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API Setup Guide

This guide explains how to obtain API keys and credentials for each platform supported by PredictBot.

Table of Contents

  1. Polymarket Setup
  2. Kalshi Setup
  3. Manifold Markets Setup
  4. PredictIt Setup
  5. AI Services Setup
  6. Polyseer Setup

Polymarket Setup

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market on the Polygon blockchain. You'll need an Ethereum wallet and a Polygon RPC endpoint.

1. Create a Trading Wallet

⚠️ IMPORTANT: Create a dedicated wallet for trading. Never use your main wallet!

Option A: MetaMask (Recommended for beginners)

  1. Install MetaMask browser extension
  2. Create a new wallet or import an existing one
  3. Create a new account specifically for trading
  4. Export the private key:
    • Click the three dots menu → Account Details
    • Click "Export Private Key"
    • Enter your password
    • Copy the private key (starts with 0x)

Option B: Generate a new wallet programmatically

from eth_account import Account
account = Account.create()
print(f"Address: {account.address}")
print(f"Private Key: {account.key.hex()}")

2. Fund Your Wallet

  1. Get USDC on Polygon:

    • Bridge USDC from Ethereum to Polygon using Polygon Bridge
    • Or buy USDC directly on Polygon via exchanges that support Polygon withdrawals

  2. Get MATIC for gas:

    • You need a small amount of MATIC (1-5 MATIC is plenty) for transaction fees
    • Buy from exchanges or use a faucet for small amounts

3. Get a Polygon RPC URL

You need an RPC endpoint to interact with the Polygon blockchain.

Option A: Infura (Recommended)

  1. Go to Infura
  2. Create a free account
  3. Create a new project
  4. Select "Polygon" network
  5. Copy the HTTPS endpoint URL

Option B: Alchemy

  1. Go to Alchemy
  2. Create a free account
  3. Create a new app for Polygon Mainnet
  4. Copy the HTTPS URL

Option C: Public RPC (Not recommended for production)

https://polygon-rpc.com

4. Set Environment Variables

POLY_PRIVATE_KEY=0x... # Your wallet private key
POLY_RPC_URL=https://polygon-mainnet.infura.io/v3/YOUR_PROJECT_ID

Kalshi Setup

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange.

1. Create a Kalshi Account

  1. Go to Kalshi
  2. Click "Sign Up"
  3. Complete identity verification (required for trading)
  4. Fund your account via bank transfer or wire

2. Generate API Keys

  1. Log in to your Kalshi account
  2. Go to Settings → API Access
  3. Click "Generate API Key"
  4. Save both the API Key ID and API Secret
    • ⚠️ The secret is only shown once!

3. Set Environment Variables

KALSHI_API_KEY=your_api_key_id
KALSHI_API_SECRET=your_api_secret

API Documentation

Manifold Markets Setup

Manifold is a play-money prediction market platform.

1. Create a Manifold Account

  1. Go to Manifold Markets
  2. Sign up with Google or email
  3. You'll receive starting Mana (play money)

2. Generate API Key

  1. Log in to Manifold
  2. Go to your Profile → Edit Profile
  3. Scroll down to API Key
  4. Click "Generate" or copy existing key

3. Set Environment Variables

MANIFOLD_API_KEY=your_api_key
MANIFOLD_USERNAME=your_username

API Documentation

PredictIt Setup

PredictIt is a real-money political prediction market. API access is limited.

1. Create a PredictIt Account

  1. Go to PredictIt
  2. Create an account
  3. Complete identity verification
  4. Fund your account (max $850 per market)

2. API Access

Note: PredictIt has limited official API support. Options include:

Option A: Public Market Data API (Read-only)

https://www.predictit.org/api/marketdata/all/

This endpoint provides market data but not trading capabilities.

Option B: Session Token (Advanced)

  1. Log in to PredictIt in your browser
  2. Open Developer Tools (F12)
  3. Go to Application → Cookies
  4. Find and copy the session cookie value

⚠️ Warning: Session tokens expire and may violate ToS. Use at your own risk.

3. Set Environment Variables

PREDICTIT_API_TOKEN=your_session_token  # If available
# OR
PREDICTIT_USERNAME=your_username
PREDICTIT_PASSWORD=your_password  # Less secure

Limitations

  • No official trading API
  • $850 maximum investment per market
  • 10% fee on profits
  • Limited automation support

AI Services Setup

OpenAI (GPT-4 / GPT-3.5)

  1. Go to OpenAI Platform
  2. Create an account or sign in
  3. Go to API Keys section
  4. Click "Create new secret key"
  5. Copy the key (starts with sk-)

Pricing: Pay-per-use. GPT-4 is ~$0.03/1K input tokens, $0.06/1K output tokens.

OPENAI_API_KEY=sk-...

Anthropic (Claude)

  1. Go to Anthropic Console
  2. Create an account
  3. Go to API Keys
  4. Generate a new key

Pricing: Similar to OpenAI. Claude 3 Opus is premium tier.

ANTHROPIC_API_KEY=sk-ant-...

xAI (Grok)

  1. Go to xAI
  2. Request API access (may have waitlist)
  3. Generate API key when available
XAI_API_KEY=your_xai_key

Recommended Configuration

For cost-effective operation:

# Use GPT-4 for primary analysis
OPENAI_API_KEY=sk-...
AI_MODEL=openai:gpt-4

# Set monthly budget limit
AI_MONTHLY_BUDGET=50.0

Polyseer Setup

Polyseer is an AI research assistant that requires a Valyu API key.

1. Get Valyu API Key

  1. Go to Valyu.ai
  2. Create an account
  3. Navigate to API settings
  4. Generate an API key

2. Set Environment Variables

VALYU_API_KEY=your_valyu_key
POLYSEER_ENABLED=true

Security Best Practices

DO:

  • ✅ Use dedicated wallets for trading
  • ✅ Store secrets in .env file (never commit to git)
  • ✅ Use environment variables, not hardcoded values
  • ✅ Rotate API keys periodically
  • ✅ Set spending limits where available
  • ✅ Start with DRY_RUN=1 for testing

DON'T:

  • ❌ Share API keys or private keys
  • ❌ Commit .env files to version control
  • ❌ Use your main crypto wallet
  • ❌ Store large amounts in trading wallets
  • ❌ Disable DRY_RUN without thorough testing

Troubleshooting

"Invalid API Key" Errors

  • Verify the key is copied correctly (no extra spaces)
  • Check if the key has expired
  • Ensure you're using the correct environment (prod vs sandbox)

"Rate Limited" Errors

  • Reduce request frequency
  • Implement exponential backoff
  • Check platform-specific rate limits

"Insufficient Funds" Errors

  • Verify wallet/account balance
  • Check for pending transactions
  • Ensure you have gas (for Polymarket)

Connection Errors

  • Verify RPC URL is correct
  • Check internet connectivity
  • Try alternative RPC endpoints

Quick Reference

Platform Key Variables Where to Get
Polymarket POLY_PRIVATE_KEY, POLY_RPC_URL MetaMask + Infura
Kalshi KALSHI_API_KEY, KALSHI_API_SECRET Kalshi Dashboard
Manifold MANIFOLD_API_KEY, MANIFOLD_USERNAME Manifold Profile
PredictIt PREDICTIT_API_TOKEN Browser DevTools
OpenAI OPENAI_API_KEY platform.openai.com
Anthropic ANTHROPIC_API_KEY console.anthropic.com
Polyseer VALYU_API_KEY valyu.ai