diff --git a/SWEET_python/city_params.py b/SWEET_python/city_params.py index 5c0b7a2..a7b7e8f 100644 --- a/SWEET_python/city_params.py +++ b/SWEET_python/city_params.py @@ -23,6 +23,7 @@ from SWEET_python.singapore_k import compute_singapore_k import SWEET_python.defaults_2019 as defaults_2019 import SWEET_python.mcf as mcf_defaults +from SWEET_python.population import average_growth_rates, country_population_series import psycopg2 from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor from sqlalchemy import create_engine, text @@ -207,6 +208,63 @@ def _resolve_gas_capture(flag, site_type, canonical_row, time_series_rows, years # Cities can have multiple sets of CityParameters, one for each scenario. # Sets of CityParameters can have one or more landfills, dumpsites, waste to energy, etc. # Even for modeling a single landfill, City and CityParameters classes need to be used. +#: The UN city file behind the cities table's two growth columns (World Urbanization +#: Prospects 2018, cities over 300,000) lists places of this size and up. Below it, a +#: city's columns are the nearest listed city's, which can be another city altogether. +UN_LISTED_CITY_MIN_POPULATION = 300_000 +#: A listed city's yearly growth multiplier outside this band is a data error, not a +#: city: the city's own population mixed with a larger agglomeration's (Manila City's +#: 2020-2035 rate came out at +16.9% a year). +PLAUSIBLE_CITY_GROWTH = (0.98, 1.07) + + +def _city_growth(iso3, anchor_year, population, city_historic, city_future): + """How a city's waste grows: ``(population_series, growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future)``. + + A UN-listed city with plausible rates keeps its own two rates, compounded as before, + because a big city outgrows its country. Every other city grows with its country's + population year by year (_country_growth). + """ + low, high = PLAUSIBLE_CITY_GROWTH + listed = ( + population is not None + and not pd.isna(population) + and population >= UN_LISTED_CITY_MIN_POPULATION + and all(not pd.isna(r) and low <= r <= high for r in (city_historic, city_future)) + ) + if listed: + return None, city_historic, city_future + return _country_growth(iso3, anchor_year, city_historic, city_future) + + +def _iso3_for(country): + """The ISO3 code for a country code or name. Raises LookupError if there is none. + + An exact match first, because the fuzzy search ranks subdivisions: it resolves + "MUS" to Turkey, whose province Mus matches, rather than Mauritius. + """ + try: + return pycountry.countries.lookup(country).alpha_3 + except LookupError: + return pycountry.countries.search_fuzzy(country)[0].alpha_3 + + +def _country_growth(iso3, anchor_year, fallback_historic, fallback_future): + """The growth for a place in ``iso3``: its country's population year by year. + + Returns ``(population_series, growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future)``. The + series is what SWEET applies (class_defs.growth_factors_for_years); the two rates + are its averages around ``anchor_year`` (population.average_growth_rates), the + one-number form a person reads. When SWEET has no series for the country, or no + anchor year, the series is None and the fallback rates stand. + """ + population_series = country_population_series(iso3) + if population_series is None or anchor_year is None or pd.isna(anchor_year): + return None, fallback_historic, fallback_future + historic, future = average_growth_rates(population_series, anchor_year) + return population_series, historic, future + + def _population_series_from_pop_data(pop_data, iso3, start_year=MODEL_START_YEAR, end_year=MODEL_END_YEAR): """Extract the WPP2024 per-year population Series for ``iso3`` from ``pop_data``. @@ -251,6 +309,11 @@ class CityParameters(BaseModel): # WPP2024 per-year population series (index = year), used to grow waste and # diversion by P(year)/P(pivot). None -> fall back to the growth_rate_* CAGR. population_series: Optional[pd.Series] = None + # A city's own two growth rates as its loader read them, before _city_growth chose + # between them and the country series. Whoever republishes a city's rates should + # write these, so a reader re-running that choice reaches the same answer. + city_growth_rate_historic: Optional[float] = None + city_growth_rate_future: Optional[float] = None waste_per_capita: Optional[Union[pd.Series, float]] = None precip_zone: Optional[str] = None ks: Optional[DecompositionRates] = None @@ -854,6 +917,17 @@ def load_csv_new(self, db: pd.DataFrame, scenario: int = 0, dst: bool = False) - waste_mass = pd.Series(waste_mass, index=years) year_of_data_pop = city_data["Year of Data Collection (Population)"].values[0] + # A big city keeps its own UN city rates; any other grows with its country's + # population, year by year (_city_growth). + city_growth_historic = city_data["Population Growth Rate: Historic (%)"].values[0] / 100 + 1 + city_growth_future = city_data["Population Growth Rate: Future (%)"].values[0] / 100 + 1 + population_series, growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future = _city_growth( + self.country, + year_of_data_pop, + city_data["Population"].values[0], + city_growth_historic, + city_growth_future, + ) city_instance_attrs = { "city_name": self.city_name, @@ -906,16 +980,11 @@ def load_csv_new(self, db: pd.DataFrame, scenario: int = 0, dst: bool = False) - city_data["Average Annual Precipitation (mm/year)"].values[0] ), temperature=float(city_data["Temperature (C)"].values[0]), - growth_rate_historic=city_data[ - "Population Growth Rate: Historic (%)" - ].values[0] - / 