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CC-BY-SA, initially created by Simon Wardley.
| Stage | I | II | III | IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Characteristics | ||||
| Ubiquity | Rare | Slowly increasing consumption | Rapidly increasing consumption | Widespread and stabilising |
| Certainty | Poorly Understood | Rapid increases in learning | Rapid increases in use/fit for purpose | Commonly understood in terms of use |
| Publication Types | Normally descrive the wonder of the thing | Build / construct / awareness and learning | Maintenance / operations / installation / features | Focused on Use |
| General properties | ||||
| Market | Undefined | Forming | Growing | Mature |
| Knowledge management | Uncertain | Learning on use | Learing on operation | Known / accepted |
| Market perception | Chaotic | Domain of experts | Increasing expectation of use | Ordered / trivial |
| User perception | Different / confusing / exciting / surprising | Leading edge / emerging | Increasingly common, dissapointed if not used | Standard / expected |
| Perception in Industry | Competitive advantage / unpredictable / unknown/ experiment | Competitive advantage / ROI / case examples | Advantage through implementation / features | Cost of doing business |
| Focus on value | High future worth | Seeking profit / ROI | High profitability | High volume / reducing margin |
| Understanding | Poorly understood / unpredictable | Increasing understanding / development of measures | Increasing education / constant refinement of needs/measures | Believed to be well defined / stable / measurable |
| Comparison | Constantly changing / a differential / unstable | Learning from others / testing the water / some evidential support | Feature difference | Essential / operational advantage |
| Failure | High/tolerated/assumed | Moderate / unsurprising but dissapointed | Not tolerated/ focus on constant improvement | Operational efficiency and shocked1 by failure |
| Market action | Gambling / driven by gut | Exploring a "found" value | Market analysis / listening to customers | Metric driven / build what is needed |
| Efficiency | Reducing the cost of change (Experimentation) | Reducing the cost of waste (Learning) | Reducing the cost of waste (Learning) | Reducing cost of deviation (Volume) |
| Decision drivers | Heritage / culture | Analyses & synthesis | Analyses & synthesis | Previous experience |
Footnotes
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A change from Simon's official table. Initially there was 'surprised' but in Chris opinion it did not reflect the true meaning. ↩