +- **對應著一天當中的 Accumulaton。** +- 由香港、東京等地的機構主導。 +- 時段：08:00 ~ 14:00 (UTC+8) +- 亞洲殺戮區（Asia Killzone）: 08:00 ~ 10:00(UTC+8) +- 通常我們不會想在 Asia Session 進行交易，但我們會關注這段時間建立的 Accumulation 區間（Asia Range），並關注區間後續被掠奪的情況。 + +***倫敦交易時段（London Session）*** + +- **對應著一天當中的 Manipulation**。 +- 由以倫敦為首的歐洲機構主導。 +- 時段： + - 夏令時：15:00 ~ 23:00 (UTC+8)。 + - 冬令時：16:00 ~ 24:00 (UTC+8)。 +- **倫敦開盤殺戮區（London Open Killzone）**： + - 夏令時：15:00 ~ 18:00 (UTC+8)。 + - 冬令時：16:00 ~ 19:00 (UTC+8)。 +- **倫敦收盤殺戮區（London Close Killzone）**： + - 夏令時：21:00 ~ 23:00 (UTC+8)。 + - 冬令時：21:00 ~ 23:00 (UTC+8)。 +- 我們會在 London Session 關注 Asia Range 的掠奪情況。通常當時間從 Asia Session 進入 London Session 時，交易波動會開始變大，London Killzone 指的是開盤後的兩個小時和收盤前的兩個小時，此時交易量會達到頂峰，流動性充足，容易創造一天當中的最高點和最低點。 +- London Session 的市場會充斥著各種假動作（Judas Swing），根據我的經驗，在倫敦盤進行的交易最好傾向保守。 + +***紐約交易時段（New York Killzone）*** + +- **對應著一天當中的 Distribution**。 +- 由以華爾街為首的美國機構主導。 +- 時段： + - 夏令時：21:30 ~ 04:00 (UTC+8)。 + - 冬令時：22:30 ~ 05:00 (UTC+8)。 +- **紐約殺戮區（New York Killzone）**： + - 夏令時：21:30 ~ 23:30 (UTC+8)。 + - 冬令時：22:30 ~ 00:30 (UTC+8)。 +- 華爾街掌握著世界上最龐大的資金，因此 New York Session 是一天當中交易量/流動性的頂峰。通常 New York Session 在經歷完 London Manipulation 後，會推動價格進行單方面的傳遞，Distribution 完成當天價格的目標位，創造出當日的最高點或最低點。 +- New York Session 的任務是完成當日的 Distribution ，根據我的經驗，如果你在 London Session 或 New York Killzone拿到了一個絕佳的進場位置，可以嘗試在此時完成你的最終停利位。 + + + +關於日內 PO3 的內容有個概念就行了。London Session / New York Session 確實是一天當中最適合交易的時段，但在我看來加密貨幣的時區特性是非常混亂的，有時你也會看到 Asia Range 直接走 Expansion 然後接下來震盪一整天。這段內容最多就是讓你在進場時可以取得更多時區方面的共振，借此增強你交易時的信心和完善交易思路。不要簡單的認為你可以單憑這裡的內容，每天都在倫敦盤找到最優進場點一路拿到紐約盤派發頂點。 + + + +## 造市商模型 / Market Maker Model（MMXM） + +造市商模型（Market Maker Model）指的是造市商執行價格傳遞的基本運作結構，根據買入和賣出分為「造市商買入模型（Market Maker Buy Model, MMBM）」和「造市商賣出模型（Market Maker Sell Model, MMSM）」兩種，MMBM 和 MMSM 我們又會將他們統稱為 MMXM。 + + + +MMXM 基本圍繞著以下兩個重點描述價格傳遞： + +- ERL & IRL：價格只會在 ERL (Liquidity) 和 IRL (OB / FVG) 之間傳遞。 +- PO3：價格傳遞會經歷 Accumulation / Manipulation / Distribution 三個階段。 + +確保你完全理解這兩點，如果還沒理解那就回去複習，還是理解不了就直接來問我。 + + + +![MMXM](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/07.%20Advanced%20Market%20Structure/MMXM.jpg) + + + +- **Original Consolidation**：正如我們在 IPDA 所提到的，所有的價格傳遞都會從 Consolidation 狀態開始。 +- **Low Risk Buy (LRB)、Low Risk Sell (LRS)**：在價格傳遞反轉的初始階段（取得高時框流動性後）提供的交易機會，在此處參與價格傳遞可以獲得優秀的盈虧比。 +- **Accumulation**：PO3 中的積累吸籌階段。 +- **Smart Money Reversal（聰明錢反轉）**：低時框價格傳遞到高時框，取得高時框流動性後發生反轉的行為。 +- **Distribution**：價格在做完 SMR 後向高時框的 ERL 傳遞時經歷的第一次派發，此處主要會派發掉 SMR 後 LRS/LRB 的獲利籌碼。 +- **Re-Distribution（再派發）**：派發掉第一次 Distribution 的剩餘籌碼，並且將價格傳送到 STDV 2~2.5 區間，形成完整的 PO3。 + + + +MMXM 沒有固定的形式，附圖的 MMXM 只是示意圖。MMXM 描述的是 HTF IRL to ERL 在 LTF 上的表現形式，所有的 HTF IRL to ERL 都是 LTF MMXM。其核心概念在於**所有低時框的價格行為都服務於高時框，當低時框上的價格運行到高時框上的 PDA 時，所有低時框上的價格傳遞都將反轉成為高時框的流動性**。 diff --git "a/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 08. \351\200\262\345\240\264\357\275\234Entry.md" "b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 08. \351\200\262\345\240\264\357\275\234Entry.md" new file mode 100644 index 0000000..da01063 --- /dev/null +++ "b/content/tutorial/ict-smc/zh-TW/Chapter 08. \351\200\262\345\240\264\357\275\234Entry.md" @@ -0,0 +1,119 @@ +# 進場｜Entry + +首先，恭喜你成功的撐到了最後一個章節。之所以把「進場｜Entry」放在最後一個章節，是因為在此之前你應該要完全熟悉 ICT/SMC 的所有內容，才能有足夠的理論儲備支撐你的進場。盲目的照本宣科套用進場模型只會讓你被市場教訓得滿地找牙。實際上 ICT/SMC 的所有進場模型都只是將前面章節所提到的內容進行排列組合，因此如果你對前面的內容足夠熟悉，你甚至可以不需要閱讀這個章節。 + + + +## 設定｜Setup + +在套用進場模型前，你完成以下幾件事： + +1. 建立你的 Bias，你要知道此時你看漲 or 看跌。你必須帶著一個清晰的 Bias 進入市場，這個 Bias 的理由可能來自資料面、消息面、ERL & IRL 等。 +2. 在 **HTF** 上，找出你感興趣的點位（Point of Interest, POI），它可能是高時框上的某個 PDA。 +3. 等待 **MTF** 出現流動性掠奪，同時進入你找到的 HTF POI（Liquidity sweep into HTF POI）。當價格出現假突破但並未進入 HTF POI 時你不應該嘗試交易，你應該思考當下的價格行為究竟是流動性掠奪還是真突破。 +4. 在 **MTF** 上，界定出 IRL & ERL，此時你會有一個清晰的 DOL，你認為價格應該要去到那裡。 +5. 