data.json

{
  "meta": {
    "title": "Deal Docket",
    "subtitle": "AI-enabled service roll-ups · five-box thesis screen · illustrative pipeline",
    "asOf": "July 2026",
    "disclaimer": "Every company, financial figure, and deal note below is fictional — built to demonstrate a sourcing/screening framework, not to represent real targets, real data, or any employer's actual pipeline or thesis.",
    "sourcesUrl": "https://github.com/bakulbadwal/dealdocket/blob/main/SOURCES.md"
  },
  "thesis": {
    "headline": "Where PE actually fits in the AI stack isn't the labs — it's the fragmented, already-profitable service businesses that can use AI to expand margin on a cash-flow base that already exists.",
    "body": "Frontier labs, compute, and most AI-native applications are still venture and strategic-capital territory: pre-cash-flow, capital-intensive, or racing for share at the expense of margin. The roll-up opportunity sits one layer down — in ordinary SMB service businesses (bookkeeping, IT support, medical billing, home services) where AI isn't the product, it's a lever on an existing P&L. This screen sources and ranks targets against that specific thesis."
  },
  "framework": {
    "criteria": [
      {
        "key": "fragmentation",
        "label": "Market Fragmentation",
        "short": "Fragmentation",
        "description": "How many similar operators exist in the target's geography and niche, and how much of the market is still unconsolidated — the raw runway for a roll-up."
      },
      {
        "key": "unitEconomics",
        "label": "Unit Economics",
        "short": "Unit Economics",
        "description": "EBITDA margin quality, cash conversion, and revenue durability — the underwriting case independent of any AI story."
      },
      {
        "key": "aiLeverage",
        "label": "AI-Adoption Leverage",
        "short": "AI Leverage",
        "description": "How much margin AI can realistically unlock in this specific workflow — the thesis-specific multiplier, not a generic \"add AI\" hand-wave."
      },
      {
        "key": "moat",
        "label": "Moat & Stickiness",
        "short": "Moat",
        "description": "Contract structure, switching costs, and data lock-in that protect the business — and the roll-up — once AI raises the bar for competitors too."
      },
      {
        "key": "exitPath",
        "label": "Exit Path",
        "short": "Exit Path",
        "description": "Whether this is a platform asset that re-rates the whole roll-up, or an accretive bolt-on — and how comparable multiples are trending."
      }
    ]
  },
  "stages": [
    "Sourced",
    "Screening",
    "IOI",
    "LOI",
    "Diligence",
    "Closed",
    "Passed"
  ],
  "channels": [
    "Broker",
    "Direct Outreach",
    "Marketplace",
    "Referral",
    "Inbound"
  ],
  "verticals": [
    "IT Managed Services",
    "Bookkeeping & Accounting",
    "Marketing & Creative Agencies",
    "Home Services",
    "Staffing & Recruiting",
    "Legal Back-Office",
    "Medical Billing / RCM",
    "Logistics & Dispatch",
    "Customer Support / BPO",
    "Property Management"
  ],
  "deals": [
    {
      "id": "d01",
      "name": "Cascade IT Partners",
      "vertical": "IT Managed Services",
      "location": "Denver, CO",
      "stage": "Diligence",
      "channel": "Broker",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-02-03",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 4,
        "unitEconomics": 4,
        "aiLeverage": 5,
        "moat": 3,
        "exitPath": 4
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Regional MSP market with 40+ sub-scale competitors under $10M revenue — wide consolidation runway.",
        "unitEconomics": "21% EBITDA margin with 92% recurring-contract revenue.",
        "aiLeverage": "Tier-1 ticket triage and patch-management scripting are largely automatable — material headcount leverage.",
        "moat": "Multi-year MSAs but low switching costs once a contract lapses.",
        "exitPath": "Strong platform candidate — anchor asset for a regional MSP roll-up."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Lead candidate for the platform slot; diligence focused on customer concentration (top 5 = 38% of revenue).",
      "revenueUsd": 6100000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 1300000,
      "entryMultiple": 4.27,
      "askPriceUsd": 5550000,
      "employees": 34,
      "recurringPct": 87
    },
    {
      "id": "d02",
      "name": "Northgate Networks",
      "vertical": "IT Managed Services",
      "location": "Columbus, OH",
      "stage": "Screening",
      "channel": "Marketplace",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-04-11",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 4,
        "unitEconomics": 2,
        "aiLeverage": 4,
        "moat": 2,
        "exitPath": 3
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Same fragmented metro market as most sub-$5M MSPs.",
        "unitEconomics": "Margin thin for the vertical — largely project (non-recurring) revenue mix.",