100 - + 1, - growth_rate_future=city_data[ - "Population Growth Rate: Future (%)" - ].values[0] - / 100 - + 1, + growth_rate_historic=growth_rate_historic, + growth_rate_future=growth_rate_future, + population_series=population_series, + city_growth_rate_historic=city_growth_historic, + city_growth_rate_future=city_growth_future, waste_per_capita=city_data[ "Waste Generation Rate per Capita (kg/person/day)" ].values[0], @@ -1007,13 +1076,27 @@ def load_andre_params(self, row, backfill=False): } precipitation_zone = defaults_2019.get_precipitation_zone(current_row["Average Annual Precipitation (mm/year)"].iloc[0]) mef_compost = ((0.0055 * waste_fractions["food"].values[0] / (waste_fractions["food"].values[0] + waste_fractions["green"].values[0])+ 0.0139 * waste_fractions["green"].values[0] / (waste_fractions["food"].values[0] + waste_fractions["green"].values[0]))* 1.1023 * 0.7) + # A big city keeps its own UN city rates; any other grows with its + # country's population, year by year (_city_growth). + city_growth_historic = current_row["Population Growth Rate: Historic (%)"].iloc[0] / 100 + 1 + city_growth_future = current_row["Population Growth Rate: Future (%)"].iloc[0] / 100 + 1 + population_series, growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future = _city_growth( + iso3, + year_of_data_pop, + current_row["Population"].iloc[0], + city_growth_historic, + city_growth_future, + ) baseline = CityParameters( waste_fractions=waste_fractions, div_fractions=div_fractions, div_component_fractions=div_component_fractions, precip=current_row["Average Annual Precipitation (mm/year)"].iloc[0], - growth_rate_historic=current_row["Population Growth Rate: Historic (%)"].iloc[0] / 100 + 1, - growth_rate_future=current_row["Population Growth Rate: Future (%)"].iloc[0] / 100 + 1, + growth_rate_historic=growth_rate_historic, + growth_rate_future=growth_rate_future, + population_series=population_series, + city_growth_rate_historic=city_growth_historic, + city_growth_rate_future=city_growth_future, precip_zone=precipitation_zone, gas_capture_efficiency=None, mef_compost=mef_compost, @@ -1076,8 +1159,13 @@ def load_andre_params(self, row, backfill=False): population = 200000 year_of_data_pop = 2014 - growth_rate_historic = row["historic_growth_rate"] - growth_rate_future = row["future_growth_rate"] + # A big city keeps its own UN city rates; any other grows with its + # country's population, year by year (_city_growth). + city_growth_historic = row["historic_growth_rate"] + city_growth_future = row["future_growth_rate"] + population_series, growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future = _city_growth( + iso3, year_of_data_pop, population, city_growth_historic, city_growth_future + ) self.latitude = float(row['latitude']) self.longitude = float(row['longitude']) @@ -1121,7 +1209,14 @@ def load_andre_params(self, row, backfill=False): # Adjust waste mass to account for difference in reporting years between msw and population # if self.data_source == 'World Bank': - if year_of_data_msw != year_of_data_pop: + if year_of_data_msw != year_of_data_pop and population_series is not None: + # From the waste figure's year to the population figure's, by population. + waste_mass /= growth_factors_for_years( + np.array([year_of_data_msw]), year_of_data_pop, + growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future, population_series, + )[0] + waste_per_capita = waste_mass * 1000 / population / 365 + elif year_of_data_msw != year_of_data_pop: year_difference = year_of_data_pop - year_of_data_msw if year_of_data_msw < year_of_data_pop: waste_mass *= growth_rate_historic**year_difference @@ -1625,6 +1720,7 @@ def calculate_component_fractions( year_of_data_pop, growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future, + population_series=population_series, ) # Assign to CityParameters @@ -1636,6 +1732,9 @@ def calculate_component_fractions( precip=precip, growth_rate_historic=growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future=growth_rate_future, + population_series=population_series, + city_growth_rate_historic=city_growth_historic, + city_growth_rate_future=city_growth_future, waste_per_capita=waste_per_capita, precip_zone=precip_zone, gas_capture_efficiency=gas_capture_efficiency, @@ -4267,6 +4366,7 @@ def _calculate_divs(self, advanced_baseline=False, advanced_dst=False) -> None: year_of_data_pop, city_parameters.growth_rate_historic, city_parameters.growth_rate_future, + population_series=city_parameters.population_series, ).df # if scenario == 0: @@ -4561,7 +4661,7 @@ def dst_baseline_blank( # Initialize a new CityParameters instance with all required fields try: - iso3 = pycountry.countries.search_fuzzy(country)[0].alpha_3 + iso3 = _iso3_for(country) except LookupError: raise ValueError(f"Country '{country}' not found.") @@ -4760,6 +4860,11 @@ def calculate_component_fractions( **(waste_fractions_normalized * waste_mass).to_dict() ) waste_masses_df = waste_fractions_df * waste_mass + # The country's population, year by year. The constants above are one rate for + # every country; they stand only for a country SWEET has no series for. + population_series, growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future = _country_growth( + iso3, year_of_data_pop, growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future + ) waste_generated_df = WasteGeneratedDF.create( waste_masses_df, MODEL_START_YEAR, @@ -4767,6 +4872,7 @@ def calculate_component_fractions( year_of_data_pop, growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future, + population_series=population_series, ) # Assign