進入 **LTF**，根據剛才找到的 IRL & ERL，定義出明確的 MMXM 和 Dealing Range，明確自己正處於 MMXM 的那一個部分，同時觀察更細節的價格行為去盡量增強你的 Bias。 +6. 如果你看多，那就在 Discount 尋找進場機會；如果你看空，就在 Premium 尋找進場機會。 +7. 確保你正在執行一筆高盈虧比（盈虧比至少大於1）的交易，然後進場。 + + + +附圖是我在近期進行的一筆 BTC 空單策略，以它作為實例進行講解： + +![BTC Example](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/08.%20Entry/BTC%20Example.jpg) + +1. **HTF Bias**：價格在日線上出現 Liquidity Sweep 並進入週線看跌訂單塊同時出現強烈拒絕，同時此處恰好是 Dealing Range OTE，收線完美收在 OTE 內。故此，我們建立了一個清晰的看空 Bias，同時將週線訂單塊作為我們的 HTF POI。 + + 由於我們主要是利用週線訂單塊建立 Bias，此時我希望操作一筆 **Swing Trade**，我希望在週線拿到 Bias，在日線尋找 IRL & ERL 同時獲得 DOL，最後在四小時線進場。 + +2. **Liquidity Sweep into HTF POI**：日線上觀察到價格進行流動性掠奪，並且進入我們的週線訂單塊（HTF POI）。 + +3. **MTF IRL to ERL**：在日線上可以觀察到，價格在進入我們的 HTF POI 後出現強烈尊重， 同時圖表上左手邊存在一個長上引線訂單塊，我們此時可以將這段上引線視為一個重要的 IRL。而當價格尊重 IRL 後，下一步將會是往 ERL 進行價格傳遞。 + +4. **DOL**：此時在圖表上，我們明顯可以將日線 SSL 視為 MTF 上一個重要的 ERL，我們認為它將會在 IRL to ERL 的價格傳遞中被掠奪掉，同時價格將在掠奪同時進入另一個 HTF POI。由於週線上行情仍處於明顯的買方市場結構，保守起見，這裡我選擇最近的一個 PDA，也就是日線上的破壞塊作為我的 DOL。 + +5. **LTF MMXM**：四小時圖表上，拉出 STDV 後，我們很明顯正處於舊有 MMBM 末端，新的 MMSM 起點。價格先是走一個 Sell Curve，在拿掉了日線 SSL 後做 Smart Money Reversal 走出 Buy Curve，並且達到日線上的拒絕塊（此處細體標註為舊 MMBM，粗體標註為新 MMSM），醞釀新的 Smart Money Reversal。 + +6. 同時我們可以發現，價格進入 STDV 2.0-2.5 區間時，所表現出的價格行為是一個向上的 HRLR，這增強了我們的看空 Bias，我們預期這裡的 HRLR 產生的流動性將在之後的助力下跌形成 LRLR。 + +7. 拉出新的 STDV，保守起見我沒有回到 MTF 尋找 2.0-2.5 區間內的 PDA，而是使用剛才找到的日線破壞塊作為停利目標。 + +8. 在四小時線收線於日線拒絕塊下方後，我們可以發現此時價格在四小時圖表上形成 BPR，這表明此時上方流動性是平衡的，價格沒有理由向上回去測試 BPR，即便價格回去了也應該快速做出拒絕。且看漲 FVG 被吞噬對多頭也是一個不良的價格行為，種種跡象都加強了我們的看跌 Bias。 + +9. **進場**：綜上所述構成了我的空單 Setup，我選擇在此處進場 + + - 進場：68050（H4 Turtle Soup） + - 停利：52500（D1 Breaker）。 + - 停損：72300（前期 MMBM 的 STDV 2.5 之上）。 + +此時我們獲得了一筆 3.66 倍盈虧比的交易，算是一個還能接受的數字，可以果斷進場，事後價格也順利觸及停利位，是一筆還不錯的交易。 + + + +## 進場模型｜Entry Model + +在前面的七個章節中，你應該已經學會了很多東西。不過實際上你可能還是不知道怎麼進場。所謂的「進場模型」實際上就是在教你如何建構自己的進場 setup。這裡給到你的進場模型你當然可以直接照抄套用在實際交易上，不過你還是得理解為何這個模型選擇這麼做。當你理解進場模型後，實際上你的交易也不會需要依賴進場模型。 + +一個進場模型應該包括以下幾個步驟： + +1. 