        "aiLeverage": "Would benefit from automation, but the owner has resisted tooling changes historically.",
        "moat": "Month-to-month contracts, no lock-in.",
        "exitPath": "Bolt-on at best; not platform-grade on its own."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Only proceed as a bolt-on under an existing platform, not standalone.",
      "revenueUsd": 2800000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 410000,
      "entryMultiple": 3.45,
      "askPriceUsd": 1400000,
      "employees": 16,
      "recurringPct": 81
    },
    {
      "id": "d03",
      "name": "Anchor Point IT",
      "vertical": "IT Managed Services",
      "location": "Tampa, FL",
      "stage": "Passed",
      "channel": "Direct Outreach",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-01-22",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 3,
        "unitEconomics": 1,
        "aiLeverage": 3,
        "moat": 1,
        "exitPath": 2
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Fragmented market, but too small to move the needle alone.",
        "unitEconomics": "Sub-8% margin and one customer at 61% of revenue.",
        "aiLeverage": "Some ticket-automation upside, but not enough to fix the underlying margin problem.",
        "moat": "No contracts — pure handshake relationships.",
        "exitPath": "No credible path to platform or attractive bolt-on economics."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Passed — customer concentration and margin both fail the screen independent of AI story.",
      "revenueUsd": 1900000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 150000,
      "entryMultiple": 3.1,
      "askPriceUsd": 450000,
      "employees": 11,
      "recurringPct": 78
    },
    {
      "id": "d04",
      "name": "Ridgeline Bookkeeping Partners",
      "vertical": "Bookkeeping & Accounting",
      "location": "Boise, ID",
      "stage": "LOI",
      "channel": "Broker",
      "sourcedDate": "2025-11-14",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 5,
        "unitEconomics": 5,
        "aiLeverage": 5,
        "moat": 3,
        "exitPath": 5
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Bookkeeping is one of the most fragmented SMB service categories in the country.",
        "unitEconomics": "27% margin, 96% recurring monthly retainers, near-zero bad debt.",
        "aiLeverage": "Reconciliation and month-end close are highly automatable — the clearest AI-leverage case in the pipeline.",
        "moat": "Retainer relationships are sticky in practice, though contractually thin.",
        "exitPath": "Best platform candidate sourced to date — category leader multiple on exit."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Top-ranked deal in the pipeline. LOI signed; targeting close in Q4.",
      "revenueUsd": 3400000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 910000,
      "entryMultiple": 4.32,
      "askPriceUsd": 3950000,
      "employees": 31,
      "recurringPct": 94
    },
    {
      "id": "d05",
      "name": "Harborview Accounting Group",
      "vertical": "Bookkeeping & Accounting",
      "location": "Providence, RI",
      "stage": "Sourced",
      "channel": "Referral",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-05-02",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 4,
        "unitEconomics": 4,
        "aiLeverage": 4,
        "moat": 3,
        "exitPath": 3
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Dense regional market, similar dynamics to Ridgeline.",
        "unitEconomics": "Healthy margin, slightly smaller scale.",
        "aiLeverage": "Same close/reconciliation automation upside as the vertical broadly.",
        "moat": "Long-tenured client base, informal but sticky.",
        "exitPath": "Solid bolt-on under a bookkeeping platform."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Natural bolt-on once Ridgeline closes — same vertical, adjacent geography.",
      "revenueUsd": 2100000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 480000,
      "entryMultiple": 3.7,
      "askPriceUsd": 1800000,
      "employees": 19,
      "recurringPct": 91
    },
    {
      "id": "d06",
      "name": "Fieldstone CPA Services",
      "vertical": "Bookkeeping & Accounting",
      "location": "Wichita, KS",
      "stage": "IOI",
      "channel": "Broker",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-03-19",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 4,
        "unitEconomics": 4,
        "aiLeverage": 3,
        "moat": 4,
        "exitPath": 4
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Large fragmented Midwest market.",
        "unitEconomics": "Strong margin at meaningful scale.",
        "aiLeverage": "Heavier tax-compliance mix than pure bookkeeping — less automatable than reconciliation work.",
        "moat": "Engagement letters renew annually with high retention.",
        "exitPath": "Credible second platform if Ridgeline's geography doesn't extend this far."
