From b76f3bee5ae43e95c04fd49f6a090a69685dc85e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Seongho Bae Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2026 20:38:52 +0900 Subject: [PATCH 1/9] docs(research): trace candidate combined item identities to upstream notebook --- docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md | 19 +++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 19 insertions(+) diff --git a/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md b/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md index 79ed68d60..15a9c023f 100644 --- a/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md +++ b/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md @@ -220,3 +220,22 @@ clipping or overlap. The capture remains in the task output; other viewports, locales and product UI remain uninspected. The existing Rust documentation test also passed (1 test, 1.61s; terminal command `c2e46a`); that algebra check is separate from the installed partition-rejection evidence above. + +### Combined-item identity source follow-up + +At the same upstream commit, root inspected zero-based cells 3, 6, 8, 12 and +86–88 of [the application notebook](https://github.com/Toby-X/Latency-Response-Theory-Model/blob/8cb9639eb162ff3732df82d4e190e7f902bde19d/notebooks/application_analysis.ipynb). +The inputs are the individual AIME24, AIME25 and AMC23 benchmark CSVs; +cell 12 lowercases row identifiers. Cell 86 concatenates those three matrices +in that order along columns, removes all-zero correctness rows from both +matrices, and cell 87 independently drops missing rows before cell 88 saves +the combined CSVs. This identifies a source-backed candidate mapping: +columns 1–30 AIME24, 31–60 AIME25, and 61–100 AMC23 (one-based). + +This is source inspection, not execution provenance or verified byte/content +equivalence. Before using that mapping, compare every retained row and column +against the pinned individual matrices, check lowercasing collisions, and +assert accuracy/length row alignment after the independent missing-row filters. +Keep benchmark identity and original item label together; neither the repeated +label alone nor an assumed concatenation order is sufficient. No estimator +was executed and the real-data KPI remains unmeasured. From be4d7229482fd23b329207e3a21dba95e459e088 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Seongho Bae Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2026 20:40:06 +0900 Subject: [PATCH 2/9] docs(research): record exact combined token-count offset audit --- docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md | 20 ++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 20 insertions(+) diff --git a/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md b/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md index 15a9c023f..7e996d749 100644 --- a/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md +++ b/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md @@ -239,3 +239,23 @@ assert accuracy/length row alignment after the independent missing-row filters. Keep benchmark identity and original item label together; neither the repeated label alone nor an assumed concatenation order is sufficient. No estimator was executed and the real-data KPI remains unmeasured. + +Root independently checked all eight pinned CSVs in isolated Python using +stdlib CSV and exact decimal subtraction (terminal session `20966`, exit 0). +All 12,800 combined correctness cells equal the corresponding individual +matrix cells. Every combined length cell instead equals its individual +source plus one: 12,800 of 12,800. Headers match the stated concatenation; +there are no lowercase row-ID collisions in any input, and both combined +matrices have the same ordered 128 row IDs. This verifies the retained-cell +mapping, not the completeness of excluded observations or benchmark provenance. +Combined length SHA-256: +`ae180f278e8c838a7fa81c1554ce7f4391fd375637feaa8fa8474b07c4999f01`. + +Cell 87 increments the array returned by `cot_df_3.to_numpy()` before cell 88 +saves the frame. Shared array storage is a plausible explanation for the +observed shift, not established historical execution provenance. Any proposed +calibration must explicitly distinguish individual raw counts from this +already-shifted combined matrix; do not silently add one again. Existing +application results require a separate preprocessing-path audit before their +numerical interpretation is accepted. No published-result error magnitude or +customer KPI improvement has been established. From 05275aaec505f3f44ea736ccd534c23aa98eae54 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Seongho Bae Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2026 20:41:21 +0900 Subject: [PATCH 3/9] docs(research): trace predictive preprocessing offset and remaining acceptance gates --- docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md | 23 +++++++++++++++++++++++ docs/product-technical-gap-baseline.md | 9 +++++++++ 2 files changed, 32 insertions(+) diff --git a/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md b/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md index 7e996d749..3d5b28f96 100644 --- a/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md +++ b/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md @@ -259,3 +259,26 @@ already-shifted combined matrix; do not silently add one again. Existing application results require a separate preprocessing-path audit before their numerical interpretation is accepted. No published-result error magnitude or customer KPI improvement has been established. + +### Predictive application preprocessing follow-up + +Root read the complete pinned +[predictive application](https://github.com/Toby-X/Latency-Response-Theory-Model/blob/8cb9639eb162ff3732df82d4e190e7f902bde19d/applications/predictive_power.py) +on 2026-09-12. `load_combined_benchmarks()` adds `1.0` to the combined +length matrix. `main()` passes that result to training and held-out evaluation; +`cross_validated_mae()` takes its logarithm for held-out trait inference. +Together with the exact retained-cell comparison above, this path uses +`log(individual_count + 2)` for that inference, not +`log(individual_count + 1)`. This conclusion follows from current pinned +source and matrix values; the script was not imported or executed, and no +claim is made that a particular published table was produced by this revision. + +Before adopting this evaluation, specify the intended count offset once at +the data boundary and compare both preprocessing choices on a frozen, +group-held-out cohort using the owner estimator. Do not silently subtract +one from all files: individual and combined files have different observed +representations. Historical result attribution, fitted-parameter sensitivity +and downstream accuracy effects remain unverified. The previous section at +`c2d98e87` was directly inspected in a browser at 1265 × 712, English, +`http://127.0.0.1:18774/lart`; the complete section was readable without +observed clipping or overlap. That visual receipt excludes this new addition. diff --git a/docs/product-technical-gap-baseline.md b/docs/product-technical-gap-baseline.md index de900596f..f07f1f966 100644 --- a/docs/product-technical-gap-baseline.md +++ b/docs/product-technical-gap-baseline.md @@ -3884,3 +3884,12 @@ boundary. Public matrices do not supply CO decision timestamps or known true latent parameters, so neither decision-p95 nor true-parameter RMSE can be claimed from this retrospective experiment. Data rights, grouping verification, owner implementation and observed gains remain open; no route default changes. + +The [combined-item and preprocessing follow-up](doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md#predictive-application-preprocessing-follow-up) +now verifies the benchmark-qualified retained-cell mapping against all eight +pinned source matrices. Correctness matches in all 12,800 cells; combined +length values are individually shifted by one in all 12,800 cells. The pinned +predictive loader adds another one before held-out log transformation. +Freeze the intended offset and test preprocessing sensitivity before adopting +its results. This narrows the item-identity gap but does not resolve model +family lineage, dataset rights, estimator validation or measured customer gain. From 83f12d54d6d09461f8175bcc7c44c7f00dfc7696 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Seongho Bae Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2026 20:42:19 +0900 Subject: [PATCH 4/9] docs(research): record predictive preprocessing visual receipt --- docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md | 8 ++++++++ 1 file changed, 8 insertions(+) diff --git a/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md b/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md index 3d5b28f96..abf6e5de3 100644 --- a/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md +++ b/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md @@ -282,3 +282,11 @@ and downstream accuracy effects remain unverified. The previous section at `c2d98e87` was directly inspected in a browser at 1265 × 712, English, `http://127.0.0.1:18774/lart`; the complete section was readable without observed clipping or overlap. That visual receipt excludes this new addition. + +Follow-up receipt: root directly inspected the complete predictive-preprocessing +section at `75c9d293`, same URL, English and 1265 × 712 viewport. Paragraphs, +code spans and the source link were readable without observed clipping or +overlap. Other viewports/locales and the Gap document were not visually +inspected in this receipt. At that exact source, the six citation/role-contract +tests passed with warnings treated as errors in 1.17s; they do not validate +upstream estimation or prove a customer KPI gain. From 929dcfc72f7025f1f40f0bc82e3f7d919922c3f0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Seongho