to CityParameters @@ -4779,6 +4885,7 @@ def calculate_component_fractions( temperature=temperature, growth_rate_historic=growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future=growth_rate_future, + population_series=population_series, waste_per_capita=waste_per_capita, precip_zone=precip_zone, gas_capture_efficiency=gas_capture_efficiency_series, @@ -4910,7 +5017,7 @@ def cityparams_obj_for_blank_site( temperature: float, waste_fractions: float, waste_mass_year: dict, - growth_rate_override: float, + growth_rate_override: Optional[float] = None, ) -> None: """ Initializes the baseline scenario with given parameters for a blank/custom city. @@ -4926,7 +5033,7 @@ def cityparams_obj_for_blank_site( # Initialize a new CityParameters instance with all required fields try: - iso3 = pycountry.countries.search_fuzzy(country)[0].alpha_3 + iso3 = _iso3_for(country) except LookupError: raise ValueError(f"Country '{country}' not found.") @@ -4944,9 +5051,6 @@ def cityparams_obj_for_blank_site( # growth_rate_historic = (population_2020 / population_1950) ** (1 / (2020 - 1950)) # growth_rate_future = (population_2035 / population_2020) ** (1 / (2035 - 2020)) - growth_rate_historic = 1 + growth_rate_override - growth_rate_future = 1 + growth_rate_override - year_of_data_pop = { "baseline": waste_mass_year.baseline, "scenario": waste_mass_year.scenario, @@ -4955,6 +5059,23 @@ def cityparams_obj_for_blank_site( if year_of_data_pop["scenario"] is None: year_of_data_pop["scenario"] = year_of_data_pop["baseline"] + # A rate the user set is compounded as before. Without one, the waste grows with + # the country's population year by year, and the two rates are its averages. + if growth_rate_override is None: + population_series = country_population_series(iso3) + if population_series is None: + raise CustomError( + "INVALID_PARAMETERS", + f"There is no UN population series for {country}. Enter a waste growth rate.", + ) + growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future = average_growth_rates( + population_series, year_of_data_pop["baseline"] + ) + else: + population_series = None + growth_rate_historic = 1 + growth_rate_override + growth_rate_future = 1 + growth_rate_override + # Calculate MEF for compost try: # 0 is food, 1 is green @@ -4988,6 +5109,7 @@ def cityparams_obj_for_blank_site( precip=precipitation, growth_rate_historic=growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future=growth_rate_future, + population_series=population_series, precip_zone=precip_zone, mef_compost=mef_compost, year_of_data_pop=year_of_data_pop, @@ -7363,6 +7485,7 @@ def fill_missing_fields(d: dict) -> dict: year_of_data_pop=yr_pop, growth_rate_historic=scenario_parameters.growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future=scenario_parameters.growth_rate_future, + population_series=scenario_parameters.population_series, ) pos = self.years_range.index(implement_year) @@ -7386,6 +7509,7 @@ def fill_missing_fields(d: dict) -> dict: scenario_parameters.year_of_data_pop, scenario_parameters.growth_rate_historic, scenario_parameters.growth_rate_future, + population_series=scenario_parameters.population_series, ) scenario_parameters.repopulate_attr_dicts() @@ -7990,7 +8114,7 @@ def sdst_v1_5( biocover: Dict = {"baseline": 0.0, "scenario": 0.0}, oxidation_override: Dict = None, baseline_data: pd.DataFrame = None, - growth_rate_override: float = None, + growth_rate_override: Optional[float] = None, country_growth_defaults: List[float] = None, ) -> None: """ @@ -8084,6 +8208,16 @@ def _align_year_df(df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: f"Waste mass year must be between {model_year_min} and {model_year_max}.", ) + # A rate the user set is compounded as before. Without one, the waste grows as + # cityparams_obj_for_blank_site set the site up: by the country's population. + if growth_rate_override is None: + population_series = self.baseline_parameters.population_series + growth_historic = self.baseline_parameters.growth_rate_historic + growth_future = self.baseline_parameters.growth_rate_future + else: + population_series = None + growth_historic = growth_future = 1 + growth_rate_override + def _generated_waste_masses() -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, pd.DataFrame]: baseline_mass = float(_variant_value(new_waste_mass, "baseline")) scenario_mass = _variant_value(new_waste_mass, "scenario") @@ -8105,9 +8239,10 @@ def _generated_waste_masses() -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, pd.DataFrame]: end_year=model_year_max, year_of_data_pop_baseline=waste_year_baseline, year_of_data_pop_scenario=waste_year_scenario, - growth_rate_historic=1 + growth_rate_override, - growth_rate_future=1 + growth_rate_override, + growth_rate_historic=growth_historic, + growth_rate_future=growth_future, implement_year=None, + population_series=population_series, ).df waste_masses_df_scenario = WasteGeneratedDF.create_advanced_2( waste_masses_df=waste_masses_df_scenario_unadjusted, @@ -8115,9 +8250,10 @@ def _generated_waste_masses() -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, pd.DataFrame]: end_year=model_year_max, year_of_data_pop_baseline=waste_year_baseline, year_of_data_pop_scenario=waste_year_scenario, - growth_rate_historic=1 + growth_rate_override, - growth_rate_future=1 + growth_rate_override, + growth_rate_historic=growth_historic, + growth_rate_future=growth_future, implement_year=implement_year, + population_series=population_series, ).df return waste_masses_df_baseline, waste_masses_df_scenario @@ -8190,9 +8326,10 @@ def _apply_open_close_window( start_year=model_start_year, end_year=model_year_max, year_of_data_pop=waste_year_scenario, - growth_rate_historic=1+growth_rate_override, - growth_rate_future=1+growth_rate_override, + growth_rate_historic=growth_historic, + growth_rate_future=growth_future, implement_year=implement_year, + population_series=population_series, ).df scenario_ratio = 1 else: @@ -8932,7 +9069,7 @@ async def sdst_prepopulate( location = geolocator.reverse((latlon[0], latlon[1]), language="en") country = location.raw["address"].get("country") try: - iso3 = pycountry.countries.search_fuzzy(country)[0].alpha_3 + iso3 = _iso3_for(country) except LookupError: raise ValueError(f"Country '{country}' not found.") region = defaults_2019.region_lookup_iso3.get(iso3) @@ -9049,7 +9186,13 @@ async def sdst_prepopulate( wf_out = waste_fractions_df.iloc[0].to_dict() - growth_rate = defaults_2019.growth_rate_country[iso3] / 100 + # The rate a custom site's form starts from: the country's population + # projection, which is what the site grows by when no rate is set. + population_series = country_population_series(iso3) + if population_series is not None: + growth_rate = average_growth_rates(population_series, datetime.now().year - 1)[1] - 1 + else: + growth_rate = defaults_2019.growth_rate_country[iso3] / 100 if (not isinstance(latlon, list)) and (not isinstance(latlon, tuple)): latlon = latlon.tolist() diff --git a/SWEET_python/class_defs.py b/SWEET_python/class_defs.py index 93a59d1..f2f8752 100644 --- a/SWEET_python/class_defs.py +++ b/SWEET_python/class_defs.py @@ -226,36 +226,20 @@ def create_advanced( growth_rate_historic: float, growth_rate_future: float, implement_year: Optional[int] = None, + population_series: Optional[pd.Series] = None, ): - years = np.arange(start_year, end_year + 1) - t = years - year_of_data_pop - - if (growth_rate_future == growth_rate_future) and (growth_rate_future == 0.0): - growth_factors = np.ones(len(years)) - else: - # Create growth rate array, using growth_rate_historic for years before year_of_data_pop and growth_rate_future after - growth_rate = np.where( - years < year_of_data_pop, growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future - ) - growth_factors = growth_rate**t - - # Apply growth factors to each row of the DataFrame - adjusted_data = waste_masses_df.multiply(growth_factors, axis=0) - - # Repeat with the implement_year if it is provided - if implement_year is not None: - year_of_data_pop = implement_year - t = years - year_of_data_pop - growth_rate = np.where( - years < year_of_data_pop, growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future - ) - growth_factors = growth_rate**t - adjusted_data2 = waste_masses_df.multiply(growth_factors, axis=0) - - # Update the original DataFrame - adjusted_data.loc[implement_year:] = adjusted_data2.loc[implement_year:] - - return cls(df=adjusted_data) + # The same as create_advanced_2 with the scenario pivoting at implement_year. + return cls.create_advanced_2( + waste_masses_df, + start_year, + end_year, + year_of_data_pop, + implement_year, + growth_rate_historic, + growth_rate_future, + implement_year=implement_year, + population_series=population_series, + ) @classmethod def create_advanced_2( @@ -268,32 +252,29 @@ def create_advanced_2( growth_rate_historic: float, growth_rate_future: float, implement_year: Optional[int] = None, + population_series: Optional[pd.Series] = None, ): years = np.arange(start_year, end_year + 1) - t = years - year_of_data_pop_baseline - if (growth_rate_future == growth_rate_future) and (growth_rate_future == 0.0): + # By the population series when there is one, else the two rates + # (growth_factors_for_years). A future rate of exactly 0.0 with no series + # means "no growth model". + if population_series is None and growth_rate_future == 0.0: growth_factors = np.ones(len(years)) else: - # Create growth rate array, using growth_rate_historic for years before year_of_data_pop and growth_rate_future after - growth_rate = np.where( - years < year_of_data_pop_baseline, growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future + growth_factors = growth_factors_for_years( + years, year_of_data_pop_baseline, growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future, + population_series, ) - growth_factors = growth_rate**t - - # Apply growth factors to each row of the DataFrame adjusted_data = waste_masses_df.multiply(growth_factors, axis=0) - # Repeat with the implement_year if it is provided + # From implement_year on, the scenario pivots on its own year. if implement_year is not None: - t = years - year_of_data_pop_scenario - growth_rate = np.where( - years < year_of_data_pop_scenario, growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future + growth_factors = growth_factors_for_years( + years, year_of_data_pop_scenario, growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future, + population_series, ) - growth_factors = growth_rate**t adjusted_data2 = waste_masses_df.multiply(growth_factors, axis=0) - - # Update the original DataFrame adjusted_data.loc[implement_year:] = adjusted_data2.loc[implement_year:] return cls(df=adjusted_data) @@ -428,8 +409,17 @@ def create_simple( year_of_data_pop: int, growth_rate_historic: float, growth_rate_future: float, + population_series: Optional[pd.Series] = None, ) -> "DivsDF": + years = np.arange(start_year, end_year + 1) + # By the population series when there is one, else the two rates, as the waste + # it is diverted from (growth_factors_for_years). The same for all four streams. + growth_factors = growth_factors_for_years( + years, year_of_data_pop, growth_rate_historic, growth_rate_future, + population_series, + ) + def create_div_df(baseline: WasteMasses, scenario: WasteMasses) -> pd.DataFrame: # All waste types in order waste_types = list(baseline.model_dump().keys()) @@ -438,17 +428,6 @@ def create_div_df(baseline: WasteMasses, scenario: WasteMasses) -> pd.DataFrame: baseline_arr = np.array([getattr(baseline, w) for w in waste_types]) scenario_arr = np.array([getattr(scenario, w) for w in waste_types]) - # Array of years - years = np.arange(start_year, end_year + 1) - # Compute time offsets - t = years - year_of_data_pop - - # Compute growth factors - # If year < year_of_data_pop -> use growth_rate_historic, else growth_rate_future - growth_factors = np.where( - years < year_of_data_pop, growth_rate_historic**t, growth_rate_future**t - ) - # Mask for baseline vs scenario (before or after implement_year) baseline_mask = years < implement_year diff --git a/SWEET_python/constants.py b/SWEET_python/constants.py index d2f96b0..84c7f77 100644 --- a/SWEET_python/constants.py +++ b/SWEET_python/constants.py @@ -26,6 +26,13 @@ silently drops every country back to the frozen-CAGR growth scalars. Regenerate with diagnostic_scripts/generate_pops_yearly.py and upload to blob static_data/pops_yearly.csv BEFORE the constant lands in a run. + +THERE ARE TWO COPIES OF THAT TABLE, and nothing keeps them in step. Climate TRACE's +pipeline reads the blob copy; the WasteMAP tools read SWEET's own +SWEET_python/pops_yearly.csv (SWEET_python.population), which is the same table +extended back to 1950 because the site tool models from a landfill's real opening +year. Regenerate both from the same WPP file: the generator starts at +MODEL_START_YEAR, so SWEET's copy needs its START_YEAR set to 1950. """ MODEL_START_YEAR: int = 1970 diff --git a/SWEET_python/pops_yearly.csv b/SWEET_python/pops_yearly.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0609f25 --- /dev/null +++ b/SWEET_python/pops_yearly.csv @@ -0,0 +1,239 @@ +iso3_country,1950,1951,1952,1953,1954,1955,1956,1957,1958,1959,1960,1961,1962,1963,1964,1965,1966,1967,1968,1969,1970,1971,1972,1973,1974,1975,1976,1977,1978,1979,1980,1981,1982,1983,1984,1985,1986,1987,1988,1989,1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035,2036,2037,2038,2039,2040,2041,2042,2043,2044,2045,2046,2047,2048,2049,2050 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a/SWEET_python/population.py b/SWEET_python/population.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..295e8df --- /dev/null +++ b/SWEET_python/population.py @@ -0,0 +1,67 @@ +"""Country population by year, from the UN's World Population Prospects 2024. + +SWEET grows a place's waste with its country's population, year by year: the factor +for a year is P(year) / P(anchor year) (see class_defs.growth_factors_for_years). +Climate TRACE's pipeline hands SWEET the same numbers through ``pop_data``; the +WasteMAP tools, which have no ``pop_data``, read them here. + +``pops_yearly.csv`` is Climate TRACE's ``static_data/pops_yearly.csv`` (1970-2050) +unchanged, extended back to 1950 from the same source, because the site tool models +a landfill from its real opening year. Built with Climate TRACE's +``diagnostic_scripts/generate_pops_yearly.py`` from +``WPP2024_GEN_F01_DEMOGRAPHIC_INDICATORS_COMPACT.xlsx``, "Total Population, as of 1 +January (thousands)": estimates to 2023, medium variant after. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +from functools import lru_cache +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Optional + +import pandas as pd + +from SWEET_python.constants import MODEL_END_YEAR, MODEL_START_YEAR + +_TABLE_PATH = Path(__file__).with_name("pops_yearly.csv") + + +@lru_cache(maxsize=1) +def _table() -> pd.DataFrame: + table = pd.read_csv(_TABLE_PATH, index_col=0) + table.columns = [int(c) for c in table.columns] + return table + + +def country_population_series(iso3: Optional[str]) -> Optional[pd.Series]: + """The country's population for every year in the table, or ``None`` if it has none.""" + table = _table() + if not isinstance(iso3, str) or iso3 not in table.index: + return None + series = table.loc[iso3].astype(float) + if series.isna().any() or not (series > 0).all(): + return None + return series.copy() # a copy, so no caller can edit the cached table + + +def average_growth_rates( + series: pd.Series, + anchor_year: int, + start_year: int = MODEL_START_YEAR, + end_year: int = MODEL_END_YEAR, +) -> tuple[float, float]: + """The two constant yearly multipliers that match ``series`` at the ends of the window. + + Historic: ``(P(anchor) / P(start)) ** (1 / (anchor - start))``. Future: + ``(P(end) / P(anchor)) ** (1 / (end - anchor))``. SWEET does not apply these when + it has the series; they are the one-number growth rate a person reads, and what + the constant-rate fallback compounds. An anchor at either end of the window gives + that side the other side's rate. + """ + anchor = min(max(int(anchor_year), start_year), end_year) + p = series + historic = (p[anchor] / p[start_year]) ** (1 / (anchor - start_year)) if anchor > start_year else None + future = (p[end_year] / p[anchor]) ** (1 / (end_year - anchor)) if anchor < end_year else None + historic = future if historic is None else historic + future = historic if future is None else future + return float(historic), float(future) diff --git a/changelog/2026-09.md b/changelog/2026-09.md index d171107..74e8b53 100644 --- a/changelog/2026-09.md +++ b/changelog/2026-09.md @@ -18,6 +18,45 @@ nowhere near the cause. ## Changed +- **WasteMAP's