      },
      "thesisNote": "IOI sent; evaluating as a second regional platform vs. bolt-on.",
      "revenueUsd": 5000000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 1050000,
      "entryMultiple": 4.38,
      "askPriceUsd": 4600000,
      "employees": 45,
      "recurringPct": 91
    },
    {
      "id": "d07",
      "name": "Lumen Creative Group",
      "vertical": "Marketing & Creative Agencies",
      "location": "Austin, TX",
      "stage": "Screening",
      "channel": "Inbound",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-04-28",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 3,
        "unitEconomics": 3,
        "aiLeverage": 3,
        "moat": 2,
        "exitPath": 2
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Agencies are fragmented, but differentiation is mostly reputational, not structural.",
        "unitEconomics": "Mid-teens margin, typical for the category.",
        "aiLeverage": "Generative tooling cuts production time, but also compresses the billable-hour model that funds the margin.",
        "moat": "Relationship-driven, minimal contractual lock-in.",
        "exitPath": "Key-person risk caps multiple; agency roll-ups have a mixed track record."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Watching, not pursuing — AI is double-edged here, not a clean lever.",
      "revenueUsd": 4600000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 690000,
      "entryMultiple": 3.35,
      "askPriceUsd": 2300000,
      "employees": 33,
      "recurringPct": 38
    },
    {
      "id": "d08",
      "name": "Brightline Digital",
      "vertical": "Marketing & Creative Agencies",
      "location": "Raleigh, NC",
      "stage": "Passed",
      "channel": "Marketplace",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-02-17",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 3,
        "unitEconomics": 1,
        "aiLeverage": 2,
        "moat": 1,
        "exitPath": 1
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Same fragmented agency landscape.",
        "unitEconomics": "Sub-7% margin, founder-dependent pricing.",
        "aiLeverage": "AI is more threat than lever — clients increasingly do this in-house with the same tools.",
        "moat": "No contracts, monthly churn.",
        "exitPath": "No platform or bolt-on case at this size and margin."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Passed — textbook example of AI eroding the exact service being sold.",
      "revenueUsd": 1200000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 80000,
      "entryMultiple": 3.1,
      "askPriceUsd": 250000,
      "employees": 9,
      "recurringPct": 32
    },
    {
      "id": "d09",
      "name": "Foundry Brand Partners",
      "vertical": "Marketing & Creative Agencies",
      "location": "Minneapolis, MN",
      "stage": "Sourced",
      "channel": "Direct Outreach",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-05-20",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 3,
        "unitEconomics": 3,
        "aiLeverage": 3,
        "moat": 2,
        "exitPath": 3
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Fragmented, mid-size regional player.",
        "unitEconomics": "Above-average margin for an agency.",
        "aiLeverage": "Some production-cost savings, unproven at scale.",
        "moat": "A few multi-year retainer clients provide partial stability.",
        "exitPath": "Only a bolt-on candidate, and a marginal one."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Low priority — sourced opportunistically, not pursuing actively.",
      "revenueUsd": 3000000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 510000,
      "entryMultiple": 3.49,
      "askPriceUsd": 1800000,
      "employees": 21,
      "recurringPct": 38
    },
    {
      "id": "d10",
      "name": "Summit Home Services",
      "vertical": "Home Services",
      "location": "Salt Lake City, UT",
      "stage": "Diligence",
      "channel": "Broker",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-01-09",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 5,
        "unitEconomics": 4,
        "aiLeverage": 3,
        "moat": 4,
        "exitPath": 5
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "HVAC/plumbing is the archetypal fragmented roll-up category — thousands of owner-operators nationally.",
        "unitEconomics": "20% margin with strong recurring maintenance-contract revenue.",
        "aiLeverage": "Dispatch routing and scheduling automation help, but the core service is still a truck and a technician.",
        "moat": "Long-tenured maintenance contracts and strong local brand density.",
        "exitPath": "Textbook home-services platform — well-precedented roll-up category with reliable multiple expansion."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Second platform slot; diligence nearly complete, financing being finalized.",
      "revenueUsd": 8200000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 1640000,
      "entryMultiple": 4.85,
      "askPriceUsd": 7950000,
      "employees": 63,
      "recurringPct": 33
    },
    {
      "id": "d11",
      "name": "GreenAcre Landscaping",
      "vertical": "Home Services",
      "location": "Charlotte, NC",
      "stage": "Screening",
      "channel": "Referral",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-04-06",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 4,
        "unitEconomics": 3,
        "aiLeverage": 3,
        "moat": 3,
        "exitPath": 3
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Highly fragmented, seasonal category.",
        "unitEconomics": "Margin depressed by seasonality and equipment capex.",
        "aiLeverage": "Route optimization is the main lever — moderate, not transformative.",
        "moat": "Recurring seasonal contracts provide some stickiness.",
        "exitPath": "Reasonable bolt-on under Summit's platform if geographies align."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Evaluating as a bolt-on to Summit rather than standalone.",
