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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<meta name="description" content="Methodology page of Map Vizualisation of CO2 emissions by country towards their objectives to net-zero 2050">
<meta name="author" content="Luca Bron">
<title>Methodology – Objective net-zero 2050</title>
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<h1>Methodology</h1>
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<div class="prose">
<p><a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">United Nations Climate Change:</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 Parties at COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015 and entered into force on 4 November 2016. Its goal is to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels.</p>
<p>To achieve this long-term temperature goal, countries aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible to achieve a <em>climate neutral world by mid-century.</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>The methodology is simple. Given that all countries have signed the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement">Paris Agreement</a>*, global emissions should reach <em>net-zero by the middle of the 21st century.</em> Therefore, taking the change of CO2 emissions from 2015 to the last available data (currently 2024) and <em>linearly extrapolating</em> until 2050, we can have an idea if each country is on the right path to reach net-zero.</p>
<p>Some countries signed the agreement, but didn't pledge for net-zero at 2050, for example China (2060) and India (2070). But for the goal of 1.5 degree celsius to be reached, global net-zero needs to be reached in 2050 <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/">according to the IPCC.</a> Therefore, to facilitate the comprehension and the comparison of the data vizualisation, the carbon neutral target is 2050 for all countries.</p>
<h2>Why linear extrapolation and not another curve?</h2>
<p><b>Argument:</b> The curve should decrease faster and faster since the countries will need time to put their programmes into practice and have them deliver effects.</p>
<p><b>Counter-argument:</b> 2015 is not the starting point of environmental awareness. In fact, it happened during the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COP21">COP21</a> which was the 21st edition of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Climate_Change_conference">United Nations Climate Change conference</a>. States were aware of the problem long before. There is no excuse for not implementing their program earlier.<br>
Also, you may argue that the first gains will be easier to realise because there is a lot of <i>low hanging fruits to catch</i> and reducing the last bit of emissions will be harder.</p>
<p>I am thinking to add more complex models in the future (I am aware that there is some awesome predictive models out there), but I am worried that the complexity will decrease the user-experience.</p>
<h2>Carbon neutrality or Net zero?</h2>
<p>The two concepts are similar but carbon neutrality refers only to CO2 emissions while net zero includes all the greenhouse gases.<br>
I would rather provide net zero emissions since it makes for a more complete picture, but unfortunatly I haven't found country data for the period after 2018.<br>
Carbon sinks are included in the carbon data. <span class="footnote"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_parties_to_the_Paris_Agreement"><br>
* Iran, Libya and Yemen have signed but did not ratify it.</a></span></p>
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<h2>This site</h2>
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<li><a href="index.html">Data</a></li>
<li><a href="methodology.html">Methodology</a></li>
<li><a href="about.html">About</a></li>
<li><a href="https://github.com/owid/co2-data">Data source</a></li>
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<h2>Go further</h2>
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<li><a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions">More CO2 visualisations</a></li>
<li><a href="https://eciu.net/netzerotracker">Each country's pledge</a></li>
<li><a href="https://zerotracker.net/">Countries and companies</a></li>
<li><a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/">Climate Action Tracker</a></li>
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<cite>Data Source: <a href="https://github.com/owid/co2-data">Our World In Data</a> / Hannah Ritchie, Pablo Rosado and Max Roser (2023) – “CO2 and Greenhouse Gas Emissions” Published online at OurWorldInData.org.</cite>
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