流動性掠奪 +2. 能確認反轉的價格行為（MSS/CISD） +3. 回撤到某個 PDA 且尊重時進場 + +> 一般來說 ICT 的進場模型都會限制使用時間（大多會限制進場時間在 London/NewYork Killzone），不過正如我前面提到的，加密貨幣的時區特性十分混亂，根據我的經驗，只要在流動性充足時進行交易都是可行的。 + +進場模型有非常多種，此處我只會簡單列舉幾種給你們體會一個進場模型是什麼樣子的，如果想學更多的話可以在社群裡詢問。 + +### ICT 2022 Model + +最為經典的進場模型，據 ICT 本人所述這是他給他女兒使用的交易模型，所有人都可以依靠這個模型在90天內實現財富自由。在這邊我只負責介紹模型，能不能真的自由就交給各位自行體會了。 + +#### setup + +1. Liquidity sweep +2. MSS +3. 尊重 FVG 時進場 +4. 停損設定在 Lquidity sweep 時的低點下方（或者可以更激進，直接設定在 FVG 下方或回撤至 FVG 時產生的低點下方） +5. 停利設定在你的 DOL（可以透過 STDV 取得，或你認為價格該去的某個 PDA） + +![ICT 2022 Model](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/08.%20Entry/ICT%202022%20Model.png) + +### 銀色子彈模型 / Silver Bullet Model + +基本和 2022 Model 一致，只是額外加上了時間上的嚴格限制。銀彈模型限制在以下三個時間進行交易： + +- 紐約上午：台北時間晚上 10:00 ~ 11:00 + +- 紐約下午：台北時間半夜 02:00 ~ 03:00 + +- 倫敦開盤：台北時間下午 03:00 ~ 04:00 + +> 以上時間為夏令時，冬令時自動往後延一小時。且銀彈模型限制交易時框在 M15 以下（通常是M5 ~ M1）。 +> +> 其實 ICT 大部分的進場模型都會建議將交易時間設定在 killzone，只是銀彈模型更嚴格一點。 + +### 獨角獸模型 / Unicorn Model + +和 2022 Model 類似，只是在進場時多加上一個 breaker。 + +#### setup + +1. Liquidity sweep +2. MSS +3. 尊重 FVG + Breaker 重疊的區域時進場 +4. 停損設定在 Lquidity sweep 時的低點下方（或者可以更激進，直接設定在 FVG 下方或回撤至 FVG + Breaker 時產生的低點下方） +5. 停利設定在你的 DOL（可以透過 STDV 取得，或你認為價格該去的某個 PDA） + +![Unnicorn Model](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/08.%20Entry/Unnicorn%20Model.png) + +### 週五模型 / TGIF Model + +TGIF的意思是「感謝上帝，今天是週五」（Thank God It's Friday, T.G.I.F）。這個模型也是專屬於週五的交易模型，其原理是在行情經歷一週的大幅上漲或下跌後，通常會在週五的時候在週線上出現 20~30% weekly range 幅度的回撤。使用這個模型需要以下幾點： + +1. 在週五進行交易。 +2. 當週的反向極點需要出現在週一或週二（如果這週都在漲，那週線低點應該出現在週一週二，反之亦然）。 +3. 週二週三週四的日線應該連續收出三根同向 K 線（如果這週都在漲，那週二週三週四的日線應該是連續收三根陽線）。 +4. 在低時框上（通常是 M15 以下）等待反轉價格行為（MSS / CISD）出現，並且等待回撤到你感興趣的 PDA 時進場（如果你想激進一點也可以不等回撤直接進）。 +5. 停利會是 weekly range 的 20-30%，停損就和 2022 Model 提到的一樣，看你想多激進。 + +![TGIF Model](/tutorial/ict-smc/img/08.%20Entry/TGIF%20Model.png) \ No newline at end of file