      "revenueUsd": 3100000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 520000,
      "entryMultiple": 3.72,
      "askPriceUsd": 1950000,
      "employees": 24,
      "recurringPct": 30
    },
    {
      "id": "d12",
      "name": "BluePeak Plumbing & Air",
      "vertical": "Home Services",
      "location": "Sacramento, CA",
      "stage": "Closed",
      "channel": "Broker",
      "sourcedDate": "2025-08-30",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 4,
        "unitEconomics": 4,
        "aiLeverage": 4,
        "moat": 4,
        "exitPath": 4
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Fragmented West Coast metro market.",
        "unitEconomics": "Consistent 20% margin over three years of financials.",
        "aiLeverage": "AI-assisted dispatch and inventory forecasting rolled out post-close.",
        "moat": "Membership-style maintenance plans drive repeat revenue.",
        "exitPath": "First platform closed in the vertical — now the integration template for future bolt-ons."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Closed. Now the reference case for underwriting future home-services deals.",
      "revenueUsd": 5500000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 1100000,
      "entryMultiple": 4.4,
      "askPriceUsd": 4850000,
      "employees": 42,
      "recurringPct": 33
    },
    {
      "id": "d13",
      "name": "Vantage Staffing Solutions",
      "vertical": "Staffing & Recruiting",
      "location": "Indianapolis, IN",
      "stage": "Sourced",
      "channel": "Marketplace",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-05-11",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 3,
        "unitEconomics": 2,
        "aiLeverage": 4,
        "moat": 2,
        "exitPath": 2
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Fragmented, but large national players compete aggressively on price.",
        "unitEconomics": "Thin staffing-industry margin, revenue-quality concerns from a few large accounts.",
        "aiLeverage": "AI-driven candidate matching and screening is a real efficiency lever here.",
        "moat": "Client contracts renew annually but are frequently rebid.",
        "exitPath": "Margin has to improve materially before this is more than a watch-list name."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Interesting AI-leverage story, but underwriting doesn't clear on margin yet.",
      "revenueUsd": 9500000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 950000,
      "entryMultiple": 3.46,
      "askPriceUsd": 3300000,
      "employees": 48,
      "recurringPct": 39
    },
    {
      "id": "d14",
      "name": "Crosswinds Recruiting",
      "vertical": "Staffing & Recruiting",
      "location": "Kansas City, MO",
      "stage": "IOI",
      "channel": "Broker",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-03-25",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 3,
        "unitEconomics": 3,
        "aiLeverage": 4,
        "moat": 2,
        "exitPath": 3
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Fragmented specialty-recruiting niche.",
        "unitEconomics": "Above-average margin for staffing given a specialty focus.",
        "aiLeverage": "Resume screening and pipeline scoring automation already partly implemented.",
        "moat": "Specialty expertise provides some differentiation, but relationships still walk out the door with recruiters.",
        "exitPath": "Reasonable bolt-on candidate; not platform-scale alone."
      },
      "thesisNote": "IOI sent; likely bolt-on rather than a standalone platform.",
      "revenueUsd": 4400000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 660000,
      "entryMultiple": 3.56,
      "askPriceUsd": 2350000,
      "employees": 22,
      "recurringPct": 42
    },
    {
      "id": "d15",
      "name": "Pinnacle Workforce Group",
      "vertical": "Staffing & Recruiting",
      "location": "Memphis, TN",
      "stage": "Passed",
      "channel": "Direct Outreach",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-02-08",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 2,
        "unitEconomics": 1,
        "aiLeverage": 3,
        "moat": 1,
        "exitPath": 1
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Commoditized light-industrial staffing, dominated by a few large regional players.",
        "unitEconomics": "Sub-industry-average margin with high customer turnover.",
        "aiLeverage": "Some scheduling automation upside, insufficient to offset structural margin pressure.",
        "moat": "No differentiation versus larger competitors.",
        "exitPath": "No credible platform or bolt-on economics."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Passed — commoditized segment, scale favors incumbents.",
      "revenueUsd": 2000000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 120000,
      "entryMultiple": 3.1,
      "askPriceUsd": 350000,
      "employees": 10,
      "recurringPct": 36
    },
    {
      "id": "d16",
      "name": "Meridian Legal Support",
      "vertical": "Legal Back-Office",
      "location": "Cleveland, OH",
      "stage": "LOI",
      "channel": "Referral",
      "sourcedDate": "2025-12-01",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 4,
        "unitEconomics": 5,
        "aiLeverage": 5,
        "moat": 4,
        "exitPath": 4
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Regional legal-support services remain highly fragmented outside the national e-discovery giants.",
        "unitEconomics": "25% margin with multi-year law-firm contracts.",
        "aiLeverage": "Document review and first-pass drafting are directly automatable — among the strongest AI-leverage cases sourced.",
        "moat": "Law-firm switching costs are high once workflows are integrated.",
        "exitPath": "Strong platform candidate for a legal-support roll-up."