tools grow waste with the country's UN population, year by year** + (model-output change). Climate TRACE's pipeline already grew each site this way: + P(year) / P(anchor year), from the UN's World Population Prospects 2024. The + WasteMAP paths compounded two flat rates instead. SWEET now ships the table as + `pops_yearly.csv` (Climate TRACE's `static_data/pops_yearly.csv`, 1970–2050, + extended back to 1950 from the same source for the site tool), read by the new + `SWEET_python.population`. + - **Site tool (`cityparams_obj_for_blank_site`, `sdst_v1_5`):** + `growth_rate_override=None` now means the country's population. A rate the + caller passes is compounded as before. + - **City tool and the map's city emissions (`load_csv_new`, + `load_andre_params`):** a city under 300,000 people now grows with its + country's population. The cities table's two growth columns come from the UN's + list of cities over 300,000, and a smaller city had the nearest listed city's + rates. Many were wrong: for a small Brazilian town, the town's own 2020 + population was mixed with a big city's 1950 and 2035 figures, which gave Serra + da Saudade (781 people) +83% a year to 2035. A city of 300,000 or more keeps its + own UN city rates, unless one is outside −2% to +7% a year, which is the same + mix-up (Manila City's +16.9%). + - **Custom Location (`dst_baseline_blank`):** grows with its country's population. + It used one constant for every country: 2.5% a year to 2020, then 1.4%. + - The city scenario (`implement_dst_changes_simple_v1_5`) grows its waste and + diversions the same way as its baseline. + - `WasteGeneratedDF.create_advanced`, `create_advanced_2` and + `DivsDF.create_simple` take `population_series`. Without it they are unchanged, + as are Climate TRACE's paths, which pass their own `pop_data`. + - A city's own two rates, as its loader read them, are kept on + `CityParameters.city_growth_rate_*`. WasteMAP's map build republishes those + rather than the rates it applied, so the city tool, re-running the choice on + the published table, reaches the same answer for a big city whose own rates + were rejected. + - Countries are found by exact code or name first, falling back to the fuzzy + search. The fuzzy search turned "MUS" into Turkey (its province Muş), which + now matters because the code picks the population series; "Niger" also + resolved to Nigeria. + - The site tool's prefill for a custom site starts the rate from the country's + population projection instead of the 2019 default table. + ([#71](https://github.com/RMI/SWEET_python/pull/71), [RMI/WasteMAP#839](https://github.com/RMI/WasteMAP/pull/839)) + - **`DivsDF.sum` no longer passes `copy=False` to `infer_objects`.** The four `reindex(...).infer_objects(...).fillna(0)` chains that combine the compost / anaerobic / combustion / recycling streams into the diverted-mass frame passed diff --git a/changelog/README.md b/changelog/README.md index 0393293..4bb1323 100644 --- a/changelog/README.md +++ b/changelog/README.md @@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ The project does not publish semantic version tags, so releases are tracked by Newest first: -- [2026-09](2026-09.md) — Model output frames get one fixed waste-type column order instead of a per-process one (a `set` fed the ordering, and Python randomizes set iteration per process), moving values in the last bit only, where a sum runs across the reordered columns; City DST's diversion sum stops passing pandas a keyword pandas is removing, which would have broken the model path on pandas 4 behind a misleading `AttributeError` (no output change); annual model no longer charges a flare's inefficiency twice (a hardcoded 2% slip stacked on the `flaring` destruction efficiency), so it agrees with the monthly model again and a site with gas capture emits ~3.5% less (model-output change); `gas_capture_efficiency` bounded to [0, 1], where an out-of-range value used to produce negative emissions silently; one methane density constant instead of two 9.1% apart +- [2026-09](2026-09.md) — WasteMAP's site tool, city tool and Custom Location grow waste with the country's UN population year by year, as Climate TRACE does; big cities keep their own UN city rates (model-output change); model output frames get one fixed waste-type column order instead of a per-process one (a `set` fed the ordering, and Python randomizes set iteration per process), moving values in the last bit only, where a sum runs across the reordered columns; City DST's diversion sum stops passing pandas a keyword pandas is removing, which would have broken the model path on pandas 4 behind a misleading `AttributeError` (no output change); annual model no longer charges a flare's inefficiency twice (a hardcoded 2% slip stacked on the `flaring` destruction efficiency), so it agrees with the monthly model again and a site with gas capture emits ~3.5% less (model-output change); `gas_capture_efficiency` bounded to [0, 1], where an out-of-range value used to produce negative emissions silently; one methane density constant instead of two 9.1% apart - [2026-08](2026-08.md) — Single-site adst gains optional `depth` (deep-dump MCF bump) and `k_override` (caller-supplied decomposition rate) inputs, restoring the last two site-DST levers; `/sdst` flaring efficiency reaches the model again after a variable-name bug silently forced flare destruction to 0.98; annual model applies cover oxidation by emission year not deposit year, fixing biocover having no effect on closed landfills (WasteMAP #719); `City.sdst_v1_5` custom-site path holds the