Bae Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2026 20:44:27 +0900 Subject: [PATCH 5/9] docs(research): establish raw-count owner contract and preserve successor lineage --- docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md | 29 +++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 29 insertions(+) diff --git a/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md b/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md index abf6e5de3..2f35c1115 100644 --- a/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md +++ b/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md @@ -290,3 +290,32 @@ overlap. Other viewports/locales and the Gap document were not visually inspected in this receipt. At that exact source, the six citation/role-contract tests passed with warnings treated as errors in 1.17s; they do not validate upstream estimation or prove a customer KPI gain. + +### Owner repair contract and retained lineage + +The separate `codex/lart-preprocessing-contract-20260912` branch preserves +all four preprocessing-document commits from research head `b4887c28`. +Both affected documentation files compared byte-identically after cherry-pick +at `83f12d54`. This is local succession only: no successor PR or runtime +repair is verified, so the predecessor documents must not yet be reverted. + +Root independently read the pinned estimator's lines 413–517 and the +item-efficiency loader's first 85 lines. The estimator takes the logarithm +of positive `T`; the individual update accepts `log_T` without adding one. +The second application also adds one to the combined CSV. Do not attribute +a unit pseudocount to the estimator. The primary +[data contract](https://github.com/Toby-X/Latency-Response-Theory-Model/blob/8cb9639eb162ff3732df82d4e190e7f902bde19d/data/README.md#L16) +describes stored token counts with applications adding one; the +[matrix builder](https://github.com/Toby-X/Latency-Response-Theory-Model/blob/8cb9639eb162ff3732df82d4e190e7f902bde19d/data_generation/build_matrices.py#L32) +exports `cot_tokens` without a unit shift. These support a raw-count artifact +contract, not proof of historical intent or a paper-mandated pseudocount. + +The canonical defective artifact/export belongs to the upstream LaRT project, +not CO's router. Prefer restoring raw-count export while retaining exactly one +application pseudocount; alternatively preserve the historical artifact with +explicit shifted semantics and repair both consuming loaders. Either change +needs upstream patch provenance and source-backed regression expectations, +including zero, missing, transformed-input and row-alignment boundaries. +Do not create a CO subtraction workaround or copy the estimator. Actual +estimator execution and finite-output checks remain required after the chosen +owner patch; current evidence is source inspection and data comparison only. From 7128685b1bdaf05a3570925585e7e4e6d8e160b1 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Seongho Bae Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2026 20:57:59 +0900 Subject: [PATCH 6/9] docs(research): connect upstream count fix and reproducible verification boundaries --- AGENTS.md | 4 +++ CLAUDE.md | 4 +++ docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md | 34 +++++++++++++++++++++++ 3 files changed, 42 insertions(+) diff --git a/AGENTS.md b/AGENTS.md index e939019bf..7e28b8b13 100644 --- a/AGENTS.md +++ b/AGENTS.md @@ -17,6 +17,10 @@ agent (Claude, Codex, Cursor, opencode, …). Keep this file tool-agnostic. ## Autonomous research handoff +For LaRT count preprocessing, read the [upstream handoff](docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md#upstream-patch-handoff). +Preserve versioned encoded counts; do not copy an estimator or subtract a +heuristic offset in CO. Dataframe loading is not estimator or KPI evidence. + Read [the KPI runbook](docs/doctoring/autonomous_kpi_runbook.md) before numerical experiments and update its verified evidence before handoff. Choose KPI scope autonomously under `docs/analytics_spec.md`. Preserve live execution handles; diff --git a/CLAUDE.md b/CLAUDE.md index daf265edd..c14e26296 100644 --- a/CLAUDE.md +++ b/CLAUDE.md @@ -16,6 +16,10 @@ This file provides guidance to Claude Code (claude.ai/code) when working with co ## Read AGENTS.md first +LaRT count-encoding work is owned by the [upstream patch and handoff](docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md#upstream-patch-handoff). +Reuse its commands and distinguish scalar contract checks, real dataframe +loading and unverified estimator integration; do not reapply a pseudocount. + For autonomous experiments, also read and maintain [the single KPI runbook](docs/doctoring/autonomous_kpi_runbook.md). It records commands, environment limits, failed interpretations, and evidence diff --git a/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md b/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md index 2f35c1115..4f13f21ac 