      },
      "thesisNote": "LOI signed; the clearest AI-leverage-meets-moat combination in the pipeline.",
      "revenueUsd": 3800000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 950000,
      "entryMultiple": 4.34,
      "askPriceUsd": 4100000,
      "employees": 40,
      "recurringPct": 78
    },
    {
      "id": "d17",
      "name": "Sterling Paralegal Partners",
      "vertical": "Legal Back-Office",
      "location": "Richmond, VA",
      "stage": "Sourced",
      "channel": "Broker",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-04-30",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 4,
        "unitEconomics": 4,
        "aiLeverage": 4,
        "moat": 3,
        "exitPath": 3
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Similar fragmentation profile to Meridian, smaller scale.",
        "unitEconomics": "Strong margin, slightly less diversified client base.",
        "aiLeverage": "Same document-automation upside as the vertical broadly.",
        "moat": "Decent retention, less entrenched than Meridian's workflows.",
        "exitPath": "Natural bolt-on under Meridian if the LOI closes."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Queued as the first bolt-on candidate once Meridian closes.",
      "revenueUsd": 2400000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 530000,
      "entryMultiple": 3.72,
      "askPriceUsd": 1950000,
      "employees": 25,
      "recurringPct": 75
    },
    {
      "id": "d18",
      "name": "Barrister Support Services",
      "vertical": "Legal Back-Office",
      "location": "Albany, NY",
      "stage": "Screening",
      "channel": "Marketplace",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-05-15",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 3,
        "unitEconomics": 3,
        "aiLeverage": 3,
        "moat": 2,
        "exitPath": 2
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Small, fragmented local market.",
        "unitEconomics": "Below-average margin for the vertical.",
        "aiLeverage": "Automation upside exists but is unproven at this scale.",
        "moat": "Short-term engagements, limited lock-in.",
        "exitPath": "Too small to be more than an opportunistic tuck-in."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Low priority; screening only if valuation is unusually favorable.",
      "revenueUsd": 1600000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 260000,
      "entryMultiple": 3.17,
      "askPriceUsd": 800000,
      "employees": 17,
      "recurringPct": 72
    },
    {
      "id": "d19",
      "name": "Claritas Medical Billing",
      "vertical": "Medical Billing / RCM",
      "location": "Nashville, TN",
      "stage": "Diligence",
      "channel": "Broker",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-01-27",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 4,
        "unitEconomics": 5,
        "aiLeverage": 5,
        "moat": 4,
        "exitPath": 5
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "RCM remains fragmented below the large national platforms.",
        "unitEconomics": "23.5% margin with highly recurring, contracted revenue tied to claims volume.",
        "aiLeverage": "Claims-scrubbing and denial-management automation directly reduce headcount cost per claim.",
        "moat": "EHR integrations create real switching costs once embedded.",
        "exitPath": "Strongest platform candidate in the entire pipeline on a blended basis."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Highest composite score sourced to date; diligence prioritized accordingly.",
      "revenueUsd": 6800000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 1600000,
      "entryMultiple": 4.83,
      "askPriceUsd": 7750000,
      "employees": 65,
      "recurringPct": 92
    },
    {
      "id": "d20",
      "name": "Riverbend RCM Partners",
      "vertical": "Medical Billing / RCM",
      "location": "Louisville, KY",
      "stage": "IOI",
      "channel": "Referral",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-03-02",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 4,
        "unitEconomics": 4,
        "aiLeverage": 4,
        "moat": 3,
        "exitPath": 4
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Same fragmented regional RCM dynamic.",
        "unitEconomics": "Strong, slightly smaller-scale margin profile.",
        "aiLeverage": "Comparable automation upside to Claritas.",
        "moat": "Fewer EHR integrations than Claritas — somewhat less locked in.",
        "exitPath": "Credible bolt-on, or a second platform in a non-overlapping region."
      },
      "thesisNote": "IOI sent; evaluating alongside Claritas for geographic overlap.",
      "revenueUsd": 4100000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 860000,
      "entryMultiple": 4.08,
      "askPriceUsd": 3500000,
      "employees": 39,
      "recurringPct": 89
    },
    {
      "id": "d21",
      "name": "Coastal Health Billing",
      "vertical": "Medical Billing / RCM",
      "location": "Jacksonville, FL",
      "stage": "Sourced",
      "channel": "Direct Outreach",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-05-28",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 3,
        "unitEconomics": 3,
        "aiLeverage": 4,
        "moat": 2,
        "exitPath": 3
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Smaller regional player in a fragmented category.",
        "unitEconomics": "Below Claritas/Riverbend on margin.",
        "aiLeverage": "Same automation levers apply, less mature back office to build on.",
        "moat": "Limited EHR integration depth so far.",
        "exitPath": "Plausible bolt-on once a platform closes in-region."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Early-stage; revisit once Claritas or Riverbend closes.",
      "revenueUsd": 2500000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 400000,
      "entryMultiple": 3.45,
      "askPriceUsd": 1400000,
      "employees": 24,
      "recurringPct": 86
    },
    {
      "id": "d22",
      "name": "Ironhide Freight Dispatch",
      "vertical": "Logistics & Dispatch",
      "location": "Fort Worth, TX",
      "stage": "Screening",
      "channel": "Marketplace",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-04-14",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 3,
        "unitEconomics": 2,
        "aiLeverage": 4,
        "moat": 2,
        "exitPath": 2
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Regional dispatch/brokerage market, moderately fragmented.",
        "unitEconomics": "Thin freight-brokerage margin, rate-cycle sensitive.",
        "aiLeverage": "Load-matching and routing automation is a genuine lever.",
        "moat": "Carrier and shipper relationships have limited lock-in.",
        "exitPath": "Cyclicality makes this a difficult standalone underwrite."