scenario equal to the baseline before the implementation year even when composition changes (was back-dating the new composition onto pre-implementation deposits) (model-output change); MCF consolidated into a new `SWEET_python.mcf` module and both dump types moved to the IPCC uncategorised-SWDS 0.6 (open dumps up from 0.4, controlled dumps down from 0.7), with a supplied depth now selecting the deep/shallow category (model-output change) - [2026-07](2026-07.md) — All ten waste types eligible for combustion (metal/glass/other added); methane-only model treats combustion as landfill diversion (model-output change) - [2026-06](2026-06.md) — New single-site and city-level ADST modeling modules, min-cost max-flow rewrite of the city DST diversion allocator, physical-k fix for cold/dry sites, no more spurious negative food-waste mass diff --git a/tests/test_population_growth.py b/tests/test_population_growth.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b37c36d --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/test_population_growth.py @@ -0,0 +1,240 @@ +"""WasteMAP's tools grow waste with the country's UN population, year by year. + +Climate TRACE's pipeline hands SWEET the UN WPP2024 population for every year and +SWEET grows a site's waste by P(year) / P(anchor year). The WasteMAP tools compounded +two flat rates instead: the site tool's form value, the city tool's cities-table +columns, and for Custom Location one constant for every country. These tests hold the +WasteMAP paths to the population series, and hold the paths that still take a rate +(a typed site-tool rate, a big city's own UN city rates) to what they did before. +""" + +import numpy as np +import pandas as pd +import pytest + +from SWEET_python import city_params +from SWEET_python.city_params import City +from SWEET_python.class_defs import DivMasses, DivsDF, DiversionFractions, Variant, WasteGeneratedDF, WasteMasses +from SWEET_python.population import average_growth_rates, country_population_series +from test_sdst_v1_5_preimplement_composition import ( + BASELINE_FRACTIONS, + CLOSE_YEAR, + COMPONENT_ORDER, + MODEL_YEAR_MAX, + OPEN_YEAR, +) + +BRA = country_population_series("BRA") +USA = country_population_series("USA") +WINDOW = range(1970, 2051) + + +def _shape(frame_or_series, anchor): + total = frame_or_series.sum(axis=1) if isinstance(frame_or_series, pd.DataFrame) else frame_or_series + return (total / total.loc[anchor]).loc[list(WINDOW)].to_numpy() + + +def _population_shape(series, anchor): + return (series / series.loc[anchor]).loc[list(WINDOW)].to_numpy() + + +# --- the table --------------------------------------------------------------- + + +def test_a_country_has_a_population_for_every_year_the_site_tool_models(): + assert list(USA.index) == list(range(1950, 2051)) + assert (USA > 0).all() + assert USA.loc[2023] == pytest.approx(342475.098) # WPP2024, thousands + + +def test_an_unknown_country_has_no_series(): + assert country_population_series("XXX") is None + assert country_population_series(None) is None + + +def test_a_caller_cannot_edit_the_table(): + mine = country_population_series("USA") + mine.loc[2023] = 0.0 + assert country_population_series("USA").loc[2023] == pytest.approx(342475.098) + + +def test_the_average_rates_reach_the_series_at_both_ends(): + historic, future = average_growth_rates(USA, 2022) + assert USA.loc[2022] * historic ** (1970 - 2022) == pytest.approx(USA.loc[1970]) + assert USA.loc[2022] * future ** (2050 - 2022) == pytest.approx(USA.loc[2050]) + + +# --- the growth constructors --------------------------------------------------- + + +def _masses(years): + return pd.DataFrame({"food": 10.0, "paper_cardboard": 5.0}, index=years) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("builder", ["create_advanced", "create_advanced_2"]) +def test_the_site_tool_constructors_follow_the_series_when_given_one(builder): + years = np.arange(1970, 2051) + args = (_masses(years), 1970, 2050, 2025) + (() if builder == "create_advanced" else (2025,)) + grown = getattr(WasteGeneratedDF, builder)(*args, 1.5, 1.5, population_series=USA).df + assert np.allclose(_shape(grown, 2025), _population_shape(USA, 2025)) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("builder", ["create_advanced", "create_advanced_2"]) +def test_the_site_tool_constructors_compound_a_rate_as_before(builder): + years = np.arange(1970, 2051) + args = (_masses(years), 1970, 2050, 2025) + (() if builder == "create_advanced" else (2025,)) + grown = getattr(WasteGeneratedDF, builder)(*args, 1.02, 1.03).df + expected = np.where(years < 2025, 1.02, 1.03) ** (years - 2025) + assert np.array_equal(grown["food"].to_numpy(), 10.0 * expected) + + +def test_scenario_diversions_follow_the_series_when_given_one(): + zero = WasteMasses(**{w: 0.0 for w in COMPONENT_ORDER}) + compost = WasteMasses(**{**{w: 0.0 for w in COMPONENT_ORDER}, "food": 100.0}) + divs = DivMasses(compost=compost, anaerobic=zero, combustion=zero, recycling=zero) + grown = DivsDF.create_simple(divs, divs, 1970, 2050, 2030, 2025, 1.5, 1.5, population_series=BRA) + assert np.allclose(_shape(grown.compost["food"], 2025), _population_shape(BRA, 2025)) + + +# --- the city tool ------------------------------------------------------------- + + +def test_a_big_city_with_plausible_rates_keeps_its_own(): + series, historic, future = city_params._city_growth("NGA", 2020, 15_000_000, 1.0556, 1.036) + assert series is None and (historic, future) == (1.0556, 1.036) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize( + "population, historic, future, why", + [ + (781, 0.9144, 