From 98aa5bbc44297e89b521fc6c2d4a8a91c20bd8b0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: martinholmer Date: Tue, 30 Jun 2026 15:29:16 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 1/3] Update generated TMD data using new taxcalc _claim_prob_min params --- tests/expected_tax_exp_2022_data | 2 +- tests/fingerprints/tmd_file_fingerprint.json | 624 +++++++++---------- tests/test_imputed_variables.py | 22 +- tests/test_misc.py | 6 +- tests/test_taxcalc_results_2022.py | 4 +- tests/test_weights.py | 16 +- tmd/imputation_assumptions.py | 2 +- 7 files changed, 338 insertions(+), 338 deletions(-) diff --git a/tests/expected_tax_exp_2022_data b/tests/expected_tax_exp_2022_data index 4bbd4ea3..c21256f2 100644 --- a/tests/expected_tax_exp_2022_data +++ b/tests/expected_tax_exp_2022_data @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ YR,KIND,EST= 2023 paytax 1428.8 YR,KIND,EST= 2023 iitax 2332.1 YR,KIND,EST= 2023 ctc 129.6 -YR,KIND,EST= 2023 eitc 66.4 +YR,KIND,EST= 2023 eitc 66.9 YR,KIND,EST= 2023 social_security_partial_taxability 47.3 YR,KIND,EST= 2023 niit -47.4 YR,KIND,EST= 2023 cgqd_tax_preference 179.8 diff --git a/tests/fingerprints/tmd_file_fingerprint.json b/tests/fingerprints/tmd_file_fingerprint.json index 3a6c530e..5be17097 100644 --- a/tests/fingerprints/tmd_file_fingerprint.json +++ b/tests/fingerprints/tmd_file_fingerprint.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "columns": { "DSI": { - 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"exp_totben_2022": 24.47, - "exp_affpct_2022": 8.95, - "exp_affben_2022": 1398, + "exp_totben_2022": 24.21, + "exp_affpct_2022": 8.91, + "exp_affben_2022": 1391, }, "TIP": { # new OBBBA tip income deduction "reform_dict": {"TipIncomeDed_c": {simyear: 0}}, @@ -72,9 +72,9 @@ def actual_results(rdf, bdf): # https://taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/ # budget-laws-tax-cuts-overtime-and- # tips-are-popular-few-will-benefit - "exp_totben_2022": 7.31, - "exp_affpct_2022": 2.68, - "exp_affben_2022": 1397, + "exp_totben_2022": 7.00, + "exp_affpct_2022": 2.64, + "exp_affben_2022": 1359, }, "ALI": { # new OBBBA auto loan interest deduction "reform_dict": {"AutoLoanInterestDed_c": {simyear: 0}}, @@ -87,8 +87,8 @@ def actual_results(rdf, bdf): # because the Tax Policy Center did not provide any # statistics for this new deduction. However, see the # following reform analysis for FOUR reforms. - "exp_totben_2022": 8.05, - "exp_affpct_2022": 12.87, + "exp_totben_2022": 8.01, + "exp_affpct_2022": 12.81, "exp_affben_2022": 319, }, "ALL": { # above three deductions plus new OBBBA senior deduction @@ -107,9 +107,9 @@ def actual_results(rdf, bdf): # https://taxpolicycenter.org/model-estimates/T25-0257 # Note that the $1081 TPC estimate is derived by dividing # the all-unit average of $320 by the 0.296 affpct. - "exp_totben_2022": 60.14, - "exp_affpct_2022": 29.19, - "exp_affben_2022": 1054, + "exp_totben_2022": 59.56, + "exp_affpct_2022": 29.14, + "exp_affben_2022": 1046, }, } output_variables = [ diff --git a/tests/test_misc.py b/tests/test_misc.py index a8b5f803..d6984876 100644 --- a/tests/test_misc.py +++ b/tests/test_misc.py @@ -24,8 +24,8 @@ def test_population(tmd_variables): # to December 1, 2026 (NA-EST2025-POP)" table which is at this URL: # https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/ # 2020s-national-total.html - r_tol = 0.0001 + r_tol = 0.001 assert abs(pop / exp_pop[TAXYEAR] - 1) < r_tol, ( - f"{TAXYEAR} population ({pop:.2f}) not within {(r_tol * 100):.1f}% " - f"of expected {exp_pop[TAXYEAR]:.2f} million" + f"{TAXYEAR} population ({pop:.2f}) not within {(r_tol * 100):.2f}% " + f"of expected {exp_pop[TAXYEAR]:.2f}" ) diff --git a/tests/test_taxcalc_results_2022.py b/tests/test_taxcalc_results_2022.py index 2f3810ad..d85c7419 100644 --- a/tests/test_taxcalc_results_2022.py +++ b/tests/test_taxcalc_results_2022.py @@ -13,8 +13,8 @@ from tmd.imputation_assumptions import TAXYEAR, SOI_IITAX_SPEC MAX_RELATIVE_TOLERANCE = { - "n_returns_mil": 0.082, - "amount_bil": 0.004, + "n_returns_mil": 0.010, + "amount_bil": 0.005, } diff --git a/tests/test_weights.py b/tests/test_weights.py index 1d7de95a..a5090498 100644 --- a/tests/test_weights.py +++ b/tests/test_weights.py @@ -44,16 +44,16 @@ def test_weights(tmd_variables): "sum_sq": 478456942738.8, }, "tmd2022": { - "n": 215432, - "total": 189407822.7, - "mean": 879.200, - "sdev": 1089.97, + "n": 215406, + "total": 189298329.8, + "mean": 878.798, + "sdev": 1088.949, "min": 0.10804, - "p25": 21.7997, - "p50": 397.248, - "p75": 1437.74, + "p25": 21.7881, + "p50": 396.825, + "p75": 1437.48, "max": 16580.30, - "sum_sq": 422470205255.1, + "sum_sq": 421785907934.2, }, } # all float stats checked with np.allclose defaults diff --git a/tmd/imputation_assumptions.py b/tmd/imputation_assumptions.py index 7761a358..4fce124a 100644 --- a/tmd/imputation_assumptions.py +++ b/tmd/imputation_assumptions.py @@ -34,7 +34,7 @@ # parameters used to identify CPS nonfilers: FILER_MIN_INCOME = { 2021: 8600, - 2022: 9900, + 2022: 9990, } CPS_FILER_MIN_INCOME = FILER_MIN_INCOME[TAXYEAR] CPS_WEIGHTS_SCALE = {2021: 1.0, 2022: 1.0} # for scaling CPS nonfiler weights From a1355b9fceff828d9b507d72dcd4ece68a25067e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: martinholmer Date: Wed, 1 Jul 2026 15:18:58 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 2/3] Specify version 2.1.3 that requires taxcalc 6.7.1+ --- README.md | 15 ++++++++------- setup.py | 4 ++-- 2 files changed, 10 insertions(+), 9 deletions(-) diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 520192a4..acefa4c5 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -8,18 +8,19 @@ For Tax-Calculator results generated when using these TMD input files, see [this folder](https://github.com/PSLmodels/Tax-Calculator/tree/master/taxcalc/cli/input_data_tests). -The **current TMD version is 2.1.2**, which was released on May 29, -2026, and is the same as TMD version 2.1.1 except that Tax-Calculator -version 6.7.0 (instead of 6.6.1 or 6.6.2) is used to generate the TMD -files. This new Tax-Calculator version uses a more refined refundable +The **current TMD version is 2.1.3**, which was released on July 2, +2026, and is the same as TMD version 2.1.2 except that at least Tax-Calculator +version 6.7.1 (instead of 6.7.0) is required to generate the TMD files. +This new Tax-Calculator version uses a more refined refundable credit claiming logic, which causes minor changes in the TMD input data files generated by this repo (even after some recalibration of the TMD data generation logic). [Tax-Calculator pull request -3085](https://github.com/PSLmodels/Tax-Calculator/pull/3085) shows the +3087](https://github.com/PSLmodels/Tax-Calculator/pull/3087) shows the small differences in baseline policy results when using the new TMD -2.1.2 input data files. +2.1.3 input data files (instead of the old 2.1.2 input data files +generated using Tax-Calculator version 6.7.0). -When using version 2.1.2 to generate **sub-national weights**, there +When using version 2.1.3 to generate **sub-national weights**, there will be (presumably small) differences from the sub-national weights generated using earlier versions; however, the sub-national weights fingerprints have not yet been updated. diff --git a/setup.py b/setup.py index 26be4b1f..01c7a553 100644 --- a/setup.py +++ b/setup.py @@ -2,11 +2,11 @@ setup( name="tmd", - version="2.1.2", + version="2.1.3", packages=find_packages(), python_requires=">=3.11,<3.14", install_requires=[ - "taxcalc>=6.7.0", + "taxcalc>=6.7.1", "numpy", "pandas>=3.0.2", "clarabel", From 0ff9089a06671a5de875a8caac101d033306a6ef Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: martinholmer Date: Wed, 1 Jul 2026 15:24:49 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 3/3] Fix README.md release date --- README.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index acefa4c5..30304dd3 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ For Tax-Calculator results generated when using these TMD input files, see [this folder](https://github.com/PSLmodels/Tax-Calculator/tree/master/taxcalc/cli/input_data_tests). -The **current TMD version is 2.1.3**, which was released on July 2, +The **current TMD version is 2.1.3**, which was released on July 1, 2026, and is the same as TMD version 2.1.2 except that at least Tax-Calculator version 6.7.1 (instead of 6.7.0) is required to generate the TMD files. This new Tax-Calculator version uses a more refined refundable