      },
      "thesisNote": "AI story is real but margin cyclicality is the bigger risk factor.",
      "revenueUsd": 7000000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 840000,
      "entryMultiple": 3.41,
      "askPriceUsd": 2850000,
      "employees": 44,
      "recurringPct": 55
    },
    {
      "id": "d23",
      "name": "Lakeshore Last-Mile",
      "vertical": "Logistics & Dispatch",
      "location": "Milwaukee, WI",
      "stage": "Sourced",
      "channel": "Broker",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-05-06",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 3,
        "unitEconomics": 2,
        "aiLeverage": 4,
        "moat": 2,
        "exitPath": 3
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Fragmented last-mile subcontractor market.",
        "unitEconomics": "Similar thin-margin profile to Ironhide.",
        "aiLeverage": "Route optimization directly cuts fuel and labor cost per stop.",
        "moat": "Contracts renew annually with a handful of retail clients.",
        "exitPath": "Only interesting as a bolt-on if a logistics platform materializes."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Parked — not pursuing without a platform anchor first.",
      "revenueUsd": 5200000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 620000,
      "entryMultiple": 3.54,
      "askPriceUsd": 2200000,
      "employees": 32,
      "recurringPct": 55
    },
    {
      "id": "d24",
      "name": "Redline Logistics Co.",
      "vertical": "Logistics & Dispatch",
      "location": "Oklahoma City, OK",
      "stage": "Passed",
      "channel": "Inbound",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-02-25",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 2,
        "unitEconomics": 1,
        "aiLeverage": 3,
        "moat": 1,
        "exitPath": 1
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Small local player, limited consolidation impact alone.",
        "unitEconomics": "One customer is 74% of revenue at a 5% margin.",
        "aiLeverage": "Automation can't fix a single-customer concentration problem.",
        "moat": "No contract with the anchor customer — pure key-relationship risk.",
        "exitPath": "No viable path given concentration risk."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Passed — concentration risk disqualifies regardless of AI story.",
      "revenueUsd": 1800000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 90000,
      "entryMultiple": 3.1,
      "askPriceUsd": 300000,
      "employees": 11,
      "recurringPct": 52
    },
    {
      "id": "d25",
      "name": "Northstar Support Partners",
      "vertical": "Customer Support / BPO",
      "location": "Spokane, WA",
      "stage": "LOI",
      "channel": "Broker",
      "sourcedDate": "2025-10-19",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 3,
        "unitEconomics": 3,
        "aiLeverage": 5,
        "moat": 3,
        "exitPath": 4
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Mid-market BPO space has room below the handful of national giants.",
        "unitEconomics": "Solid margin for the category, though seat-based pricing caps upside.",
        "aiLeverage": "AI-agent deflection of tier-1 contact volume is the entire investment thesis for this deal.",
        "moat": "Multi-year contracts with enterprise clients provide real stickiness.",
        "exitPath": "Platform-caliber if the AI-deflection roadmap executes as modeled."
      },
      "thesisNote": "LOI signed; value creation plan is built entirely around the AI-deflection roadmap.",
      "revenueUsd": 10200000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 1530000,
      "entryMultiple": 4.36,
      "askPriceUsd": 6650000,
      "employees": 146,
      "recurringPct": 80
    },
    {
      "id": "d26",
      "name": "Beacon BPO Group",
      "vertical": "Customer Support / BPO",
      "location": "Tucson, AZ",
      "stage": "Sourced",
      "channel": "Marketplace",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-05-09",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 3,
        "unitEconomics": 2,
        "aiLeverage": 5,
        "moat": 2,
        "exitPath": 3
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Similar fragmented mid-market BPO dynamic to Northstar.",
        "unitEconomics": "Lower margin than Northstar, more seasonal client mix.",
        "aiLeverage": "Same deflection thesis applies, less mature contact-center tooling to build on.",
        "moat": "Shorter contract terms than Northstar.",
        "exitPath": "Reasonable bolt-on once Northstar's playbook is proven."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Hold until Northstar's AI-deflection roadmap shows results.",
      "revenueUsd": 6500000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 780000,
      "entryMultiple": 3.61,
      "askPriceUsd": 2800000,
      "employees": 93,
      "recurringPct": 77
    },
    {
      "id": "d27",
      "name": "Clearline Contact Solutions",
      "vertical": "Customer Support / BPO",
      "location": "El Paso, TX",
      "stage": "Screening",
      "channel": "Direct Outreach",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-04-22",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 3,
        "unitEconomics": 2,
        "aiLeverage": 4,
        "moat": 2,
        "exitPath": 2
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Smaller regional BPO, fragmented category.",
        "unitEconomics": "Below-average margin even for the category.",
        "aiLeverage": "Deflection upside exists but client contracts restrict tooling changes.",
        "moat": "Weak lock-in, frequent client rebids.",