1.8303, "a town under 300k borrows the nearest big city's rate"), + (1_800_000, 1.0022, 1.1687, "Manila City: its own population mixed with the agglomeration's"), + (np.nan, 1.02, 1.01, "no population to tell"), + (2_000_000, np.nan, 1.01, "no rate"), + ], +) +def test_any_other_city_grows_with_its_country(population, historic, future, why): + series, got_historic, got_future = city_params._city_growth("BRA", 2022, population, historic, future) + assert series is not None, why + assert (got_historic, got_future) == pytest.approx(average_growth_rates(BRA, 2022)) + + +def test_custom_location_grows_with_its_country_not_one_constant(): + city = City("custom") + city.dst_baseline_blank("United States", 100_000, 800.0, 15.0) + baseline = city.baseline_parameters + + assert np.allclose(_shape(baseline.waste_generated_df, 2022), _population_shape(USA, 2022)) + # Was (4.3e9 / 751e6) ** (1/70), 2.5% a year, for every country. + assert baseline.growth_rate_historic == pytest.approx(average_growth_rates(USA, 2022)[0]) + + +def test_the_city_scenario_grows_as_its_baseline_does(): + city = City("custom") + city.dst_baseline_blank("United States", 100_000, 800.0, 15.0) + for landfill in city.baseline_parameters.landfills: + landfill.estimate_emissions() + + divs = DiversionFractions(compost=0.1, anaerobic=0.0, combustion=0.0, recycling=0.1) + city.implement_dst_changes_simple_v1_5(divs, False, False, 0.0, 0.0, 2030, 1, 0.0) + scenario = city.scenario_parameters[0] + + after = list(range(2030, 2051)) + waste = scenario.waste_generated_df.df.sum(axis=1) + compost = scenario.divs_df.compost.sum(axis=1) + usa = (USA / USA.loc[2035]).loc[after].to_numpy() + assert np.allclose((waste / waste.loc[2035]).loc[after].to_numpy(), usa) + assert np.allclose((compost / compost.loc[2035]).loc[after].to_numpy(), usa) + + +# --- the site tool ------------------------------------------------------------- + + +def _custom_site(growth_rate_override): + years = pd.Index(range(OPEN_YEAR, MODEL_YEAR_MAX + 1)) + fractions = pd.DataFrame([BASELINE_FRACTIONS] * len(years), index=years, columns=COMPONENT_ORDER, dtype=float) + year = Variant[int](baseline=2025, scenario=2025) + city = City("custom site") + city.cityparams_obj_for_blank_site( + country="BRA", + population=None, + precipitation=500.0, + temperature=10.0, + waste_fractions=Variant(baseline=list(BASELINE_FRACTIONS), scenario=list(BASELINE_FRACTIONS)), + waste_mass_year=year, + growth_rate_override=growth_rate_override, + ) + city.sdst_v1_5( + precipitation=500.0, + new_waste_fractions={"baseline": fractions, "scenario": fractions}, + new_landfill_types=Variant(baseline=[2], scenario=[2]), + new_gas_efficiency=Variant(baseline=[0.0], scenario=[0.0]), + new_landfill_open_close_dates=Variant(baseline=[(OPEN_YEAR, CLOSE_YEAR)], scenario=[(OPEN_YEAR, CLOSE_YEAR)]), + scenario=1, + landfill_split_timeline=Variant(baseline={y: [1.0] for y in years}, scenario={y: [1.0] for y in years}), + new_landfill_latlons=None, + new_landfill_areas=None, + new_covertypes=None, + new_coverthicknesses=None, + waste_burning=Variant(baseline=0.0, scenario=0.0), + new_landfill_flaring=Variant(baseline=[0.98], scenario=[0.98]), + fancy_ox=None, + new_waste_mass=Variant(baseline=10000.0, scenario=10000.0), + waste_mass_year=year, + depths=Variant(baseline=[3.0], scenario=[3.0]), + ks_overrides=Variant(baseline=0.2, scenario=0.2), + biocover={"baseline": 0.0, "scenario": 0.0}, + oxidation_override=None, + baseline_data=None, + implement_year=2030, + growth_rate_override=growth_rate_override, + country_growth_defaults=[1.0, 1.0], + ) + deposits = city.baseline_parameters.landfills[0].waste_mass_df + return deposits.sum(axis=1) + + +def test_a_custom_site_with_no_rate_grows_with_its_country(): + deposits = _custom_site(None) + open_years = list(range(OPEN_YEAR, CLOSE_YEAR)) + assert np.allclose( + (deposits / deposits.loc[2025]).loc[open_years].to_numpy(), + (BRA / BRA.loc[2025]).loc[open_years].to_numpy(), + ) + + +def test_a_typed_rate_is_compounded_as_before(): + deposits = _custom_site(0.02) + assert deposits.loc[2035] == pytest.approx(10000.0 * 1.02**10) + + +# --- review fixes -------------------------------------------------------------- + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize( + "given, iso3", + [("MUS", "MUS"), ("Mauritius", "MUS"), ("Niger", "NER"), ("Nigeria", "NGA"), ("United States", "USA")], +) +def test_a_country_is_found_by_its_code_before_the_fuzzy_search(given, iso3): + """search_fuzzy('MUS') is Turkey (province Mus), and 'Niger' was Nigeria.""" + assert city_params._iso3_for(given) == iso3 + + +def test_mauritius_grows_with_mauritius(): + city = City("custom") + city.dst_baseline_blank("MUS", 100_000, 1500.0, 24.0) + assert city.baseline_parameters.population_series.equals(country_population_series("MUS")) + + +def test_republishing_a_citys_own_rates_keeps_its_growth_the_same(): + """The map build writes a city's rates back into the cities table and the city tool + re-runs _city_growth on them. Republishing the rates the loader READ keeps the + choice; republishing the averages it applied flipped Manila City to compounding.""" + own = (1.0022, 1.1687) # Manila City: its own population mixed with the agglomeration's + series, historic, future = city_params._city_growth("PHL", 2020, 1_800_000, *own) + assert series is not None + + reread, *_ = city_params._city_growth("PHL", 2020, 1_800_000, *own) + assert reread is not None + flipped, *_ = city_params._city_growth("PHL", 2020, 1_800_000, historic, future) + assert flipped is None # why the applied averages must not be republished