diff --git a/benchmarks/projection_headroom.py b/benchmarks/projection_headroom.py
new file mode 100644
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+++ b/benchmarks/projection_headroom.py
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+"""Whether attention projections have anything to give, at matched bf16.
+
+The q, k, v and o projections are about a quarter of a decode token and have no meTile path, which
+makes them look like the obvious next thing to serve. They are not, and this measures why rather than
+arguing it: at one row MLX already runs them at or above the streaming ceiling, so there is nothing
+for a kernel to win.
+
+    shape                    rows   MLX GB/s   gap   meTile   bit-exact
+    Qwen2.5-1.5B q/o            1        148   0.8x   0.967x   yes
+    Qwen2.5-1.5B k/v            1        242   0.5x   0.780x   yes
+    Qwen3-8B q/o                1        120   1.0x   0.990x   yes
+    Qwen3-8B k/v                1        148   0.8x   0.991x   yes
+
+A gap below 1.0x means the weights are cache-resident and the DRAM ceiling is not even the limit. At
+eight rows it is still parity. Only at thirty-two rows does a win appear, 1.30x to 1.57x, and that is
+batch or prefill rather than decode; two of the four shapes stop being bit-exact there, so routing it
+would trade the logit-equality contract for a win outside the case the task was about.
+
+Amortisation is the whole methodology here and it is easy to get wrong in the direction of good news.
+An earlier version of this measurement used enough inner dispatches for 64 MB of weight traffic per
+eval. For a 4.7 MB projection that is thirteen dispatches, about 390 us of work against a roughly
+200 us `mx.eval` round trip, so nearly a third of every sample was overhead -- and because the two
+sides pay it differently it reported MLX at 52 GB/s and meTile at 1.828x. Both were fiction. Targeting
+a gigabyte per eval puts the round trip near 2% and the same shape reads 148 GB/s at 0.967x.
+
+If a measurement of a small kernel shows a large win, suspect the harness first.
+"""
+
+import argparse
+import statistics
+import sys
+import time
+from pathlib import Path
+
+_root = str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent)
+sys.path.insert(0, _root)
+
+from metile.target import agx
+
+# Real projection shapes: (label, hidden, output features). Grouped-query attention makes k and v much
+# narrower than q and o, and the two behave differently, so both are measured.
+SHAPES = (
+    ("Qwen2.5-1.5B q/o", 1536, 1536),
+    ("Qwen2.5-1.5B k/v", 1536, 256),
+    ("Qwen3-8B q/o", 4096, 4096),
+    ("Qwen3-8B k/v", 4096, 1024),
+)
+ROWS = (1, 8, 32)
+
+# Weight traffic per eval. The round trip is fixed, so this decides the error floor: a gigabyte is
+# about 8ms at the streaming ceiling, putting a 200us round trip at 2.5%.
+TRAFFIC_TARGET = 1e9
+
+
+def _arguments():
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__)
+    parser.add_argument("--rounds", type=int, default=9)
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--traffic",
+        type=float,
+        default=TRAFFIC_TARGET,
+        help="weight bytes per eval; lowering this reintroduces round-trip error",
+    )
+    return parser.parse_args()
+
+
+def _inner(hidden, output_features, traffic):
+    return max(16, min(1024, int(traffic // (output_features * hidden * 2))))
+
+
+def _median(mx, build, inner, rounds):
+    for _ in range(3):
+        mx.eval([build() for _ in range(inner)])
+    mx.synchronize()
+    samples = []
+    for _ in range(rounds):
+        started = time.perf_counter_ns()
+        mx.eval([build() for _ in range(inner)])
+        samples.append((time.perf_counter_ns() - started) / inner / 1e9)
+    return statistics.median(samples)
+
+
+def main():
+    arguments = _arguments()
+    try:
+        import mlx.core as mx
+    except ImportError:
+        print("mlx is required")
+        return 1
+
+    from metile.backends.mlx_dense import MLXDenseWeight, mlx_dense_matmul
+
+    ceiling = agx.STREAMING_READ_GBPS
+    print(f"attention projections, matched bf16, streaming ceiling {ceiling} GB/s")
+    print(f"{int(arguments.traffic / 1e6)} MB of weight traffic per eval\n")
+    header = (
+        f"{'shape':<20}{'rows':>5}{'inner':>7}{'MLX GB/s':>10}{'gap':>7}{'meTile':>9}{'exact':>7}"
+    )
+    print(header)
+    print("-" * len(header))
+
+    for label, hidden, output_features in SHAPES:
+        inner = _inner(hidden, output_features, arguments.traffic)
+        for rows in ROWS:
+            mx.random.seed(0)
+            dense = mx.random.normal((output_features, hidden)).astype(mx.bfloat16)
+            values = mx.random.normal((rows, hidden)).astype(mx.bfloat16)
+            mx.eval(dense, values)
+            weight = MLXDenseWeight.from_mlx(dense)
+            mx.eval(weight.k_major)
+
+            def native(values=values, dense=dense):
+                return values @ dense.T
+
+            def generated(values=values, weight=weight):
+                return mlx_dense_matmul(values, weight)
+
+            produced, reference = generated(), native()
+            mx.eval(produced, reference)
+            exact = bool(mx.array_equal(produced, reference).item())
+
+            base = _median(mx, native, inner, arguments.rounds)
+            ours = _median(mx, generated, inner, arguments.rounds)
+            gbps = (output_features * hidden * 2) / base / 1e9
+            print(
+                f"{label:<20}{rows:>5}{inner:>7}{gbps:>10.0f}{ceiling / gbps:>6.1f}x"
+                f"{base / ours:>8.3f}x{'yes' if exact else 'NO':>7}"
+            )
+
+    print("\ngap is the ceiling divided by what MLX achieves: what any kernel could win.")
+    print("Below 1.0x the weights are cache-resident and DRAM is not the limit at all.")
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    raise SystemExit(main())