        "exitPath": "Not platform-grade; marginal bolt-on at best."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Low priority; contractual restrictions blunt the AI-leverage case.",
      "revenueUsd": 3900000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 430000,
      "entryMultiple": 3.24,
      "askPriceUsd": 1400000,
      "employees": 56,
      "recurringPct": 77
    },
    {
      "id": "d28",
      "name": "Willowbrook Property Group",
      "vertical": "Property Management",
      "location": "Des Moines, IA",
      "stage": "Sourced",
      "channel": "Referral",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-05-24",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 4,
        "unitEconomics": 4,
        "aiLeverage": 3,
        "moat": 4,
        "exitPath": 3
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Fragmented regional property-management market.",
        "unitEconomics": "Strong margin with recurring management-fee revenue.",
        "aiLeverage": "Tenant-communication and maintenance-dispatch automation help, but leasing still requires local presence.",
        "moat": "Multi-year management agreements with owners are hard to dislodge.",
        "exitPath": "Reasonable platform candidate, though less AI-differentiated than the top names in the pipeline."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Solid fundamentals; AI story is more incremental than transformative here.",
      "revenueUsd": 4800000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 960000,
      "entryMultiple": 4.12,
      "askPriceUsd": 3950000,
      "employees": 40,
      "recurringPct": 93
    },
    {
      "id": "d29",
      "name": "Cornerstone Property Partners",
      "vertical": "Property Management",
      "location": "Omaha, NE",
      "stage": "Screening",
      "channel": "Broker",
      "sourcedDate": "2026-04-17",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 4,
        "unitEconomics": 3,
        "aiLeverage": 3,
        "moat": 3,
        "exitPath": 3
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Same fragmented category as Willowbrook, adjacent geography.",
        "unitEconomics": "Slightly thinner margin, smaller portfolio.",
        "aiLeverage": "Comparable automation profile to Willowbrook.",
        "moat": "Decent owner-contract retention.",
        "exitPath": "Natural bolt-on if Willowbrook or Highland closes first."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Queued as a bolt-on candidate pending a platform close in the vertical.",
      "revenueUsd": 3200000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 580000,
      "entryMultiple": 3.74,
      "askPriceUsd": 2150000,
      "employees": 27,
      "recurringPct": 90
    },
    {
      "id": "d30",
      "name": "Highland Residential Management",
      "vertical": "Property Management",
      "location": "Boise, ID",
      "stage": "Closed",
      "channel": "Broker",
      "sourcedDate": "2025-09-12",
      "scores": {
        "fragmentation": 4,
        "unitEconomics": 4,
        "aiLeverage": 4,
        "moat": 4,
        "exitPath": 4
      },
      "rationale": {
        "fragmentation": "Fragmented mountain-west property-management market.",
        "unitEconomics": "Strongest margin sourced in the vertical.",
        "aiLeverage": "AI-assisted leasing inquiries and maintenance triage implemented post-close.",
        "moat": "High owner-retention rate pre-close, improved further with integrated tooling.",
        "exitPath": "Second platform closed — anchor for future property-management bolt-ons."
      },
      "thesisNote": "Closed. Reference case alongside BluePeak for underwriting future deals.",
      "revenueUsd": 6000000,
      "ebitdaUsd": 1320000,
      "entryMultiple": 4.49,
      "askPriceUsd": 5950000,
      "employees": 50,
      "recurringPct": 93
    }
  ],
  "verticalContext": {
    "IT Managed Services": {
      "automatableCostShare": 20,
      "automatableNote": "Tier-1 ticket triage, patch management, monitoring escalation.",
      "basis": "sourced",
      "source": "Census Service Annual Survey 2022 (payroll ÷ revenue, NAICS 5415) × share of that payroll in LLM-exposed tasks (Eloundou et al., Science 2024, weighted by BLS OEWS May 2025 staffing for NAICS 5415). See SOURCES.md.",
      "asOf": "2022 payroll and revenue; May 2025 staffing",
      "derivation": {
        "naicsProxy": "5415 Computer Systems Design and Related Services",
        "payrollShareOfRevenuePct": 40.2,
        "exposedShareOfPayrollPct": 50.5,
        "result": "40.2% × 50.5% = 20.3% → 20",
        "priorEstimate": 18
      }
    },
    "Bookkeeping & Accounting": {
      "automatableCostShare": 22,
      "automatableNote": "Transaction categorisation, reconciliation, month-end close prep.",
      "basis": "sourced",
      "source": "Census Service Annual Survey 2022 (payroll ÷ revenue, NAICS 5412) × share of that payroll in LLM-exposed tasks (Eloundou et al., Science 2024, weighted by BLS OEWS May 2025 staffing for NAICS 5412). See SOURCES.md.",
      "asOf": "2022 payroll and revenue; May 2025 staffing",
      "derivation": {
        "naicsProxy": "5412 Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and Payroll Services",
        "payrollShareOfRevenuePct": 43.9,
        "exposedShareOfPayrollPct": 49.5,
        "result": "43.9% × 49.5% = 21.7% → 22",
        "priorEstimate": 24
      }
    },
    "Marketing & Creative Agencies": {
      "automatableCostShare": 15,
      "automatableNote": "Asset variation, copy drafting, reporting packs.",
      "basis": "assumption",
      "source": null,
      "asOf": null,
      "assumptionNote": "53% of NAICS 5418 payroll is in LLM-exposed tasks, but no citable payroll-to-revenue ratio was retrievable; 15% implies payroll ≈ 28% of revenue."