100644 --- a/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md +++ b/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md @@ -319,3 +319,37 @@ including zero, missing, transformed-input and row-alignment boundaries. Do not create a CO subtraction workaround or copy the estimator. Actual estimator execution and finite-output checks remain required after the chosen owner patch; current evidence is source inspection and data comparison only. + +### Upstream patch handoff + +[Upstream Draft PR #2](https://github.com/Toby-X/Latency-Response-Theory-Model/pull/2) +owns the two-loader correction at +`e5c82a91918a26fab469efd9f04d5152088b5c84`, via the personal fork +`seonghobae/Latency-Response-Theory-Model`. The canonical upstream permission +was read-only. No artifact values or estimator code were changed. The chosen +compatibility contract preserves the pinned combined count-plus-one encoding; +it is not proof of historical author intent. CO does not import this branch. + +Local upstream checkout: `/tmp/lart-upstream-contract-20260912`. At that head, +`python -m unittest discover -s validation -p 'test_*.py' -v` passed four +tests in 0.127s with installed numpy 2.3.5/pandas 2.2.3; actionlint passed. +The exact extracted predictive loader reads real CSVs, preserves all 12,800 +encoded values, produces finite logs and rejects shape/row-order mismatch. +Separate scalar-frame conversion checks cover both consumers; artifact checks +cover 25,600 cells. These are not full module or estimator execution. + +Failed attempts and limits: the CO interpreter lacked pandas; the bundled +analysis interpreter lacked scipy. No dependencies were installed. The first +fork command used an unsupported `--remote` option; retry without that option +created the verified personal fork. The original raw-count equality failure +was downgraded to a provenance probe; the selected encoded-consumption contract +then produced six RED scalar cases at `911fcb1` and GREEN at `3c52a82`. +CI called undeclared pytest and a nonexistent tests directory; the owner patch +uses stdlib unittest discovery and the actual regression files instead. + +The upstream PR remains Draft. Hosted acceptance, full estimator output, +statistical effects and release are unverified. Research PR #1107's document +delta remains preserved until the separate CO successor is published and +fully compared; the existence of the upstream PR alone does not authorize its +revert. Earlier source-only status above is superseded only by these explicitly +bounded loading checks. New handoff text still requires visual inspection. From 2c7d238200c0ba00f91e52c4b145b3126c4eb6ec Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Seongho Bae Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2026 21:02:27 +0900 Subject: [PATCH 7/9] docs: distinguish upstream approval from workflow failure --- docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md | 9 ++++++++- 1 file changed, 8 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md b/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md index 4f13f21ac..d712eb97a 100644 --- a/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md +++ b/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md @@ -347,7 +347,14 @@ then produced six RED scalar cases at `911fcb1` and GREEN at `3c52a82`. CI called undeclared pytest and a nonexistent tests directory; the owner patch uses stdlib unittest discovery and the actual regression files instead. -The upstream PR remains Draft. Hosted acceptance, full estimator output, +The upstream PR remains Draft. Hosted run +[34692344683](https://github.com/Toby-X/Latency-Response-Theory-Model/actions/runs/34692344683) +at the same head awaits upstream maintainer approval. The coordinating reviewer +directly inspected its “Action required” / awaiting-approval screen; the earlier +“no jobs” interpretation was withdrawn. This is an approval boundary, not +evidence of another workflow source defect. Do not change permissions or CI to +bypass it. The independent pytest/lint-path repairs remain justified above. +Hosted acceptance, full estimator output, statistical effects and release are unverified. Research PR #1107's document delta remains preserved until the separate CO successor is published and fully compared; the existence of the upstream PR alone does not authorize its From 31f3bf8e55e3043819a32f60afa40e62d08626b0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Seongho Bae Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2026 21:04:48 +0900 Subject: [PATCH 8/9] docs: clarify selected count contract and visual verification scope --- docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md | 23 ++++++++++++++++------- 1 file changed, 16 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md b/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md index d712eb97a..fd6569139 100644 --- a/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md +++ b/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md @@ -296,8 +296,10 @@ upstream estimation or prove a customer KPI gain. The separate `codex/lart-preprocessing-contract-20260912` branch preserves all four preprocessing-document commits from research head `b4887c28`. Both affected documentation files compared byte-identically after cherry-pick -at `83f12d54`. This is local succession only: no successor PR or runtime -repair is verified, so the predecessor documents must not yet be reverted. +at `83f12d54`. This was a local succession receipt, not runtime repair proof. +Draft [CO PR #1139](https://github.com/ContextualWisdomLab/contextual-orchestrator/pull/1139) +now stacks on #1107; complete visual/delta succession remains pending, so the +predecessor documents must not yet be reverted. Root independently read the pinned estimator's lines 413–517 and the item-efficiency loader's first 85 lines. The estimator takes the logarithm @@ -310,10 +312,11 @@ describes stored token counts with applications adding one; the exports `cot_tokens` without a unit shift. These support a raw-count artifact contract, not proof of historical intent or a paper-mandated pseudocount. -The canonical defective artifact/export belongs to the upstream LaRT project, -not CO's router. Prefer restoring raw-count export while retaining exactly one -application pseudocount; alternatively preserve the historical artifact with -explicit shifted semantics and repair both consuming loaders. Either change +The artifact/export contract belongs to the upstream LaRT project, not CO's +router. The alternatives considered were restoring raw-count export with one +application pseudocount, or preserving the historical artifact with explicit +shifted semantics and repairing both consuming loaders. The latter was selected +in the handoff below; the historical intent remains unknown. Either change needs upstream patch provenance and source-backed regression expectations, including zero, missing, transformed-input and row-alignment boundaries. Do not create a CO subtraction workaround or copy the estimator. Actual @@ -359,4 +362,10 @@ statistical effects and release are unverified. Research PR #1107's document delta remains preserved until the separate CO successor is published and fully compared; the existence of the upstream PR alone does not authorize its revert. Earlier source-only status above is superseded only by these explicitly -bounded loading checks. New handoff text still requires visual inspection. +bounded loading checks. At `0a2745d71b8f6a4771efdb1f7b0366d6e6acbe32`, root +directly inspected the complete handoff body in GitHub's browser preview at +1265 × 712, English, with the file tree collapsed. Text, command spans and +links wrapped without observed clipping or overlap. The heading, preceding +owner-contract section, AGENTS, CLAUDE and Gap baseline were not covered by +that screenshot; full successor visual acceptance remains pending. This +receipt does not cover the subsequent chronology clarification above. From 0024522146803627b8741470ebefaf79ffa4a310 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Seongho Bae Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2026 21:05:45 +0900 Subject: [PATCH 9/9] docs: record independent visual scope and algebra verification --- docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md | 14 ++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 14 insertions(+) diff --git a/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md b/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md index fd6569139..3640d97d2 100644 --- a/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md +++ b/docs/doctoring/lart_measurement_review.md @@ -369,3 +369,17 @@ links wrapped without observed clipping or overlap. The heading, preceding owner-contract section, AGENTS, CLAUDE and Gap baseline were not covered by that screenshot; full successor visual acceptance remains pending. This receipt does not cover the subsequent chronology clarification above. + +The coordinating reviewer independently inspected PR #1139 at that same +`0a2745d71b8f6a4771efdb1f7b0366d6e6acbe32` head in Chromium, 1265 × 712, +English/default GitHub rendering: Draft header, stacked base, eight commits, +three changed files, +78 lines, body links/SHA and the doctoring handoff diff. +The AGENTS/CLAUDE file-tree entries were visible; this does not establish that +their complete rendered contents were inspected. No clipping, overlap or +horizontal overflow was reported in those views. Gap rendering remains pending. +At `31f3bf8e55e3043819a32f60afa40e62d08626b0`, the Rust documentation check +above passed one test in 2.92s (session 27094). This verifies only the finite +matrix algebra example, not upstream estimation or a real-data KPI. The Gap +file has no delta against the retained research base. No predecessor evidence +has been removed. These verification records are historical exact-head +receipts; later receipt-only commits do not retroactively expand their scope.