    },
    "Home Services": {
      "automatableCostShare": 8,
      "automatableNote": "Dispatch, scheduling, intake calls. The work itself stays physical.",
      "basis": "assumption",
      "source": null,
      "asOf": null,
      "assumptionNote": "NAICS 238220 staffing puts only 21% of payroll in LLM-exposed tasks; 8% implies payroll ≈ 38% of revenue. Construction is outside the Service Annual Survey, so the payroll ratio needs the Economic Census."
    },
    "Staffing & Recruiting": {
      "automatableCostShare": 16,
      "automatableNote": "Sourcing, resume screening, first-pass qualification.",
      "basis": "assumption",
      "source": null,
      "asOf": null,
      "assumptionNote": "34% of NAICS 5613 payroll is in LLM-exposed tasks; 16% implies payroll ≈ 47% of revenue. No citable payroll-to-revenue ratio retrieved."
    },
    "Legal Back-Office": {
      "automatableCostShare": 19,
      "automatableNote": "Document review, intake, standard drafting.",
      "basis": "sourced",
      "source": "Census Service Annual Survey 2022 (payroll ÷ revenue, NAICS 5411) × share of that payroll in LLM-exposed tasks (Eloundou et al., Science 2024, weighted by BLS OEWS May 2025 staffing for NAICS 5411). See SOURCES.md.",
      "asOf": "2022 payroll and revenue; May 2025 staffing",
      "derivation": {
        "naicsProxy": "5411 Legal Services",
        "payrollShareOfRevenuePct": 37.7,
        "exposedShareOfPayrollPct": 49.1,
        "result": "37.7% × 49.1% = 18.5% → 19",
        "priorEstimate": 26
      }
    },
    "Medical Billing / RCM": {
      "automatableCostShare": 28,
      "automatableNote": "Claim scrubbing, coding suggestion, denial triage.",
      "basis": "assumption",
      "source": null,
      "asOf": null,
      "assumptionNote": "Billing offices sit in NAICS 541219 (inside 5412); applying the 5412 inputs would give 22%, but that staffing mix is CPA-heavy, so it is not used. 28% implies payroll ≈ 57% of revenue."
    },
    "Logistics & Dispatch": {
      "automatableCostShare": 13,
      "automatableNote": "Route optimisation, track-and-trace, exception handling.",
      "basis": "assumption",
      "source": null,
      "asOf": null,
      "assumptionNote": "Likely high for brokerage-style firms: freight arrangement (NAICS 4885) revenue includes purchased transport, so payroll is a small share of it. 43% of payroll is LLM-exposed; 13% implies payroll ≈ 30% of revenue."
    },
    "Customer Support / BPO": {
      "automatableCostShare": 32,
      "automatableNote": "Tier-1 deflection and assisted resolution.",
      "basis": "assumption",
      "source": null,
      "asOf": null,
      "assumptionNote": "53% of NAICS 5614 payroll is LLM-exposed; 32% implies payroll ≈ 60% of revenue, plausible for contact centres but not yet cited."
    },
    "Property Management": {
      "automatableCostShare": 15,
      "automatableNote": "Maintenance coordination, tenant comms, renewal admin.",
      "basis": "assumption",
      "source": null,
      "asOf": null,
      "assumptionNote": "38% of NAICS 531 payroll is LLM-exposed; 15% implies payroll ≈ 40% of revenue. No citable payroll-to-revenue ratio retrieved."
    }
  },
  "rollupModel": {
    "defaultCapturePct": 30,
    "defaultOrganicPct": 12,
    "exitMultipleBase": 5.0,
    "exitMultiplePerMillionEbitda": 0.25,
    "exitMultipleCap": 8.5,
    "note": "All-equity, no leverage. Exit multiple defaults to a size-based scale premium over the blended entry multiple; override with the slider."
  }
}